Southwell (AW) 16:55 RESULTED
Class 4 22 Sep 2026

Tuesday 22 September attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I)

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 1m13y

Official Result

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Shipbourne (GB) Rossa Ryan · Ralph Beckett
    13/2
  2. 3/1F
  3. 17/2
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Beverley

13:30–17:35 · 8 races

Listowel

13:47–17:16 · 7 races

Warwick

13:55–16:48 · 6 races

Fontwell

14:12–17:07 · 6 races

Southwell (AW)

16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Londoner silks
Londoner
Age 6 · 10-2
954242
87
90
95
6
10-2
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 7/2 4/1
Consistent front-runner type, Londoner has finished second twice in his last six starts and arrives here fresh enough at just 15 days between runs, with experience of both today's trip and going working in his favour; yet to land a race in recent starts, but his profile at 142 lb from stall eight merits respect.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Carron silks
Carron
Age 4 · 10-1
610820
86
66
95
4
10-1
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 18/1 28/1
Ran a fine second two starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going conditions, with our rating of 95 suggesting he holds solid claims from stall 2; the concern is a return to form after finishing unplaced last time out.
AI verdict

SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

3
Shipbourne silks
Shipbourne
Age 3 · 9-12
13-109
87
84
87
3
9-12
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 9/2 6/1
Shipbourne won three starts back and has run over today's trip, but back-to-back disappointing efforts since then give pause, and ranked seventh of eleven here he faces a stiff task off 138 lb from stall nine.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Clouds Hill silks
Clouds Hill
Age 4 · 9-11
139087
82
53
89
4
9-11
★☆☆☆☆
—
25/1 11/1 25/1
Clouds Hill showed a win and a third in recent starts but has since struggled, finishing unplaced or deep in the field in his last four, and 40 days off adds a fitness query; he has run over today's trip and going before and draws stall one carrying 137 lb.
AI verdict

SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

5
Firefall silks
Firefall
Age 3 · 9-11
1-9827
86
77
84
3
9-11
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 8/1 14/1
Firefall has shown only flashes of ability, with a win in his last five starts offset by a pair of defeats deep in the field, and his speed rating of 70 leaves him a significant underdog ranked tenth of eleven; the 22-day turnaround is acceptable and he has run over today's trip, but it is hard to fancy on these figures.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Politely silks
Politely
Age 3 · 9-9
5-1159
84
93
85
3
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 9/2 5/1
Politely showed her quality when winning back-to-back two and three starts back, but a ninth last time out clouds her credentials, and 95 days off adds a fitness query; she has run over today's trip and going, and 135 lb is no gimme.
AI verdict

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Darn Hot Gallop silks
Darn Hot Gallop
Age 3 · 9-8
-10065
83
79
91
3
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 FCST 5/1
Darn Hot Gallop showed she can win in recent starts, and she has run over today's trip and going before, with a rating of 91 lending further confidence; the worry is that her last four outings have yielded only a fifth and a sixth plus two unplaced efforts, suggesting she needs to recapture that earlier form.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Talis Evolvere silks
Talis Evolvere
Age 6 · 9-7
276650
78
83
96
6
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 11/2 6/1
Talis Evolvere is the top-ranked runner in the field and his speed rating underlines genuine ability, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour at a fresh 22 days between runs; the concern is a winless recent spell and a trainer firing at just 3% lately.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
King of Fury silks
King of Fury
Age 6 · 9-7
471190
78
62
85
6
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
50/1 28/1 33/1
King of Fury has gone unplaced in each of his last two starts and ranks ninth of eleven on our figures, making him hard to fancy despite back-to-back wins earlier in the sequence and experience over today's distance and going.
AI verdict

SR 62 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Kalokalo silks
Kalokalo
Age 3 · 9-3
312130
78
91
83
3
9-3
★★★★☆
—
7/2 9/2 7/2
Ranked last on our figures and unplaced last time out, Kalokalo is hard to fancy, though he does at least bring experience of today's trip and going, and a win three starts back offers some encouragement.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.

11
Illy's Roo silks
Illy's Roo
Age 3 · 9-0
715499
75
75
87
3
9-0
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 12/1 8/1
Illy's Roo showed a flash of ability with a win five starts back, but back-to-back ninths in recent outings are hard to ignore; he has run over today's trip and going, and returns on a quick 11-day turnaround carrying 126 lb from stall 10.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Londoner 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 9/2 Bet365
2 Carron 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 19.00 33/1 Bet365
3 Shipbourne 6/1 open 5.50 7/1 open 5.50 7/1 open 5.50 7/1 open 5.50 6/1 open 5.50 13/2 open 7.00 7/1 Paddy Power
4 Clouds Hill 25/1 open 12.00 33/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 13.00 28/1 open 13.00 28/1 open 13.00 28/1 open 17.00 33/1 Paddy Power
5 Firefall 14/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 Paddy Power
6 Politely 5/1 open 10.00 11/2 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 11/2 open 11.00 5/1 open 5.50 6/1 Coral
7 Darn Hot Gallop 6/1 open 8.00 6/1 open 6.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 6/1 6/1 6/1 Bet365
8 Talis Evolvere 6/1 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 Paddy Power
9 King of Fury 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 34.00 50/1 Bet365
10 Kalokalo 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.50 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.00 7/2 open 5.50 4/1 William Hill
11 Illy's Roo 10/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 13.00 8/1 open 13.00 8/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Kalokalo

Speculative

Kalokalo owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Charles Hills Jason Watson
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Darn Hot Gallop

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · James Tate
✓ Value Signal

Carron

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Ruth Carr
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 10. Kalokalo
55.0 7/2
2 7. Darn Hot Gallop
54.2 6/1
3 1. Londoner
54.0 9/2
4 8. Talis Evolvere
53.4 6/1
5 6. Politely
52.7 5/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Politely
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

10
Age 3 · 9-3
7/2
★★★★☆ SR 91 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.

1
Age 6 · 10-2
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾 —

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-9
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 93 🐾 —

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 3 · 9-12
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾 —

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-8
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 6 · 9-7
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 3 · 9-0
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-11
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾 —

SR 77 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Politely
Confidence: Speculative

Politely (SR:93, 11/2) leads the field on SR and carries a favourable 9-9, giving her a meaningful weight advantage over top-weight Londoner (10-2) and Carron (10-1). Crucially, she is proven at today's trip (DistFit:+) and on Good going (GoingFit:+), and the market has steamed in 34% — the strongest inbound move in the field — signalling stable confidence after a 95-day break. Owen Burrows runs at a 21% strike rate and Callum Rodriguez at 20%, both the strongest connections figures among the contenders. The MarkMv:+4 is a mild negative but the weight-adjusted SR advantage and multi-signal alignment override it. Each-way alternative: Kalokalo. Main danger: Kalokalo — Kalokalo (SR:91, 4/1) has shortened 17% in the market, holds course form (W1P2), is proven at the trip (DistFit:+) and on Good going (GoingFit:+), and drops a class (↓1) — the only rival matching Politely's SR while carrying 6lb less than Londoner.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 95-day absence is the longest in the field for a 3yo filly; MarkMv:+4 suggests the handicapper has raised her mark, meaning she returns both fresh and from a higher base rating than her last run.
  • Kalokalo (SR:91, 4/1) carries 6lb less at 9-3, is proven at this course (W1P2), has run more recently (54 days vs 95), and is market-backed (in17%) — a strong weight-and-course rival the primary case…
  • Politely's last three form figures are 1-1-5-9, showing a sharp decline; the two most recent runs are a win followed by two defeats, raising doubt that the market steam reflects current ability rathe…
  • Talis Evolvere (11/2, same price) holds a course W1P1 record, has raced 22 days ago, and carries only 9-7 — a fresher, course-proven rival at identical odds undermines Politely's value case.
Shortlist Politely, Kalokalo, Londoner, Talis Evolvere
Each-way: Kalokalo Danger: Kalokalo

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m13y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade