Southwell (AW) 19:30 RESULTED
Class 5 10 Oct 2026

Last Saturday Pilsner To The Post Handicap Stakes

Pilsner To The Post Handicap Stakes · 4f214y

Official Result

Pilsner To The Post Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Opal Storm (GB) Faye McManoman · Brian Rothwell
    12/1
  2. 9/2
  3. Third Goyard (IRE)
    85/40F
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Southwell (AW)

16:10–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 8 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Thornaby Pearl silks
Thornaby Pearl Non-Runner
Age 8 · 9-10
113126
73
—
73OR
8
9-10
—
—
SP
—
1
Goyard silks
Goyard
Age 4 · 9-12
845762
75
74
75
4
9-12
★★☆☆☆
—
10/3 10/3 11/4
Goyard comes in on the back of a second last time out, 18 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going, but he's yet to win in his last six starts and a sixth, seventh and fifth before that show how mixed it's been. Drawn three and carrying 138 lb off 75, he looks a mid-pack type.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Lil Brother silks
Lil Brother
Age 3 · 9-11
95-744
74
54
80
3
9-11
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 20/1 16/1
Lil Brother heads our ratings at 80 after back-to-back fourth-placed efforts, comes here fresh after 25 days, and has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is that he is yet to win in his last five starts, with a ninth five runs back his worst recent effort.
AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

4
Rogue Bullet silks
Rogue Bullet
Age 4 · 9-9
143286
72
71
79
4
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 13/2 5/1
Rogue Bullet has run over today's trip and going, and a second three starts back plus a third four runs ago show he can sprint into the money, while our rating of 79 ranks him second of eight and sits above his official 72. The risk is a sixth last time out and an eighth before that, so he needs to arrest that slide from stall two.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Tanjen silks
Tanjen
Age 4 · 9-9
513421
72
76
71
4
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 5/2 10/3
Tanjen looks hard to fancy given our figures rank her seventh of eight, though she won last time out and fits on fitness after 19 days, having run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 135 lb from draw 7 with an official rating of 72 leaves her little margin.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
J Street silks
J Street
Age 4 · 9-8
141446
71
75
74
4
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 FCST 5/1
J Street has two wins in her last six starts, but she was sixth last time out after a fourth two starts back, and she returns after 32 days. She has run over today's trip and going before, though 134 lb from stall six and a sixth-ranked rating of 74 suggest a midfield finish.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Star Noir silks
Star Noir
Age 3 · 9-8
34-741
71
76
79
3
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/2 5/1
Star Noir won last time out, a fourth two starts back before that, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before; a 54-day break is the one query, but that latest success makes him our pick on overall profile, drawn five and carrying 134 lb.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Brazilian Belle silks
Brazilian Belle
Age 4 · 9-7
311605
70
72
76
4
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 12/1 17/2
Brazilian Belle won two of her last six, back-to-back four and five starts back, and has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 76 ranks her fourth of eight. The main risk is a yard that is 0/27 over the last 14 days, with a fifth, a sixth and an unplaced run since those wins.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Opal Storm silks
Opal Storm
Age 6 · 8-10
946157
59
64
64
6
8-10
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 15/2 11/1
Opal Storm was seventh last time out and a fifth two starts back, so the form is patchy, though she did win three starts back and has run over today's trip and going before. Quick back-up after seven days, and carrying 122 lb from stall nine, she is hard to fancy with our figures ranking her last of eight.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Thornaby Pearl — — — — — — —
1 Goyard 10/3 3/1 open 4.33 10/3 open 4.50 10/3 open 4.50 10/3 open 4.50 11/4 open 4.50 10/3 Bet365
2 Lil Brother 20/1 18/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 20/1 Bet365
4 Rogue Bullet 6/1 open 13.00 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 5/1 open 7.50 6/1 Bet365
5 Tanjen 10/3 open 3.50 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 Paddy Power
6 J Street 6/1 open 8.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 5/1 6/1 Bet365
7 Star Noir 5/1 open 3.50 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 open 4.50 5/1 open 4.33 11/2 Paddy Power
8 Brazilian Belle 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
9 Opal Storm 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 8.50 11/1 open 9.00 11/1 open 9.00 11/1 open 9.50 11/1 open 9.00 11/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Goyard

Speculative

Goyard owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

10/3 David O'Meara Mark Winn
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Star Noir

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Michael & David Easterby
✓ Value Signal

Lil Brother

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

20/1 · Michael Keady
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
85 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Goyard
54.6 10/3
2 7. Star Noir
52.6 5/1
3 5. Tanjen
52.2 10/3
4 4. Rogue Bullet
50.8 6/1
5 6. J Street
49.6 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
J Street
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 9-12
10/3
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 4 · 9-9
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-8
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-9
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 4 · 9-8
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 4 · 9-7
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾 —

SR 72 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 6 · 8-10
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾 —

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 3 · 9-11
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
J Street
Confidence: Speculative

J Street (SR:75, 5/1, Wgt:9-8) combines the strongest multi-signal case in this field. Course:W1P2 at Southwell is a concrete edge on a track where specialists consistently hold an advantage, and the market has shortened 13% — money is coming for a reason. Within the Easterby yard, J Street is clearly the #1 runner: the more experienced jockey booking (Callum Hutchinson 12% strike rate vs Shay Farmer 8%), tighter market move inward vs Star Noir's dramatic 37% drift, and a superior recent course form record. Running off a mark only 2lb above last win (MarkMv:+2), the weight of 9-8 is competitive, and ClassMv:= means no step up in grade to navigate. Each-way alternative: Brazilian Belle. Main danger: Brazilian Belle — Brazilian Belle (SR:72, 9/1) has steamed in 31% in the market, shares J Street's Course:W1P2 advantage at Southwell, and runs off a mark just 1lb above last win — the market move suggests connections are confident despite the '0' in recent form.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 32-day absence is the longest of any fancied runner — J Street has gone over a month without racing while market rivals Goyard, Rogue Bullet, Tanjen and Brazilian Belle are all fresher (18-19 days).
  • Brazilian Belle shares the identical Course:W1P2 Southwell record, carries 1lb less (9-7), is trained by a 12% yard, has a jockey on 13% and has shortened 31% in the market — a stronger money move th…
  • Highest-rated rival Tanjen (SR:76) also has Southwell course form (W1P1) and is only 1lb heavier; despite drifting 33%, Tim Easterby's 11% yard with a 11% jockey represents a live yard threat from th…
  • Running off a mark 2lb above last win (MarkMv:+2) while carrying a top weight of 9-8 in a competitive AW sprint — the margin for error on handicap is tight if today's rivals are on a downward traject…
Shortlist J Street, Brazilian Belle, Tanjen, Goyard
Each-way: Brazilian Belle Danger: Brazilian Belle

🗺 The Course Class 5

4f214y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade