Kilbeggan 20:05 RESULTED
21 Aug 2026

Friday 21 August John Thomas McNamara Series Flat Race

John Thomas McNamara Series Flat Race · 2m0f0y

Official Result

John Thomas McNamara Series Flat Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Hill Silver (IRE) Mr D McGill · Ciaran Murphy
    6/5F
  2. 4/1
  3. 9/1
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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Bellahill silks
Bellahill
Age 6 · 12-0
3/
82
6
12-0
9/2 6/1 4/1
Bellahill returns from a 509-day absence carrying 168 lb, but he shaped with promise when third last time out and remains unexposed, leaving plenty of room for improvement on his limited showing.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Blackwood Joe silks
Blackwood Joe
Age 5 · 12-0
0
58
5
12-0
200/1 150/1 200/1
Unexposed and open to improvement, Blackwood Joe returns after 18 days carrying 168 lb and, though yet to win in recent starts, his lightly raced profile leaves plenty to work with.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 200/1.

3
In Around Thehouse silks
In Around Thehouse
Age 5 · 12-0
F-
73
5
12-0
16/1 10/1 16/1
Unexposed and open to improvement, In Around Thehouse returns from a 467-day absence having fallen on his sole recent start, carrying 168 lb as he bids to show what he's capable of on a comeback that leaves plenty of questions unanswered.
AI verdict

SR 73 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Long Story silks
Long Story
Age 6 · 12-0
779
70
6
12-0
22/1 14/1 22/1
Unexposed and open to improvement, Long Story has been finding things tough in his last three starts but remains lightly raced and capable of better; yet to win, he carries 168 lb on a 31-day break and could still have more to offer.
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Ddakji silks
Ddakji
Age 4 · 11-11
0-9
66
68
4
11-11
8/1 9/2 8/1
Ddakji arrives here 25 days fresh, has run over today's trip, and our rating of 68 puts him third of eleven in the field; the risk is that a ninth-place finish last time out leaves him needing a sharp upturn on recent form to trouble the principals.
AI verdict

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Hill Silver silks
Hill Silver
Age 4 · 11-11
44
90
90
4
11-11
11/8 31/19 5/4
Hill Silver has run over today's trip and arrives here in decent nick after 25 days off, with his speed rating of 93 giving him a strong case as the chief danger to the top-rated runner; the risk is that he remains winless in his last two starts.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Lone Ash Lad silks
Lone Ash Lad
Age 4 · 11-11
76
4
11-11
16/1 11/1 16/1
Unexposed on debut, Lone Ash Lad is yet to score under rules and arrives as an unknown quantity, but that lightly raced profile leaves plenty of room for improvement as he steps out carrying 165 lb.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Reafadda silks
Reafadda
Age 4 · 11-11
6
73
4
11-11
22/1 14/1 22/1
Lightly raced and unexposed, Reafadda is yet to score in recent starts but remains open to improvement; the yard is without a return from its last 20 runners over a fortnight, and 165 lb is a stern ask as he bids to build on that sixth.
AI verdict

SR 73 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
A Quest For Cognac silks
A Quest For Cognac
Age 6 · 11-7
F/0
62
6
11-7
40/1 33/1 40/1
Unexposed and open to improvement, A Quest For Cognac has shown limited recent form — unplaced before a fall — yet to win in her last two starts, though carrying 161 lb she merits respect as a lightly raced mare with more to offer.
AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

10
Baymount silks
Baymount
Age 5 · 11-7
8P-P3
91
96
5
11-7
5/2 FCST 9/4
Baymount has run over today's trip and going before, and a third last time out — after two pulled-up efforts — suggests she is returning to form at the right moment; winless in her last four, the weight is a notable ask at 161 lb, but her rating heads the field.
AI verdict

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
No Brainer silks
No Brainer
Age 5 · 11-7
P-P0
62
5
11-7
100/1
Unexposed and yet to score, No Brainer returns after 36 days carrying 161 lb, and with two pull-ups in her recent record she faces questions on that front, though her lightly raced profile leaves room for better.
AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Bellahill 9/2 open 7.50 4/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.50 9/2 open 7.50 9/2 open 7.50 4/1 open 7.50 9/2 Bet365
2 Blackwood Joe 200/1 open 151.00 200/1 open 151.00 200/1 200/1 200/1 open 151.00 200/1 200/1 Bet365
3 In Around Thehouse 16/1 open 11.00 20/1 open 11.00 18/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 12.00 20/1 open 12.00 20/1 Paddy Power
4 Long Story 22/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 Paddy Power
5 Ddakji 8/1 open 6.00 9/1 open 5.50 17/2 open 6.00 17/2 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 9/1 Paddy Power
6 Hill Silver 11/8 open 2.75 5/4 open 2.63 11/8 open 2.75 11/8 open 2.75 11/8 open 2.88 5/4 open 2.75 11/8 Bet365
7 Lone Ash Lad 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 Bet365
8 Reafadda 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 Bet365
9 A Quest For Cognac 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 40/1 Bet365
10 Baymount 5/2 open 3.75 5/2 open 3.75 11/4 11/4 5/2 open 3.75 9/4 11/4 Coral
11 No Brainer 100/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 100/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Hill Silver

Speculative

Hill Silver owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/8 Ciaran Murphy Mr D McGill
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Baymount

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/2 · Anthony Mullins
✓ Value Signal

Blackwood Joe

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

200/1 · E Sheehy
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Hill Silver
56.6 11/8
2 10. Baymount
56.2 5/2
3 1. Bellahill
54.4 9/2
4 7. Lone Ash Lad
47.8 16/1
5 3. In Around Thehouse
46.4 16/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Hill Silver
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 4 · 11-11
11/8
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 5 · 11-7
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 91 🐾

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 6 · 12-0
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 4 · 11-11
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 12-0
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 4 · 11-11
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Hill Silver
Confidence: Speculative

Hill Silver (SR:90, 15/8) holds the second-highest SR in the field and is one of only two horses in a genuinely competitive ability range. Carrying 11-11 gives a 3lb weight advantage over the heavier-weighted older rivals at 12-0, and at 4 years old offers the most upside in a bumper-style flat race where younger, less exposed horses tend to progress. The 15/8 price reflects market confidence, and with consistent placed form (44) it has not disgraced itself. While DistFit and GoingFit data are absent for all runners — a universal blank across the field — there is no specific evidence of a trip or ground concern to discount it. Each-way alternative: Baymount. Main danger: Baymount — Baymount holds the field's highest SR (91) and despite a patchy recent form string (8P-P3) showed a latest run of '3' suggesting some return to form; Anthony Mullins' yard at 7% strike rate from 68 runners is respectable and the 11-7 weight is the lightest in the field, giving a meaningful lbs advantage over Hill Silver.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads just '44' — two consecutive fourth-place finishes with no win or closer placing suggests a horse that competes but doesn't convert, a concern at a short 15/8 price.
  • Baymount (SR:91) holds a higher SR than Hill Silver and comes in fresher (14 days since last run) with a placed effort (3) in recent form, representing a live threat at the top of the market.
  • Trainer Ciaran Murphy strikes at only 8% and jockey Mr D McGill at 6% — both well below average strike rates in a race where the handler/rider combination needs to fire on the day.
  • The market has drifted or is not notably strong versus Baymount at 11/4 — Hill Silver is shorter yet has a lower SR and less recent placed form, suggesting layers may prefer the second-favourite.
Shortlist Hill Silver, Baymount, Bellahill
Each-way: Baymount Danger: Baymount

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m0f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Kilbeggan Track and setting