Southwell (AW) 19:00 RESULTED
Class 6 22 Sep 2026

Tuesday 22 September Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes · 6f16y

Official Result

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Overbudget (IRE) Ray Dawson · Michael Appleby
    10/1
  2. Second Torbados (GB)
    3/1
  3. 7/1
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16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 2 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Deadline silks
Deadline Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-9
66545
60
—
60OR
3
9-9
—
—
SP
—
?
Whazzimo silks
Whazzimo Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-0
5999
51
—
51OR
3
9-0
—
—
SP
—
1
La Belle Forest silks
La Belle Forest
Age 3 · 9-9
176647
60
56
69
3
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
8/1 5/1 15/2
Lightly raced on the back of a win six starts back, La Belle Forest has experience over today's trip and going and carries a manageable 135 lb from stall seven, with our rating of 69 suggesting she merits serious respect; the risk is that her last five outings have not reproduced that winning effort.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Koffee And Kale silks
Koffee And Kale
Age 3 · 9-9
574642
60
69
73
3
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
11/4 32/17 5/2
Koffee And Kale has shown his best form in recent starts, finishing second last time out just seven days ago, and he has run over today's distance and going before, giving connections plenty of encouragement; winless in his last six, he remains the one to beat on our ratings here.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Stoneacre Joe silks
Stoneacre Joe
Age 3 · 9-6
845433
57
49
57
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 7/1 12/1
Stoneacre Joe has shown consistency without a win, posting two consecutive thirds in recent starts, though a run of fourths and fifths deeper in his form suggests he finds one or two too good; he has run over today's trip before and returns on a quick turnaround of 14 days carrying 132 lb from stall nine.
AI verdict

SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Torbados silks
Torbados
Age 3 · 9-6
054624
57
60
66
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
9/2 5/1 9/2
Torbados shaped with plenty of promise when second two starts back, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions to call upon, but his recent pattern in the last six starts without a win is the chief concern.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Overbudget silks
Overbudget
Age 3 · 9-6
837698
57
55
63
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 10/1 7/1
Overbudget has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 63 puts her ahead of her official mark, suggesting she retains ability — but her recent sequence of disappointing efforts makes a turnaround the main risk.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Mister Moet silks
Mister Moet
Age 3 · 9-3
244579
54
38
60
3
9-3
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 16/1 14/1
Winless in his last six starts, with a best recent effort of second, Mister Moet has the experience of today's trip and going in his favour but faces a stiff task off 129 lb from stall one, and his form has been edging in the right direction of late.
AI verdict

SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

8
Imagine That silks
Imagine That
Age 3 · 9-3
-05545
54
49
57
3
9-3
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 9/1 17/2
Winless in her last five starts and not seen out for 54 days, Imagine That heads into this with fitness questions to answer, though she has run over today's trip before and a step forward from her recent string of fourths and fifths cannot be ruled out from stall two.
AI verdict

SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
My Mate Mackley silks
My Mate Mackley
Age 3 · 9-2
421324
53
63
59
3
9-2
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 4/1 5/1
Finished fourth last time out, though a winner four starts back and placed third and second in between shows a consistent profile; he has experience of today's trip and going, but his official rating of 53 and a fourth in his most recent outing give pause.
AI verdict

SR 63 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Long Shot silks
Long Shot
Age 3 · 8-9
240475
46
50
55
3
8-9
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 8/1 5/1
Winless in his last six starts, Long Shot's official mark of 46 and a ranking of ninth of twelve on our figures make him hard to fancy, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a quick thirteen-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Audere silks
Audere
Age 3 · 8-9
686-46
43
28
48
3
8-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
28/1 25/1 18/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 11 of 12 on our figures, Audere is hard to fancy on recent form, though she has run over today's distance and going before and 26 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh.
AI verdict

SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

13
Independent Angel silks
Independent Angel
Age 3 · 8-9
-00470
42
23
42
3
8-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 50/1 40/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Independent Angel faces a stiff task here; a fourth three starts back offers a rare glimmer, but her overall profile makes her hard to fancy at the weights.
AI verdict

SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

14
Music And Song silks
Music And Song
Age 3 · 8-9
045896
39
21
49
3
8-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 25/1 33/1
Winless in her last six starts, Music And Song heads here ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, and that poor recent string makes her very hard to fancy; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 44 days between runs at least suggests she arrives fresh.
AI verdict

SR 21 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Deadline — — — — — — —
0 Whazzimo — — — — — — —
1 La Belle Forest 8/1 open 6.00 15/2 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 17/2 open 6.00 17/2 open 6.50 17/2 William Hill
2 Koffee And Kale 11/4 open 3.50 5/2 open 2.88 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 2.88 3/1 Coral
4 Stoneacre Joe 12/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 9.00 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 8.50 12/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 Coral
5 Torbados 9/2 open 7.50 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 Bet365
6 Overbudget 9/1 open 15.00 15/2 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Mister Moet 22/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 Bet365
8 Imagine That 10/1 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 10/1 Bet365
9 My Mate Mackley 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 Coral
11 Long Shot 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 10.00 5/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 11/2 open 9.50 6/1 Bet365
12 Audere 28/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 34.00 25/1 28/1 Bet365
13 Independent Angel 66/1 50/1 open 67.00 40/1 open 67.00 40/1 open 67.00 50/1 open 67.00 50/1 66/1 Bet365
14 Music And Song 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Koffee And Kale

Speculative

Koffee And Kale owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Michael Bell Hector Crouch
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

My Mate Mackley

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Adam Kirby
✓ Value Signal

Independent Angel

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Lisa Williamson
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +14.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
32 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Koffee And Kale
49.7 11/4
2 9. My Mate Mackley
48.1 5/1
3 5. Torbados
45.9 9/2
4 11. Long Shot
45.6 6/1
5 1. La Belle Forest
43.8 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Koffee And Kale
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 3 · 9-9
11/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-6
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾 —

SR 60 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 9-2
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 3 · 8-9
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 50 🐾 —

SR 50 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 3 · 9-9
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾 —

SR 56 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-6
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-3
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 49 🐾 —

SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-6
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 49 🐾 —

SR 49 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Koffee And Kale
Confidence: Speculative

Koffee And Kale (SR:69, 9/4) is the clear class leader in this field by a meaningful margin — 6 SR points ahead of the next-best My Mate Mackley (SR:63) and 13+ points clear of most rivals. Crucially, a MarkMv:-15 means the horse is running off a mark 15lb lower than at last win, a massive handicap concession in its favour. GoingFit:+ confirms it handles today's Good going, and the visor headgear suggests connections are targeting a positive response. Michael Bell (13%) with Hector Crouch (18%) is a competent pairing, and at 9/4 the market has it right as favourite here. Each-way alternative: My Mate Mackley. Main danger: Overbudget — Overbudget (SR:55, 9/1) has steamed in 27% in the market — the sharpest move in the field — suggesting stable confidence, and while the SR is modest the market money is too significant to ignore entirely.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Recent form reads 574642 — no win in last 6 starts and finished 2nd just once; a horse running 15lb below last winning mark suggests that win may be stale or form has regressed significantly since.
  • Visor (v) is a first-time or reapplied gear change, which can be a red flag of a horse that has been disappointing connections — not always the positive spin the primary analyst implies.
  • My Mate Mackley (SR:63, 5/1) has shown more consistent recent form (421324) and while 6 SR points below, is only 7lb worse off at the weights, narrowing the gap considerably in practice.
  • No course form noted for Koffee And Kale at Southwell AW — a track with highly specific characteristics (Fibresand) that can catch out horses without proven course affinity.
Shortlist Koffee And Kale, My Mate Mackley, Overbudget, Torbados
Each-way: My Mate Mackley Danger: Overbudget

🗺 The Course Class 6

6f16y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 6 Race grade