Roscommon 14:00 RESULTED
12 Oct 2026

Last Monday Guinness Handicap

Guinness Handicap · 7f111y

Official Result

Guinness Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Contrary To Law (IRE) Ben Coen · J. P. Murtagh
    7/2F
  2. 4/1
  3. 5/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Roscommon

13:30–17:07 · 8 races

Worcester

13:37–16:37 · 7 races

Musselburgh

13:47–16:50 · 7 races

Yarmouth

13:54–16:55 · 7 races

Kempton (AW)

16:12–20:15 · 9 races

Newcastle (AW)

16:28–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 16 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 3 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Tyraxes silks
Tyraxes
Age 4 · 8-13
045977
61
42
67
4
8-13
★☆☆☆☆
—
SP 20/1 28/1
Tyraxes is hard to fancy, winless in his last six with a seventh last time out, another seventh two starts back and a ninth three runs ago. He has run over today's trip and is back quickly after 12 days, but 125 lb from stall five asks plenty.
AI verdict

SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

1
Gypsy Queen silks
Gypsy Queen
Age 4 · 10-0
518-0
76
56
83
4
10-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
16/1 10/1 16/1
Gypsy Queen won three starts back and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 83 ranks her fourth of 15, making her a live threat from stall nine. The risk is a 108-day absence, coming after an eighth and an unplaced run in her last two outings.
AI verdict

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

2
She's Too Kool silks
She's Too Kool
Age 3 · 10-0
504314
79
69
78
3
10-0
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 14/1 12/1
She's Too Kool bounces between solid and ordinary: a fourth last time out, and a winner two starts back, show she can pick up a race, while a fourth four starts back and a fifth six starts back leave her short of consistent. She has run over today's trip, but 140 lb from stall 10 looks a lot, and our rating of 78 ranks her seventh of 15.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Breaking Dawn silks
Breaking Dawn
Age 3 · 9-12
44-100
77
65
88
3
9-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 12/1 20/1
Won three starts back and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 88 ranks him top of the 15 and sits well clear of his official 77. The main risk is a 122-day absence after two unplaced runs since, and he carries 138 lb from stall 16.
AI verdict

SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

4
Minaun View silks
Minaun View
Age 4 · 9-11
715561
73
67
72
4
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
10/1 13/2 10/1
Fresh from a win last time out just 14 days ago, Minaun View has run over today's trip and going, but a sixth and two fifths in the prior three runs before that show inconsistency. Carrying 137 lb from stall 1, she's ranked tenth of 15 by our rating of 72.
AI verdict

SR 67 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Nakamura silks
Nakamura
Age 3 · 9-11
782070
76
66
87
3
9-11
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 12/1 14/1
Nakamura makes plenty of appeal on profile, having run just eight days ago and with experience over today's trip and going, plus a second four starts back to show he can get involved. He's yet to win in his last six, but our figures rank him second of 15.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Save The Sixes silks
Save The Sixes
Age 3 · 9-11
814
76
75
76
3
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 5/1 6/1
Fourth last time out and a winner two starts back, she's quick to turn out again after 11 days and has run over today's trip, but 137 lb from stall four looks a stiff ask for a filly ranked eighth of 15 on our rating.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Earls silks
Earls
Age 9 · 9-10
223709
72
69
83
9
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 11/1 9/1
Earls is yet to win in his last six starts, though a second and a third five and four runs back show he can go close, and he has run over today's trip and going before. A ninth last time out and 136 lb from stall seven temper enthusiasm, though our rating of 83 ranks him fifth of 15.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Java Wood silks
Java Wood
Age 6 · 9-10
307148
72
65
76
6
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 FCST 12/1
Java Wood arrives off a disappointing eighth last time out, though he was a fourth two starts back and a winner three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 136 lb from stall 11, he sits ninth of 15 on our rating of 76, so he needs a bounce back.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Contrary To Law silks
Contrary To Law FAV
Age 3 · 9-9
671466
74
79
84
3
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 5/1 10/3
Won four starts back and has run over today's trip and going, while only eight days since his last run keeps him fit; our rating of 84 ranks him third of 15, though back-to-back sixth-place finishes are the main worry.
AI verdict

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Mercurial silks
Mercurial
Age 7 · 9-7
-42836
69
73
79
7
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 13/2 5/1
Mercurial is winless in his last five, though a third two starts back and a second four starts back show he can hit the frame, and he has run over today's trip and going. A sixth last time out after 20 days off and a 133 lb burden hold him back, though our rating of 79 sits well above his official 69.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
La La Lucrative silks
La La Lucrative
Age 5 · 9-5
181432
67
76
70
5
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 4/1 5/1
La La Lucrative arrives in solid form, second last time out, third two starts back, and a winner four starts back, after a 20-day break, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 131 lb from stall two, he looks held back by a ranking of 11 of 15 on our rating of 70.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Selective Power silks
Selective Power
Age 7 · 9-3
494451
65
69
70
7
9-3
★★★☆☆
—
8/1 7/1 8/1
Selective Power won last time out, just twelve days ago, but that came after a run of fourth, fourth and fifth finishes and a ninth, so the form is patchy. He has run over today's trip and going, yet 129 lb and a 12th-of-15 ranking on our figures make him hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Solomon silks
Solomon
Age 5 · 9-3
097-60
65
39
67
5
9-3
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 33/1 50/1
Solomon is winless in his last five, finishing unplaced last time out and then a sixth, seventh and ninth before that, so he is hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going and is back after 38 days, but our figures rank him 15th of 15 from stall 14.
AI verdict

SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

14
Final Boss silks
Final Boss
Age 3 · 8-12
5-0607
63
41
68
3
8-12
★★☆☆☆
—
50/1 25/1 50/1
Final Boss is winless in his last five, finishing seventh last time out and no better than a fifth five starts back, so he is hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going and is back quickly after 12 days, while our rating of 68 still ranks him 14th of 15.
AI verdict

SR 41 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

15
Girl Bear silks
Girl Bear
Age 3 · 8-12
793789
63
42
68
3
8-12
★★☆☆☆
—
25/1 18/1 25/1
Girl Bear is winless in her last six, with a ninth last time out, an eighth two starts back and a seventh three starts back, and she returns after 41 days off. She has run over today's trip and going and has a third four starts back, but our rating of 68 ranks her 13th of 15.
AI verdict

SR 42 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Tyraxes 28/1 open 21.00 33/1 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 Paddy Power
1 Gypsy Queen 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 Bet365
2 She's Too Kool 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 Bet365
3 Breaking Dawn 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 Bet365
4 Minaun View 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 Bet365
5 Nakamura 16/1 open 15.00 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 Bet365
6 Save The Sixes 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 Coral
7 Earls 11/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 11/1 Bet365
8 Java Wood 14/1 12/1 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 12/1 14/1 Bet365
9 Contrary To Law 4/1 open 7.50 7/2 open 6.00 10/3 open 6.50 10/3 open 6.50 7/2 open 6.50 7/2 open 6.50 4/1 Bet365
10 Mercurial 6/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 9.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 6/1 Bet365
11 La La Lucrative 5/1 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 6/1 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 6/1 Ladbrokes
12 Selective Power 8/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.00 8/1 open 8.00 8/1 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 Paddy Power
13 Solomon 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 Bet365
14 Final Boss 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365
15 Girl Bear 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Contrary To Law

Speculative

Contrary To Law owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 J. P. Murtagh Ben Coen
79% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Save The Sixes

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · Mrs J. Harrington
✓ Value Signal

Final Boss

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Matthew J Smith
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 9. Contrary To Law
58.9 4/1
2 6. Save The Sixes
52.1 6/1
3 11. La La Lucrative
50.3 5/1
4 10. Mercurial
49.5 6/1
5 12. Selective Power
46.4 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Contrary To Law
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

9
Age 3 · 9-9
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 5 · 9-5
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾 —

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-11
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 7 · 9-7
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 7 · 9-3
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-11
10/1
★★★☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 9 · 9-10
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 3 · 10-0
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 6 · 9-10
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾 —

SR 65 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾 —

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

5
Age 3 · 9-11
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-12
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾 —

SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Contrary To Law
Confidence: Speculative

Contrary To Law (SR:79, 11/2) carries the highest SR in the field by a clear margin and does so off just 9-9, giving a meaningful weight advantage over heavier-loaded rivals like La La Lucrative (9-5 but SR:76) and Save The Sixes (9-11, SR:75). The Murtagh yard has two runners and the signals point here as the stable's number one — Ben Coen is the stronger booking over Seamie Heffernan on Nakamura, and Contrary To Law has shown a gentle market move in (Mkt:in6%) while Nakamura has drifted (Mkt:out12%). The DistFit:~ and GoingFit:? are mild negatives but offset by the class edge and connections confidence; a mark that has risen only 4lb since last win (MarkMv:+4) leaves the horse competitive. Each-way alternative: Earls. Main danger: La La Lucrative — La La Lucrative (SR:76, 9/2) is the market favourite with an excellent course record (W2P2 at Roscommon) and while the MarkMv:+10 is a concern, course specialists on a track like Roscommon often overcome a rising mark.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit:? is a genuine unknown — HG:h (hood) suggests a horse that can be temperamental, and if today's Roscommon ground doesn't suit, the SR:79 rating may be theoretical rather than achievable.
  • DistFit:~ signals distance is not a confirmed strength; in a 16-runner handicap, being found wanting for stamina late can be fatal regardless of class edge.
  • La La Lucrative (SR:76, Course:W2P2) has proven course form at Roscommon and is lower in the weights at 9-5 — the weight-for-class argument for Contrary To Law is narrower than it looks against this…
  • Form:671466 shows no win in six starts and the most recent figures (6,6) suggest a horse flattening out rather than improving — the +4 mark rise is small but the absence of a win makes the SR look li…
Shortlist Contrary To Law, Save The Sixes, La La Lucrative, Earls
Each-way: Earls Danger: La La Lucrative

🗺 The Course Race conditions

7f111y Distance to cover
Soft Expected going
16 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting