Chepstow 15:22 RESULTED
Class 4 10 Oct 2026

Last Saturday McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race · 2m3f100y

Official Result

McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Onefournine (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
    2/1F
  2. 11/2
  3. 7/1
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Onefournine silks
Onefournine
Age 6 · 12-0
/2201-
115
113
110
6
12-0
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 5/2 10/3
Onefournine won last time out and was second in two of her previous three, so the form is strong, and she has run on today's going before. The one concern is a 179-day absence, so sharpness is the question, especially carrying 168 lb.
AI verdict

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Miss Cynthia silks
Miss Cynthia
Age 6 · 11-12
P/710-
113
106
119
6
11-12
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 FCST 9/2
Miss Cynthia is the one to beat: she won two starts back and has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 119 tops the field of nine. Unplaced last time and 197 days off are the reservations, though 166 lb is a hefty burden.
AI verdict

SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Love Sonnet silks
Love Sonnet
Age 4 · 11-11
2114-
114
104
113
4
11-11
★★★☆☆
—
12/1 7/1 11/1
Love Sonnet won two starts back and three starts back, then ran a fourth last time out, so she arrives with solid recent form and has run on today's going before. The main risk is a 238-day layoff, and she also carries 165 lb.
AI verdict

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Kosasiempre silks
Kosasiempre
Age 8 · 11-6
71431-
107
116
112
8
11-6
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 4/1 6/1
Kosasiempre won last time out and has two wins in her last five starts, with a third two starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before. The main risk is a 204-day absence, and she carries 160 lb off an official mark of 107.
AI verdict

SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Miss Carbo silks
Miss Carbo
Age 4 · 11-5
57615-
108
93
109
4
11-5
★★☆☆☆
—
22/1 17/2 18/1
Hard to fancy after 191 days off, with a fifth last time out and a sixth and a seventh in the previous runs either side of her one win in the last five. She does have a win two starts back and has run over today's trip and going, but 159 lb is a big burden.
AI verdict

SR 93 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Flash Bardot silks
Flash Bardot
Age 6 · 11-5
3-2
106
101
110
6
11-5
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 7/1 11/2
Flash Bardot arrives in decent order, a second last time out and a third two starts back, though she is winless in her last two starts and carries 159 lb off an official mark of 106. Fresh enough after 19 days, she looks a midfield type, with our rating of 110 putting her fifth of nine.
AI verdict

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Only One Blue silks
Only One Blue
Age 4 · 11-4
23324-
107
107
110
4
11-4
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 4/1 5/1
Only One Blue is consistently in the frame, with a fourth last time out, a second two starts back and a third three starts back, yet she is winless in her last five. A 168-day layoff and 158 lb are the concerns, though our 110 sits above her official 107.
AI verdict

SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Where's Cato silks
Where's Cato
Age 7 · 11-0
10123-
101
82
102
7
11-0
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 14/1 28/1
Where's Cato looks hard to fancy after 211 days off, and she is burdened with 154 lb, though a third last time out, a second two starts back and a winner three starts back show she was in good heart before the break. She has run over today's trip and going, but our rating of 102 ranks her ninth of nine.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Jammy Jay silks
Jammy Jay
Age 6 · 10-11
48-242
98
101
105
6
10-11
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 7/1 9/2
Winless in her last five, Jammy Jay is hard to fancy, though she was second last time out and a second three starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 151 lb after 36 days off, she is rated 105 by us, eighth of nine.
AI verdict

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Onefournine 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 3.50 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.75 7/2 Bet365
2 Miss Cynthia 5/1 open 7.00 9/2 5/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 Bet365
3 Love Sonnet 12/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 13.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 Bet365
4 Kosasiempre 13/2 open 5.00 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 6/1 open 5.50 13/2 Bet365
5 Miss Carbo 22/1 open 9.50 18/1 open 12.00 20/1 open 11.00 20/1 open 11.00 20/1 open 11.00 20/1 open 11.00 22/1 Bet365
6 Flash Bardot 11/2 open 8.00 11/2 open 11.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 Coral
7 Only One Blue 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 Bet365
8 Where's Cato 33/1 open 15.00 30/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 Bet365
9 Jammy Jay 9/2 open 9.50 9/2 open 8.00 9/2 open 8.50 9/2 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 9/2 open 8.50 5/1 William Hill

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Kosasiempre

Live signal

Kosasiempre owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (64) and market confidence (70). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

13/2 Stuart Edmunds Charlie Hammond
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Only One Blue

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Max Comley
✓ Value Signal

Where's Cato

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Mrs C. Williams
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
64 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +24.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
70 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +15.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.9 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.9 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Kosasiempre
61.7 13/2
2 7. Only One Blue
59.6 5/1
3 9. Jammy Jay
59.1 9/2
4 1. Onefournine
58.8 7/2
5 2. Miss Cynthia
57.1 5/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Only One Blue
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 6 · 12-0
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 113 🐾 —

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 6 · 10-11
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 101 🐾 —

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 11-12
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 106 🐾 —

SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 4 · 11-4
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 107 🐾 —

SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 6 · 11-5
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 101 🐾 —

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 8 · 11-6
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 116 🐾 —

SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 4 · 11-11
12/1
★★★☆☆ SR 104 🐾 —

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Only One Blue
Confidence: Speculative

Only One Blue (SR:107, 9/2) drops three class tiers — the most significant class relief in the field — and carries a manageable 11-4, giving her a clear weight-for-SR edge over top-weight Onefournine (SR:113, 12-0). The market has shortened 6% from opening, suggesting quiet but real confidence from connections. Her form string 23324- shows consistent placed efforts and while the dash (last run) is unexplained, the class drop from a higher level where she was placing regularly makes her the most likely beneficiary today. Max Comley's 12% strike rate is modest but the Freddie Mitchell booking at a course where she has placed before adds structure to the case. Each-way alternative: Kosasiempre. Main danger: Kosasiempre — Kosasiempre (SR:116, 5/1) is the highest-rated runner in the field and carries only 11-6, and while the going and distance flags are unknown, Stuart Edmunds runs at a 16% strike rate and the form string 71431- contains a recent win — she is capable of going close if firing on the day.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 168-day absence (form string ends with dash) is unexplained — a 5-month layoff returning over fences/hurdles at Chepstow's testing track is a meaningful fitness question mark.
  • Freddie Mitchell holds only a 10% strike rate from 144 rides — below course-average competence and notably weaker than Harry Skelton (26%) on Miss Cynthia and Jonjo O'Neill Jr. (15%) on market rival…
  • Kosasiempre (SR:116) sits 9 points above Only One Blue on ratings and, despite drifting 6%, carries only 11-6 with a more recent run and proven placing form — the class relief narrative is undercut b…
  • Flash Bardot has shortened 15% into the market, run just 19 days ago (race-fit), and carries a +21 mark move suggesting improving profile — a sharper, in-form rival that the primary case does not add…
Shortlist Only One Blue, Kosasiempre, Onefournine, Flash Bardot
Each-way: Kosasiempre Danger: Kosasiempre

🗺 The Course Class 4

2m3f100y Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Chepstow Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade