Southwell (AW) 20:00 RESULTED
Class 5 22 Sep 2026

Tuesday 22 September Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes · 4f214y

Official Result

Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Courageous Sioux (GB) Rossa Ryan · Clive Cox
    5/1
  2. Second Goyard (IRE)
    4/1
  3. 12/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Beverley

13:30–17:35 · 8 races

Listowel

13:47–17:16 · 7 races

Warwick

13:55–16:48 · 6 races

Fontwell

14:12–17:07 · 6 races

Southwell (AW)

16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Rogue Bullet silks
Rogue Bullet
Age 4 · 9-10
514328
75
66
77
4
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 FCST 17/2
Rogue Bullet shaped with real promise when second two starts back and third three starts back, and he has experience of today's distance and going in his favour; the worry is whether he can bounce back after finishing eighth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Goyard silks
Goyard
Age 4 · 9-9
384576
74
74
76
4
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/1 9/2
Winless in his last six starts, Goyard nonetheless shaped with promise when fourth four starts back and offers solid claims here from stall one carrying 135 lb, with experience over today's trip and going a further boost; the main risk is his return just three days ago.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Managing Director silks
Managing Director
Age 4 · 9-8
8/5320
73
85
79
4
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
5/4 7/4 6/5
Placed second and third in recent starts, Managing Director brings solid each-way claims having run over today's trip, and his rating of 79 ranks him second among these seven; the concern is he's been winless in his last five and was unplaced last time out just 16 days ago.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Brazilian Belle silks
Brazilian Belle
Age 4 · 9-7
-31160
72
80
74
4
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
12/1 9/1 12/1
Brazilian Belle won two of her last five starts but has been beaten in each of her last two outings, and 129 days off the track is a significant fitness query; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 133 lb from stall two is the hand she plays.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Hanney Girl silks
Hanney Girl
Age 3 · 9-5
399442
71
81
83
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 10/3 13/2
Hanney Girl shaped with plenty of promise when second last time out, and having run over today's distance and going she arrives here well placed on conditions; winless in her last six starts is the one caveat, but her rating of 83 marks her as the one to beat from stall seven.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Courageous Sioux silks
Courageous Sioux
Age 3 · 9-5
5-1
71
75
65
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 7/4 9/2
A winner last time out gives Courageous Sioux a live form line, but the 80-day absence and a rating six points below her official mark make her hard to fancy at the foot of the field, with the distance experience her one genuine tick in the column.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Dance of Angels silks
Dance of Angels
Age 3 · 9-4
34-5
70
49
61
3
9-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
12/1 14/1 11/1
Winless in her last three starts, with a fifth last time out and a third three starts back, Dance of Angels also returns after a 147-day absence, and our rating of 61 leaves her looking well held at the foot of the rankings despite experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Rogue Bullet 10/1 open 13.00 17/2 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 10/1 17/2 open 12.00 10/1 Bet365
2 Goyard 5/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.00 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.00 5/1 Bet365
3 Managing Director 5/4 open 5.00 5/4 open 4.00 5/4 open 4.50 5/4 open 4.50 6/5 open 4.50 6/5 open 2.75 5/4 Bet365
4 Brazilian Belle 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 Bet365
5 Hanney Girl 13/2 open 4.33 13/2 open 4.50 7/1 open 4.33 7/1 open 4.33 7/1 open 4.33 7/1 open 4.50 7/1 Coral
6 Courageous Sioux 5/1 open 2.75 11/2 open 3.25 9/2 open 3.00 9/2 open 3.00 11/2 open 2.88 6/1 open 3.25 6/1 Betfred
7 Dance of Angels 12/1 open 15.00 16/1 11/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 17.00 16/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Managing Director

Speculative

Managing Director owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/4 Geoff Oldroyd P. J. McDonald
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Hanney Girl

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/2 · Tim Easterby
✓ Value Signal

Brazilian Belle

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

12/1 · Michael Dods
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Managing Director
54.4 5/4
2 5. Hanney Girl
51.9 13/2
3 2. Goyard
51.3 5/1
4 4. Brazilian Belle
48.9 12/1
5 6. Courageous Sioux
48.5 5/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Managing Director
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 4 · 9-8
5/4
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-9
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-5
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-5
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 9-10
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 9-7
12/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-4
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 49 🐾 —

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Managing Director
Confidence: Medium

Managing Director (SR 85, 7/4) is the class standout in this field and the market has moved decisively in his favour, shortening 33% since opening — the strongest market move in the race by some distance. His GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good surface better than any rival, and the drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) puts him in a contest where his SR of 85 is comfortably the highest. At 9-8 he carries a manageable weight, only 1lb above Brazilian Belle who is 5lb his inferior on SR. The form reading 8/5320 shows a recent placed effort and a yard (Geoff Oldroyd, 19% strike rate from a small but active string) that clearly has this horse in form — P.J. McDonald's booking adds further confidence. Each-way alternative: Brazilian Belle. Main danger: Brazilian Belle — Brazilian Belle (SR 80, 8/1) has a course record of W1P2 at Southwell — a genuine course specialist — has tightened 13% in the market, and at 9-7 is 1lb lighter than Managing Director; a 129-day break is the concern but the money is coming for her.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reading 8/5320 shows a win is absent in recent starts — the '0' (last run) means he finished last, and a 16-day turnaround after a poor effort raises questions about whether that run exposed a c…
  • Geoff Oldroyd's yard has a small active string (124 runners) making that 19% SR potentially volatile — a tiny sample where one hot spell can flatter the metric considerably.
  • Goyard (SR:74) had just 3 days since last run, suggesting a trainer confident in peak fitness, and Oisin Murphy's 22% strike rate is the best jockey stat in the race — sharper freshness vs Managing D…
  • At 7/4 (implying ~36% win probability) the market has already priced Managing Director tight; with the slash form figure suggesting an earlier campaign break, any residual fitness doubt makes the pri…
Shortlist Managing Director, Brazilian Belle, Goyard, Courageous Sioux
Each-way: Brazilian Belle Danger: Brazilian Belle

🗺 The Course Class 5

4f214y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade