Southwell (AW) 17:30 RESULTED
Class 4 22 Sep 2026

Tuesday 22 September attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div II)

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div II) · 1m13y

Official Result

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Hot And Cold (GB) Luke Morris · Sir Mark Prescott Bt
    5/2F
  2. 7/2
  3. 7/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

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Warwick

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14:12–17:07 · 6 races

Southwell (AW)

16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Duke's Command silks
Duke's Command
Age 5 · 10-2
876508
87
84
94
5
10-2
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1 6/1 13/2
Duke's Command heads the ratings and arrives in good order on 16 days' rest, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour. Winless in his last six starts, he nevertheless rates the one to beat off 142 lb from stall nine, and a fifth three starts back hints at enough ability to go close.
AI verdict

SR 84 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Shimmy Jimmy silks
Shimmy Jimmy
Age 4 · 9-13
622/4-
84
57
86
4
9-13
★☆☆☆☆
—
SP 14/1 28/1
Winless in his last four starts and absent for 450 days, Shimmy Jimmy faces a stiff fitness test despite the encouragement of two seconds in recent starts and experience over today's distance and going; the 139 lb burden from stall eight adds further pressure.
AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

3
Hot And Cold silks
Hot And Cold
Age 3 · 9-10
1-1251
85
95
88
3
9-10
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 11/4 3/1
Hot And Cold arrives here in fine nick, winning last time out and boasting three wins in her last five starts, with experience over today's trip and conditions adding solid grounding; the 136 lb burden from stall seven is the chief weight to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Vincent Rocks silks
Vincent Rocks
Age 4 · 9-10
030250
81
67
88
4
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 14/1 11/1
Twice placed in recent starts, including a second three outings back, Vincent Rocks has run over today's trip and going before and arrives here on a competitive 17-day turnaround carrying 136 lb; the concern is that he remains winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Winston's Warrior silks
Winston's Warrior
Age 4 · 9-9
-18562
80
85
85
4
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 9/2 11/4
Second last time out gives Winston's Warrior a recent reminder of his best form, though a sixth two starts back shows inconsistency to factor in; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 135 lb from stall four makes this a fair enough test at an official mark of 80.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
On The River silks
On The River
Age 7 · 9-8
527532
79
65
87
7
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 8/1 14/1
Consistent and in good nick 23 days on from his latest runner-up finish, On The River has experience over today's distance and going and carries a manageable 134 lb from stall 3; the concern is that he remains winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Date Line silks
Date Line
Age 3 · 9-8
21-26
83
61
78
3
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
40/1 20/1 40/1
Ran a creditable second two starts back and scored three starts back, but her sixth last time out raises questions, and our rating of 78 leaves her with ground to make up on the top-rated; has run over today's trip and returns on a workable 17-day break.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Moving Shadow silks
Moving Shadow
Age 3 · 9-7
17-3
82
83
84
3
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 9/2 5/1
Won three starts back but disappointed with a seventh two starts back before bouncing back into third last time; he has run over today's trip and carries 133 lb from stall 6, though 55 days off the track leaves fitness an open question.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Home Hero silks
Home Hero
Age 3 · 9-4
151747
79
59
76
3
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
28/1 17/2 22/1
Home Hero ran just yesterday and rates below his official mark on our figures, ranked tenth of eleven in the field; a fourth two starts back offers a sliver of hope, but a pair of sevenths either side of it make him hard to fancy at the weights.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Storm Point silks
Storm Point
Age 3 · 9-2
-16175
77
84
77
3
9-2
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 11/2 5/1
Ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, Storm Point faces a stiff ask, and back-to-back finishes of seventh and fifth in his last two starts do little to inspire confidence; he has run over today's trip and going before, and a win three starts back at least confirms he can find the line.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Assiri Heights silks
Assiri Heights
Age 3 · 9-0
9-62
75
70
63
3
9-0
★★★☆☆
—
8/1 4/1 8/1
Winless in his last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Assiri Heights faces a stiff task from stall ten carrying 126 lb, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a sharp 13-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Duke's Command 7/1 open 10.00 7/1 open 12.00 8/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 11.00 7/1 open 11.00 13/2 open 7.00 8/1 Coral
2 Shimmy Jimmy 28/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 19.00 33/1 Paddy Power
3 Hot And Cold 10/3 open 4.50 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 open 4.33 10/3 Bet365
4 Vincent Rocks 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 19.00 14/1 Bet365
5 Winston's Warrior 10/3 open 8.00 11/4 open 6.00 3/1 open 7.00 3/1 open 7.00 3/1 open 7.00 11/4 open 5.50 10/3 Bet365
6 On The River 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 9.00 14/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 Bet365
7 Date Line 40/1 open 21.00 50/1 open 23.00 50/1 open 21.00 50/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 21.00 50/1 open 23.00 50/1 Paddy Power
8 Moving Shadow 11/2 open 5.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 5/1 5/1 open 8.00 11/2 Bet365
9 Home Hero 28/1 open 9.50 33/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 33/1 open 11.00 33/1 open 13.00 33/1 Paddy Power
10 Storm Point 6/1 open 12.00 13/2 open 9.00 5/1 open 10.00 5/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 Paddy Power
11 Assiri Heights 8/1 open 5.00 17/2 open 7.00 17/2 open 5.50 9/1 open 5.50 17/2 open 5.50 9/1 open 6.00 9/1 Ladbrokes

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Moving Shadow

Speculative

Moving Shadow owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/2 K. R. Burke Sam James
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Hot And Cold

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

10/3 · Sir Mark Prescott Bt
✓ Value Signal

Home Hero

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · Hugo Palmer
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
75 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.9 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.1 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Moving Shadow
55.0 11/2
2 3. Hot And Cold
54.6 10/3
3 5. Winston's Warrior
54.5 10/3
4 10. Storm Point
52.9 6/1
5 1. Duke's Command
51.2 7/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Hot And Cold
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 3 · 9-10
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾 —

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 4 · 9-9
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 3 · 9-7
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 3 · 9-2
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾 —

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 5 · 10-2
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 84 🐾 —

SR 84 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 3 · 9-0
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 70 🐾 —

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-10
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 9-8
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾 —

SR 65 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Hot And Cold
Confidence: Speculative

Hot And Cold (SR 95, 7/2) is the clear class-leader in this field — the highest SR by 10 points — and carries a workable 9-10. Form string 1-1251 shows two wins across different seasons with a recent fifth and a last-time-out win that confirms current peak form. Crucially, DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven ability at today's exact trip and going conditions, and Course:W1P1 at Southwell adds a specialist-track edge. The 11% market drift is a concern worth noting — but Sir Mark Prescott's 19% yard strike rate on 699 runners and Luke Morris's consistent booking suggest this is connections' intended target, and the SR advantage over the field is simply too large to dismiss. Each-way alternative: Winston's Warrior. Main danger: Winston's Warrior — Winston's Warrior (SR 85, 4/1) has been heavily backed — steaming in 27% from opening — carries a light 9-9, holds Course:W1P1 at Southwell, and DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at the mile trip, making it the most likely horse to exploit any complacency from the favourite.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 11% market drift out is notable for a Prescott runner who is supposedly connections' intended target — money has actively moved against this horse today.
  • Form string 1-1251 includes a fifth last time but two runs ago; the LTO win may have been a weaker contest, and the SR of 95 still faces Winston's Warrior (SR:85) and Storm Point (SR:84) who are both…
  • Winston's Warrior is strongly fancied at 4/1 and shortening 27%, also holds Course:W1P1 at Southwell and carries 1lb less — the market clearly prefers this rival today.
  • At 3yo carrying 9-10 against older rivals in an AW contest, Hot And Cold has no weight-for-age allowance advantage and the 19-day absence combined with the drift suggests connections may not be fully…
Shortlist Hot And Cold, Winston's Warrior, Duke's Command, Storm Point
Each-way: Winston's Warrior Danger: Winston's Warrior

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m13y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade