Edwardtheninth showed his best when winning last time out and was a winner three starts back too, giving him two wins in his last six, but a third in between suggests inconsistency, and 140 lb is no easy burden despite having run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6945131
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR61RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Further Measure arrives here 19 days fresh, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 70 puts him clear of his rivals at the head of this field; winless in his last six starts, but consistent proximity figures make him the one to beat.
Form last 6447565
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR70RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.
Returned a winner two starts back and a winner five starts back, Lady of Clover also has going experience in her favour, though a fourth last time out and carrying 132 lb are the checks on her claims here.
Form last 6314314
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
60SR61RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Fabled Spirit won last time out and has placed in two of his three most recent starts, giving him a lively current profile, though patchy earlier form and a mark of 58 suggest he remains exposed at this level.
Form last 6080321
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR61RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rogue Desire catches the eye on our rating, sitting ahead of several rivals in the field, and has run over today's going — though her recent placings of fifth, fifth, seventh and fifth suggests a win remains elusive.
Form last 63-5755
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
33SR61RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 33 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Head Girl shaped well when second last time out, and her win two starts back shows she can deliver on a going she has already experienced — the main risk is that her finishing ninth three starts back hints at inconsistency.
Form last 6-93912
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
64SR64RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Last Flight has shown some ability — a winner last time out and placed on two of her four previous starts — but ranked ninth of ten on our figures with a speed rating of 55, she faces a stiff ask at 130 lb here.
Form last 6775331
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
72SR60RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Galahad Threepwood rates significantly higher than his official mark of 45 suggests, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions, but he has been winless in his last five starts and will need to find a sharper turn of foot to convert that latent promise.
Form last 65/7786
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
33SR66RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 33 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in his last six starts, Sir Griflet has at least shown consistency of late with back-to-back thirds, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions; however, ranked eighth of ten on our figures, he faces a stiff task.
Form last 6600433
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
58SR60RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last four starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Stopherandgo faces a stiff ask here, though she has been running regularly and returns on a fresh enough 15-day break carrying 127 lb off an official mark of 34.
Form last 60746
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
15SR39RPR34OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 15 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Fabled Spirit owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Archie WatsonLuke Morris
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Last Flight
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/5 · James Horton✓ Value Signal
Stopherandgo
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · David Flood◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Last Flight (SR:72, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin over Edwardtheninth and Fabled Spirit (both SR:68), and crucially carries only 9-4 — a significant weight advantage over top-weight Edwardtheninth (10-0). The form string 775331 shows a progressive improver who won last time out at the same class level (ClassMv:=), and the market has backed this up emphatically with a 23% market move in since opening — the only genuine steamer in the race. Jockey Daniel Muscutt (14% strike rate from 1,706 career rides) is a quality booking, and GoingFit:~ on good ground is not a concern at this level. The combination of top SR, lightest competitive weight, recent winning form, and meaningful market support makes this a clear selection.
Each-way alternative: Edwardtheninth.
Main danger: Edwardtheninth — Edwardtheninth (SR:68, 7/2) has Course:W1P3 — genuine course specialist form at Southwell — and a recent winning run (form 945131) at the same class, making him the most credible threat despite carrying 10-0.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Last Flight is unproven at Southwell AW — no Course W/P record listed, unlike Edwardtheninth (W1P3) and Further Measure (W3P4) who have demonstrated ability on this specific Fibresand surface.
26 days since last run is the longest layoff among the leading fancies; form string 775331 shows the wins came at the tail of a progressive sequence that may now attract harsher assessments or stiffe…
GoingFit:~ with no HG code recorded suggests no proven all-weather or Fibresand experience — Southwell's unique surface regularly catches horses out who haven't handled it before.
Trainer James Horton has an 11% strike rate from only 390 rides — a modest operation, and at 9/4 the margin for error is slim if anything goes wrong on an unfamiliar surface.
ShortlistLast Flight, Edwardtheninth, Fabled Spirit, Sir Griflet