Southwell (AW) 16:45 RESULTED
Class 5 10 Oct 2026

Last Saturday Erdinger Weissbier Stein Selling Handicap Stakes

Erdinger Weissbier Stein Selling Handicap Stakes · 1m13y

Official Result

Erdinger Weissbier Stein Selling Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Izzari (GER) Cara Tuke · Iain Jardine
    5/1
  2. 20/1
  3. 25/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Newmarket

13:15–16:50 · 7 races

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Chepstow

13:35–17:10 · 7 races

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Hexham

13:43–17:30 · 7 races

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13:58–17:35 · 7 races

Southwell (AW)

16:10–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
I Am Me silks
I Am Me Non-Runner
Age 4 · 9-7
331994
68
—
68OR
4
9-7
—
—
SP
—
1
Chilly Breeze silks
Chilly Breeze
Age 4 · 9-8
762201
69
70
71
4
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
12/1 6/1 9/1
Chilly Breeze won last time out just 11 days ago and has run over today's trip and going, but he was unplaced two starts back and his 134 lb from stall seven asks plenty; our rating of 71 ranks him eighth of thirteen.
AI verdict

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Bowood silks
Bowood
Age 6 · 9-8
573070
69
65
74
6
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 11/1 14/1
Bowood has been winless in his last six, with a third four starts back his best finish and an unplaced effort last time out, but he has run over today's trip and going and returns after 25 days. Our rating of 74 sits above his official 69, though 134 lb from stall nine is no free ride.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Narmar silks
Narmar
Age 6 · 9-7
2-0006
68
47
77
6
9-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 25/1 28/1
Narmar has run over today's trip and going and was second five starts back, while our rating of 77 ranks him second of 13, so he's a leading danger off 133 lb from stall six. The risk is a poor recent run, with a sixth last time out and a 66-day absence, and he's winless in his last five.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

4
City of God silks
City of God
Age 4 · 9-7
158588
68
48
77
4
9-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 FCST 25/1
City of God rates a leading danger, with our rating of 77 ranking him third of 13 and 9 lb clear of his official mark of 68, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is form, with three eighths and two fifths in his last five outings after a win six starts back.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

6
Calm The Jets silks
Calm The Jets
Age 4 · 9-6
-98080
67
78
82
4
9-6
★★★☆☆
—
5/4 9/2 Evs
Our top-rated runner, Calm The Jets has run over today's trip and going before, and his 82 rating towers over a modest official mark of 67 for a gelding carrying 132 lb from draw 14. Winless in his last five and off 72 days, he must bounce back.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
No Knee Never silks
No Knee Never
Age 5 · 9-6
306661
67
66
71
5
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 9/2 14/1
Won last time out and has only 12 days since that success, but that came after three straight sixths, so consistency is a question; he has run over today's distance and going, carries 132 lb from stall 8, and our rating of 71 ranks him seventh of 13.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Rusheen Boy silks
Rusheen Boy
Age 5 · 9-6
315514
67
61
66
5
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 12/1 11/1
Rusheen Boy was a fourth last time out, 23 days ago, and a winner two starts back, so the form has some substance, but a fifth three starts back and another fifth four starts back show his consistency is patchy. He has run over this trip and on this going, yet our figures rank him 11th of 13, and 132 lb from stall 12 makes him hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Prince Rasam silks
Prince Rasam
Age 5 · 9-6
266-23
67
64
75
5
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 11/2 9/1
Prince Rasam arrives fresh after 37 days, third last time out and a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Yet to win in his last five starts, he carries 132 lb from stall 2, and our rating of 74 ranks him fifth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Oro Palacio silks
Oro Palacio
Age 3 · 9-6
9-55
70
59
64
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 10/1 11/1
Winless in his last three, finishing fifth twice and a ninth three starts back, Oro Palacio is hard to fancy off 132 lb from stall 13, and our rating of 64 ranks him last of 13. He has run over today's trip and returns after 31 days.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Auburn Avenue silks
Auburn Avenue
Age 5 · 9-6
-87150
67
60
71
5
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
25/1 12/1 16/1
Auburn Avenue won three starts back but has been unplaced last time out and a fifth two starts back since, returning after 40 days; she has run over today's trip and going, though 132 lb from stall five is a sizeable burden, and our rating of 71 ranks her ninth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Sandy Craic silks
Sandy Craic
Age 3 · 9-5
122353
69
74
76
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
16/1 13/2 16/1
Sandy Craic arrives consistent, with a third last time out, a third three starts back and a second four starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 76 sits well above her official 69, but the main risk is that she has only one win in her last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Izzari silks
Izzari
Age 5 · 9-5
692814
66
75
70
5
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 4/1 5/1
Hard to fancy at tenth of 13 on our figures, with a mixed last six that includes a ninth and an eighth, though he was a fourth last time out, a winner two starts back, and is back quickly after eight days. He has run over today's trip and going before, and carries 131 lb from stall four.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

14
R P McMurphy silks
R P McMurphy
Age 4 · 9-4
803412
65
81
66
4
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/1 4/1
R P McMurphy arrives in decent nick, a second last time out and a winner two starts back, fresh after 14 days and with experience of today's trip and going. Even so, he carries 130 lb from stall three and sits twelfth of 13 on our rating, so he is hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 I Am Me — — — — — — —
1 Chilly Breeze 12/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.00 12/1 Bet365
2 Bowood 16/1 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 16/1 Bet365
3 Narmar 50/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 26.00 28/1 28/1 40/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 26.00 50/1 Bet365
4 City of God 33/1 open 26.00 25/1 open 31.00 28/1 28/1 28/1 25/1 open 29.00 33/1 Bet365
6 Calm The Jets 5/4 open 12.00 11/8 open 6.00 1/1 open 6.00 1/1 open 6.00 5/4 open 6.00 1/1 open 5.50 11/8 Paddy Power
7 No Knee Never 16/1 open 5.50 14/1 open 6.50 16/1 open 6.50 16/1 open 6.50 16/1 open 6.50 14/1 open 6.50 16/1 Bet365
8 Rusheen Boy 14/1 12/1 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 14/1 Bet365
9 Prince Rasam 12/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.50 12/1 open 7.00 12/1 Bet365
10 Oro Palacio 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 11.00 12/1 Bet365
11 Auburn Avenue 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 13.00 25/1 Bet365
12 Sandy Craic 16/1 open 8.00 16/1 open 7.50 16/1 open 7.50 16/1 open 7.50 16/1 open 8.00 16/1 open 7.50 16/1 Bet365
13 Izzari 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 11/2 11/2 5/1 open 6.50 11/2 Bet365
14 R P McMurphy 5/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Calm The Jets

Speculative

Calm The Jets owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (43) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/4 C. W. J. Farrell Rory Cleary
74% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

R P McMurphy

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Michael Appleby
✓ Value Signal

Auburn Avenue

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · John & Rhys Flint
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Calm The Jets
54.8 5/4
2 14. R P McMurphy
50.6 5/1
3 13. Izzari
50.5 11/2
4 1. Chilly Breeze
46.0 12/1
5 8. Rusheen Boy
43.6 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
R P McMurphy
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 4 · 9-6
5/4
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

14
Age 4 · 9-4
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 5 · 9-5
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 9-8
12/1
★★★☆☆ SR 70 🐾 —

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 5 · 9-6
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾 —

SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 3 · 9-6
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 5 · 9-6
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 6 · 9-8
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾 —

SR 65 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 5 · 9-6
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 3 · 9-5
16/1
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
R P McMurphy
Confidence: Speculative

R P McMurphy (SR:81, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in this field and carries a relatively light 9-4 despite that SR advantage, giving him a real lbs edge over rivals. His GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ confirm he handles today's exact conditions, and Course:W0P5 shows he consistently fires at Southwell without winning — the 2 last time out (form 803412) suggests he's peaking at the right moment. The market has shortened 31% since opening, which is a powerful steaming signal in a Class 5 seller that the stable — Michael Appleby at 13% strike rate with Edward Greatrex (14%, 936 runners) up — is confident. The MarkMv:+7 is a concern on paper, but the weight (9-4) and going/distance fit more than compensate. Each-way alternative: Calm The Jets. Main danger: Calm The Jets — Calm The Jets (SR:78, 7/2) has steamed in 37% from opening — the joint-strongest market move in the field — carries only 9-6 with DistFit:+ confirmed, and though GoingFit:? is a flag, the money suggests connections have strong confidence in him bouncing back from a modest recent run.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Course:W0P5 — five attempts at Southwell without a win is a persistent course-specific failure that the 'peaking' narrative has failed to materialise on four prior occasions at this track.
  • MarkMv:+7 is the joint-largest upward mark move in the field; he runs off a 7lb higher official rating than last time, which in a Class 5 seller is a significant barrier to winning.
  • HG:p (headgear worn previously) with no headgear listed today — if blinkers/cheekpieces were part of his recent form, their removal at a track where he hasn't won is a genuine concern.
  • Calm The Jets (SR:78, 7/2) steamed in 37% and is 3 ratings points lower with no MarkMv penalty and 2lb less weight — a fresher, unexposed rival at identical odds represents a live market alternative…
Shortlist R P McMurphy, Calm The Jets, Sandy Craic, Izzari
Each-way: Calm The Jets Danger: Calm The Jets

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m13y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade