Lightly raced on the back of a win six starts back, La Belle Forest has experience over today's trip and going and carries a manageable 135 lb from stall seven, with our rating of 69 suggesting she merits serious respect; the risk is that her last five outings have not reproduced that winning effort.
Form last 6176647
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR69RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Koffee And Kale has shown his best form in recent starts, finishing second last time out just seven days ago, and he has run over today's distance and going before, giving connections plenty of encouragement; winless in his last six, he remains the one to beat on our ratings here.
Form last 6574642
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR73RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Stoneacre Joe has shown consistency without a win, posting two consecutive thirds in recent starts, though a run of fourths and fifths deeper in his form suggests he finds one or two too good; he has run over today's trip before and returns on a quick turnaround of 14 days carrying 132 lb from stall nine.
Form last 6845433
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR57RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Torbados shaped with plenty of promise when second two starts back, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions to call upon, but his recent pattern in the last six starts without a win is the chief concern.
Form last 6054624
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR66RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Overbudget has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 63 puts her ahead of her official mark, suggesting she retains ability — but her recent sequence of disappointing efforts makes a turnaround the main risk.
Form last 6837698
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR63RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, with a best recent effort of second, Mister Moet has the experience of today's trip and going in his favour but faces a stiff task off 129 lb from stall one, and his form has been edging in the right direction of late.
Form last 6244579
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR60RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Winless in her last five starts and not seen out for 54 days, Imagine That heads into this with fitness questions to answer, though she has run over today's trip before and a step forward from her recent string of fourths and fifths cannot be ruled out from stall two.
Form last 6-05545
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR57RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Finished fourth last time out, though a winner four starts back and placed third and second in between shows a consistent profile; he has experience of today's trip and going, but his official rating of 53 and a fourth in his most recent outing give pause.
Form last 6421324
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
63SR59RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts, Long Shot's official mark of 46 and a ranking of ninth of twelve on our figures make him hard to fancy, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a quick thirteen-day turnaround.
Form last 6240475
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR55RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 11 of 12 on our figures, Audere is hard to fancy on recent form, though she has run over today's distance and going before and 26 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh.
Form last 6686-46
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR48RPR43OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Independent Angel faces a stiff task here; a fourth three starts back offers a rare glimmer, but her overall profile makes her hard to fancy at the weights.
Form last 6-00470
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR42RPR42OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Winless in her last six starts, Music And Song heads here ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, and that poor recent string makes her very hard to fancy; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 44 days between runs at least suggests she arrives fresh.
Form last 6045896
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
21SR49RPR39OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 21 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Koffee And Kale owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Michael BellHector Crouch
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
My Mate Mackley
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Adam Kirby✓ Value Signal
Independent Angel
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · Lisa Williamson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Koffee And Kale (SR:69, 9/4) is the clear class leader in this field by a meaningful margin — 6 SR points ahead of the next-best My Mate Mackley (SR:63) and 13+ points clear of most rivals. Crucially, a MarkMv:-15 means the horse is running off a mark 15lb lower than at last win, a massive handicap concession in its favour. GoingFit:+ confirms it handles today's Good going, and the visor headgear suggests connections are targeting a positive response. Michael Bell (13%) with Hector Crouch (18%) is a competent pairing, and at 9/4 the market has it right as favourite here.
Each-way alternative: My Mate Mackley.
Main danger: Overbudget — Overbudget (SR:55, 9/1) has steamed in 27% in the market — the sharpest move in the field — suggesting stable confidence, and while the SR is modest the market money is too significant to ignore entirely.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Recent form reads 574642 — no win in last 6 starts and finished 2nd just once; a horse running 15lb below last winning mark suggests that win may be stale or form has regressed significantly since.
Visor (v) is a first-time or reapplied gear change, which can be a red flag of a horse that has been disappointing connections — not always the positive spin the primary analyst implies.
My Mate Mackley (SR:63, 5/1) has shown more consistent recent form (421324) and while 6 SR points below, is only 7lb worse off at the weights, narrowing the gap considerably in practice.
No course form noted for Koffee And Kale at Southwell AW — a track with highly specific characteristics (Fibresand) that can catch out horses without proven course affinity.
ShortlistKoffee And Kale, My Mate Mackley, Overbudget, Torbados