Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
State Of Wyoming owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
15/8P. TwomeyW. J. Lee
75%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
A Good Yarn
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Aidan Anthony Howard✓ Value Signal
Airborne Ranger
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
100/1 · David Marnane◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Karrygrant (SR:92, 15/8) is the joint-favourite and the only runner in the field with a confirmed DistFit:+ at this 7f111y trip, a crucial edge in a maiden where State Of Wyoming (DistFit:?) and Resurgence (DistFit:+) share the distance credential but Resurgence drifted in the challenge review. Trainer J. P. Murtagh (11%, 1371 runners) and jockey Ben Coen (11%, 1887 runners) form a consistent double-figure combination, and the consistent form line of 532322 shows a horse finding its level and knocking on the door — a '2' last time out just seven days ago suggests peak fitness. The headgear (tongue-tie + blinkers, HG:tb) applied adds focus, and at 15/8 the market is pricing this horse as co-favourite with no drift to concern us. State Of Wyoming holds the SR advantage at 154 versus 92, but a '06' form line, a visor first-time, and an 11% market drift are three concrete negatives that tip the balance toward Karrygrant.
Each-way alternative: Resurgence.
Main danger: State Of Wyoming — State Of Wyoming holds the highest SR in the field at 154 and trainer P. Twomey strikes at 25% — if the visor sharpens him up and the '06' form line understates his ability, he has the raw talent to win despite the drift.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
SR:92 is the joint-lowest in the field — State Of Wyoming (154) and A Good Yarn (150) bring substantially superior raw ability ratings, suggesting Karrygrant may simply be outclassed despite its cons…
Six runs in a 7f111y maiden with a best finish of 2nd and a form line of 532322 indicates a horse that keeps getting beaten — peak fitness doesn't cure a chronic inability to get its head in front.
Resurgence (SR:92, 3/1) has moved INTO the market by 19% and shares the DistFit:+ credential with a trainer (Harrington, 11%) and jockey (Foley, 11%) combo of identical calibre — it is a direct, impr…
Hassaniya is 11/1 with Colin Keane (16% strike rate) drifting IN 20% — that market support from the field's highest-strike-rate jockey on a horse showing headgear change represents a significant unad…
ShortlistKarrygrant, State Of Wyoming, Resurgence, A Good Yarn