Glenfinnan showed his quality when winning two starts back, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions, while his rating of 84 gives him claims off a workable mark; the main concern is that eighth last time out suggests he needs to find improvement again.
Form last 6942018
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR84RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Obelix shaped with promise when winning six starts back, and he brings experience of today's trip and going to this contest; our rating of 90 puts him narrowly top, though the trainer's current blank spell is the one note of caution.
Form last 6155044
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
82SR90RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mudamer shaped with plenty of promise when third two starts back, and his going and distance experience here counts in his favour, with our rating of 86 marking him out as a live danger from stall one; the risk is that he has been winless in recent starts and must bounce back from a seventh last time.
Form last 6330637
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR87RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tattie Bogle won last time out and has experience of today's trip and conditions, but that eighth two starts back and a patchy recent record suggest consistency is the query; 137 lb is a stern burden to carry while trying to back up that victory.
Form last 6272281
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
82SR81RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked second of nine on our rating and carrying 137 lb from stall two, Star Material showed promise with a third three starts back and returns after 33 days with going experience in his favour, though his refusal two starts back and winless recent run raise a clear jumping concern.
Form last 6-983R0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR89RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in her last five starts, with two unplaced efforts sandwiched between placed finishes, Style of Life makes little appeal on these figures, though she has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a reasonable 24-day break.
Form last 625-002
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR76RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and representing a trainer in the depths of a miserable run of form, Nursia is hard to fancy off 60 days off track, his two most recent starts both disappointing; the win three starts back and going experience offer slim comfort.
Form last 65-158
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR71RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and absent for 277 days, Light Speed faces a stiff return to action, though a third four starts back hints at ability and he has run over today's distance and going before; the 132 lb burden from stall seven is the additional ask.
Form last 653894-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR80RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked eighth of nine on our figures, Folkene is hard to fancy despite the fitness plus of a run just eight days ago; she has run over today's trip and going before, but her record of repeated fourth-place finishes offers little encouragement.
Form last 6640474
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR73RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Glenfinnan owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Michael DodsConnor Beasley
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tattie Bogle
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · Charlie Johnston✓ Value Signal
Star Material
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
22/1 · Adrian Keatley◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Glenfinnan (SR:91, 5/2) is the class standout in this field, carrying 10-2 despite a MarkMv:+4 but dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2), which is a significant competitive advantage. The horse has strong course form (W2P3 at Beverley), a DistFit:~ at this trip, and GoingFit:~ on today's good ground — all acceptable. The standout signal here is the market: a 43% Mkt:in move from the opening price is substantial and indicates informed money is behind this runner for a reason. At 5/2, Glenfinnan's implied market probability (~29%) slightly undervalues what the SR gap and class drop suggest, making this a genuine play.
Each-way alternative: Tattie Bogle.
Main danger: Tattie Bogle — Tattie Bogle (SR:82, 9/2) has the strongest distance and going credentials in the field (DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+), recent winning form (rightmost figure '1'), proven course form (W1P2 at Beverley), and Callum Shepherd's 15% strike rate — the drift of 38% is puzzling but the class rise (↑1) is the most plausible explanation, and if the step up in class is within range, this horse has the right profile to chase Glenfinnan home or go past it.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form:942018 shows Glenfinnan has finished 9th, 4th, 2nd, 0(fell/void?), 1st, 8th — the most recent run is an 8, suggesting a sharp deterioration in form heading into today.
MarkMv:+4 means the official handicapper has raised the rating 4lbs since last run; combined with top weight 10-2, Glenfinnan faces a stiffer ask than the class drop alone implies.
Tattie Bogle (SR:82, same rating as Obelix) arrives on Form:272281 — last-time winner, +4 mark rise yet still 9/2 and drifting, suggesting the market may prefer Glenfinnan but Tattie Bogle's momentum…
Days:17 since last run is workable, but that last run produced an '8' finish — market support (Mkt:in43%) may be based on the win two runs ago rather than current form, which looks concerning.