Newcastle (AW) 18:00 RESULTED
Class 4 12 Oct 2026

Last Monday Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes

Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes · 6f

Official Result

Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Siouxperb (GB) Connor Beasley · Archie Watson
    11/4F
  2. 11/2
  3. 6/1
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16:28–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Treasurer silks
Treasurer Non-Runner
Age 2 · 9-9
40178
85
—
85OR
2
9-9
—
—
SP
—
1
Siouxperb silks
Siouxperb FAV
Age 2 · 9-10
10280
86
88
87
2
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
9/4 11/2 2/1
Siouxperb gets the nod on profile: he was second three starts back and won five starts back, and he has run over today's trip, with a 24-day break since an unplaced latest effort. Our rating of 87 sits just above his official 86, though he carries 136 lb from draw four.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Innichen silks
Innichen
Age 2 · 9-8
113036
84
88
89
2
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 10/3 4/1
Two wins in his last six starts, a third two runs back and another third four back, make Innichen a leading threat, and our rating of 89 ranks him top of six; he has run over today's trip and drew stall six. The risk is a sixth last time out after 31 days off, so he has to bounce back carrying 134 lb.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Starburster silks
Starburster
Age 2 · 9-6
41
82
91
83
2
9-6
★★★☆☆
—
5/2 3/2 5/2
Starburster won last time out, with a fourth two starts back, and has run over today's trip, so she arrives a leading danger with our rating of 83 ranking her fourth of six. The one concern is a 47-day break, plus 132 lb from stall 2.
AI verdict

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Minzelle silks
Minzelle
Age 2 · 9-4
31604
80
89
87
2
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 9/2 6/1
Minzelle comes here fresh from a fourth last time out just four days ago, and she has run over today's trip and on the going before, while our rating of 87 ranks her second of six. The main risk is a quick turnaround after a modest run of finishes since her win four starts back.
AI verdict

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Blazing Inferno silks
Blazing Inferno
Age 2 · 9-0
10
76
75
68
2
9-0
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 9/4 11/2
Blazing Inferno won two starts back but was unplaced last time out, and after 32 days off he's hard to fancy as our bottom-ranked runner of six on 68. He has run over today's trip and is drawn one, but he carries 126 lb off an official 76.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Gladys Pugh silks
Gladys Pugh
Age 2 · 9-0
5260
76
64
76
2
9-0
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 12/1 10/1
Gladys Pugh is yet to win in her last four starts and was unplaced last time out, after a sixth two starts back, which makes her hard to fancy. A second three starts back and a break of 24 days are in her favour, and she has run over today's trip, while our rating of 76 ranks her fifth of six.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Treasurer — — — — — — —
1 Siouxperb 9/4 open 6.50 2/1 open 9.00 9/4 open 7.50 9/4 open 7.50 9/4 open 8.00 2/1 open 7.00 9/4 Bet365
3 Innichen 4/1 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 4.33 5/1 Paddy Power
4 Starburster 5/2 open 3.00 5/2 open 3.00 5/2 open 3.00 5/2 open 3.00 5/2 open 3.00 5/2 open 2.50 5/2 Bet365
5 Minzelle 13/2 open 5.50 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 Bet365
6 Blazing Inferno 13/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 3.25 6/1 open 4.00 6/1 open 4.00 6/1 open 4.00 6/1 open 5.50 13/2 Bet365
7 Gladys Pugh 12/1 10/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 21.00 12/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Starburster

Speculative

Starburster owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/2 Richard Spencer Saffie Osborne
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Siouxperb

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · Archie Watson
✓ Value Signal

Gladys Pugh

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

12/1 · Kevin Ryan
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
88 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.9 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Starburster
59.4 5/2
2 1. Siouxperb
56.5 9/4
3 3. Innichen
53.6 4/1
4 5. Minzelle
53.4 13/2
5 6. Blazing Inferno
48.9 13/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Starburster
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Siouxperb FAV
Age 2 · 9-10
9/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 2 · 9-6
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 91 🐾 —

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 2 · 9-8
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 2 · 9-4
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 89 🐾 —

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 2 · 9-0
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 2 · 9-0
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾 —

SR 64 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

Steamers Shortened — market backing

No steamers in this race.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Starburster
Confidence: Medium

Starburster (SR 91, 13/8) is the SR leader in this six-runner nursery and carries only 9-6, giving it a 4lb advantage over Siouxperb despite the superior rating. The form string 41 — a placed run followed by a win — is compact but clean, and the market has firmed 8% since opening, reflecting genuine confidence from connections. Richard Spencer (15% strike rate) and Saffie Osborne (14%) are a capable pairing, and while DistFit:? and GoingFit:? signal inexperience at this trip and going, the absence of a proven negative (no '-' flags) is very different from a proven failure. Against this, Siouxperb's 31% steam is notable but its form string 10280 contains a '0' and an '8' in recent runs — concrete poor performances — while Starburster's only negatives are unknowns, not demonstrated flaws. Each-way alternative: Siouxperb. Main danger: Siouxperb — The 31% market steam is the strongest move in the field and Archie Watson's stable clearly fancies this drop two classes, meaning if the market knows something about today's conditions or the horse's wellbeing, it could outrun its patchy recent form.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string of just '41' means Starburster has raced only twice — a very thin evidence base for a nursery at this level, leaving fitness and class response largely untested.
  • 47 days since last run is the longest absence in the field; sharpness on return is unproven, and a juveniles' fitness after six-plus weeks can be a real issue.
  • DistFit:? and GoingFit:? both unresolved on Tapeta at Newcastle AW — neither trip nor surface suitability confirmed, while rivals like Innichen carry a 'p' Handicap flag suggesting more AW experience.
  • Minzelle (K.R. Burke, 20% strike rate — highest in the field) is 4 days fresher, has six runs of race-sharpening, and Burke's yard form gives that rival a tangible trainer edge over Spencer's 15%.
Shortlist Starburster, Siouxperb, Innichen
Each-way: Siouxperb Danger: Siouxperb

🗺 The Course Class 4

6f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade