Roscommon 16:00 RESULTED
12 Oct 2026

Last Monday Roscommon Rated Race

Roscommon Rated Race · 1m2f95y

Official Result

Roscommon Rated Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Ryefield Dasher (IRE) Nicola Burns · Thomas Gibney
    3/1
  2. 8/1
  3. 9/4J
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Roscommon

13:30–17:07 · 8 races

Worcester

13:37–16:37 · 7 races

Musselburgh

13:47–16:50 · 7 races

Yarmouth

13:54–16:55 · 7 races

Kempton (AW)

16:12–20:15 · 9 races

Newcastle (AW)

16:28–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Back Straight silks
Back Straight FAV
Age 3 · 9-12
2-17
90
90
90
3
9-12
★★★☆☆
—
11/4 2/1 5/2
Back Straight won two starts back and was second three starts back, so he has the profile of a leading threat, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is a seventh last time out only seven days ago, while he carries 138 lb from draw 4.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Minella Rockett silks
Minella Rockett FAV
Age 3 · 9-12
-45112
90
97
90
3
9-12
★★★☆☆
—
7/4 2/1 7/4
Minella Rockett is our pick on profile: a second last time out follows back-to-back wins, and he returns fresh after 27 days having run over today's trip. Carrying 138 lb from draw 6, his only drawback is a rating of 90 that ranks him second of seven on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Retracement silks
Retracement
Age 5 · 9-11
0-6740
85
75
87
5
9-11
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 11/2 5/1
Retracement has run over today's trip and going and arrives fresh after 29 days, with our rating of 87 ranking him third of seven and a speed figure of 96 marking him a live threat from stall five. The concern is a winless five-race spell, with a fourth two starts back his best finish.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
God Of Power silks
God Of Power
Age 3 · 9-10
124320
88
76
83
3
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 FCST 5/1
Placed in three of his last five before an unplaced latest run, a second two starts back and a third three starts back, God Of Power has run over today's trip and returns after 29 days, though carrying 136 lb from stall seven off an official 88 is the main risk.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Neo Smart silks
Neo Smart
Age 5 · 9-1
546622
67
68
72
5
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 11/1 9/1
Neo Smart arrives in decent heart with a second last time out and another second two starts back, but she is yet to win in her last six and was only sixth and sixth before that. Having run over today's trip and going helps, yet she rates seventh of seven on our figures from draw two.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Royal Bones silks
Royal Bones
Age 3 · 8-11
6230
74
80
74
3
8-11
★★★☆☆
—
7/1 13/2 6/1
Royal Bones was unplaced last time out after a third two starts back and a second three starts back, so he is yet to win in his last four, though he returns fresh enough after 21 days and has run over today's trip. Ranked fifth of seven on our rating, he looks a midfield type off 123 lb from stall three.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Ryefield Dasher silks
Ryefield Dasher
Age 3 · 8-11
-60531
75
77
73
3
8-11
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 8/1 3/1
Won last time out and a third two starts back, with 23 days since that win, yet he is hard to fancy: he has run on today's going but his 73 rating ranks sixth of seven, and he is 2 lb shy of his official 75. He carries 123 lb from stall one.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Back Straight 11/4 open 3.25 5/2 open 3.00 11/4 open 3.00 11/4 open 3.00 11/4 open 3.00 11/4 open 3.00 11/4 Bet365
2 Minella Rockett 7/4 open 3.00 15/8 open 3.50 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 15/8 open 3.25 2/1 Coral
3 Retracement 6/1 open 8.00 5/1 open 6.50 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 Bet365
4 God Of Power 13/2 6/1 open 6.00 11/2 11/2 5/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 Bet365
5 Neo Smart 11/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 11/1 Bet365
6 Royal Bones 7/1 open 8.50 6/1 open 7.50 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 7/1 Bet365
7 Ryefield Dasher 4/1 open 10.00 7/2 open 15.00 10/3 open 9.00 10/3 open 9.50 3/1 open 9.00 7/2 open 9.00 4/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Back Straight

Live signal

Back Straight owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 M D O'Callaghan Colin Keane
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Minella Rockett

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/4 · John J Nallen
✓ Value Signal

Neo Smart

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

11/1 · J S Bolger
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Back Straight
61.8 11/4
2 2. Minella Rockett
59.3 7/4
3 7. Ryefield Dasher
51.7 4/1
4 6. Royal Bones
51.4 7/1
5 4. God Of Power
50.6 13/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Minella Rockett
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 3 · 9-12
7/4
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾 —

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 3 · 9-12
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾 —

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 8-11
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾 —

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-11
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-10
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 8-11
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 5 · 9-1
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Minella Rockett
Confidence: Speculative

Minella Rockett (SR 97, 7/4) is the clear SR leader in this field by 17 points over the next best, and a form line of 45112 shows a progressive 3yo who has won two of its last three starts. The market has backed it in 11% from opening, suggesting confident stable support, and the 9-12 weight is shared with Back Straight, so there is no meaningful lbs disadvantage. While MarkMv:+5 means it runs off a higher mark than last win, the SR gap is wide enough that rivals would need significant improvement to bridge it. Back Straight, the only horse with a shorter implied chance at 10/3, has drifted a striking 37% since opening — that is a significant market negative that tilts firmly toward Minella Rockett. Each-way alternative: Royal Bones. Main danger: Royal Bones — Royal Bones (SR 80, 6/1) has been backed in 16% from opening, carries a light 8-11, and is trained by Mrs Harrington whose yard knows how to place horses — if Minella Rockett's MarkMv:+5 rise proves costly, Royal Bones is the most likely beneficiary.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Reese Holohan is a 5lb claimer with a 10% strike rate — at a track like Roscommon where positioning matters, his inexperience at this level could cost Minella Rockett a winning margin.
  • Trainer John J Nallen has a modest 10% strike rate from only 191 runners, a thin book that raises questions about whether the stable regularly fires horses into win condition first time off 27 days.
  • MarkMv:+5 means Minella Rockett runs off a mark 5lb higher than when last successful — in a competitive 3yo handicap that uplift alone could be enough to put a classy rival on terms with it.
  • Royal Bones (SR:80, 6/1, in16%) is freshened on just 21 days, backed by the Shane Foley/Mrs Harrington combination (both 11% SR) and comes off a form line that includes a 2 and a 3 — a live danger at…
Shortlist Minella Rockett, Royal Bones, Ryefield Dasher
Each-way: Royal Bones Danger: Royal Bones

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m2f95y Distance to cover
Soft Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting