Plage De Havre shaped with clear promise when third two starts back, and a winner four starts back, carrying 138 lb off a top-rated profile that marks him as a leading contender; the chief concern is that ninth last time out leaves his current form under a cloud.
Form last 631-639
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR105RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Wave Rider showed a win and a second in recent starts but has been unplaced twice since, and at 137 lb he faces a stiff weight task; experience on today's going is a plus, and 24 days off suggests he returns fresh.
Form last 612-030
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR96RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
French Duke won five starts back and returns here fit on a 15-day turnaround, with experience of today's trip and going in his favour; carrying 135 lb is worth noting, but his overall profile makes him our pick at a rating of 104.
Form last 6-16066
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR104RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Master Vintner won last time out and has placed in two of his three starts before that, so current form is solid, though his speed rating of 84 and rank of ninth of sixteen suggest he faces a stiff ask at 134 lb.
Form last 60-7221
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR95RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won three starts back but has offered little since, finishing seventh and then fifth in his most recent outings, and at 133 lb off a mark of 95 he faces a stiff ask; has run over today's trip and retains some ability, but needs to recapture that earlier form after 41 days off.
Form last 60-4175
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR97RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tycoon has been knocking at the door, finishing third two starts back and runner-up last time out 27 days ago, and he has experience of today's distance and going; carrying 132 lb while yet to win in recent starts is the main concern.
Form last 6-53032
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR104RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bounced back to win last time out, which is the obvious positive, but two unplaced efforts before that and a 100-day absence since give reason for caution; he has run over today's trip and going, and 130 lb is no featherweight ask on a comeback.
Form last 60600-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR101RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well adrift of the field on our figures, Sportingsilvermine is hard to fancy despite two wins in his last six starts, though he arrives here on a snappy 13-day turnaround with experience of today's distance and going to call upon.
Form last 6713102
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR93RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked a lowly 13th of 16 on our figures, Say What You See is hard to fancy at the weights despite a lively recent sequence that includes a winner two starts back and a runner-up last time out; he has the experience of today's trip and going, but the speed rating of 86 makes him a tough sell.
Form last 6352112
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
90SR93RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Explode arrives on the back of back-to-back wins and clearly in the form of his life, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour; however, a return in just six days and a patchy record before that purple patch — including an eighth and two other poor efforts in his last five — give reason for caution at 128 lb.
Form last 660-811
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR95RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and beaten a long way back in three of them, Zanndabad at least has experience over today's trip and a speed rating that hints at more ability than his recent efforts suggest, though 55 days off and 127 lb are questions he must answer.
Form last 6049-88
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR98RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Shadow Dance arrives here 139 days fresh, and a rating of 104 puts him notably ahead of his official mark of 89, suggesting he holds strong claims — yet his recent string of unplaced and mid-field efforts makes it hard to trust he can finally get his head in front.
Form last 607-670
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR104RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked 11 of 16 here, Genealogy at least has experience over today's trip and going to call on, and 40 days off may have freshened him; the 126 lb burden is the obvious concern against stronger rivals.
Form last 6/88-50
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR94RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked near the foot of this field on our figures, Primo Lara faces a stiff task, yet back-to-back wins in his last two starts give him genuine momentum, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6962511
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR93RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well down the field on our figures and winless in his last four starts, Jimmy Speaking faces a stiff ask here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a handy 15-day turnaround carrying 122 lb.
Form last 6112944
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
65SR93RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and rated 5 lb below his official mark, Cuff It faces a stiff task, though he does arrive on the back of a win two starts ago and has experience of today's going.
Form last 6514
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR82RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Primo Lara owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2Jane Chapple-HyamColin Keane
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Wave Rider
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · George Scott✓ Value Signal
Genealogy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Faye Bramley◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Plage De Havre (SR:97, 8/1) carries the joint-highest SR in the field and has steamed in 45% from opening price — the strongest market move of any runner by some distance — signalling significant informed support. At 9-12 the weight is manageable given the SR advantage, and DistFit:+ confirms this 1m3f188y trip suits. Andrew Balding (19% strike rate, 1464 runners) is a serious operator at this level, and P J McDonald completes a confident booking. The form string 31-639 shows inconsistency but the market is clearly telling us this is the day connections expect a big run, and at 8/1 there is genuine value if that confidence is warranted.
Each-way alternative: Primo Lara.
Main danger: Primo Lara — Primo Lara (SR:97, 11/2) shares the joint-top SR, carries only 8-12 giving a weight edge of 14lb over Plage De Havre, has won two of his last two races (form 962511), and has also been backed in 23% — a progressive horse at a lighter weight is the most credible threat.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 31-639 includes a well-beaten 9th last time out, and with 48 days since that run there is no evidence of a bounce-back on the track — the layoff could reflect a problem rather than a plan…
Course record of W0P2 means Plage De Havre has never won at York despite two attempts; Primo Lara matches the SR (97) at a shorter price (11/2) and arrives on a 511 sequence with two recent wins.
Carrying 9-12 — the joint-highest weight in the field — in a competitive 17-runner handicap over an extended trip is a significant burden, especially against four-year-olds on lighter marks.
Despite a 45% market move in, the opening price implies connections lacked confidence before: big drifters in the early market that steam late can reflect late betting-ring activity rather than stabl…
ShortlistPlage De Havre, Primo Lara, Wave Rider, Tycoon