Second last time out and consistent enough in recent starts, Point Lynas arrives here 25 days fresh, has run over today's trip and going before, and a trainer firing at 38% in the last fortnight boosts his claims, even if he remains winless in his last five.
Form last 667-942
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
95SR118RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Arctic Dawn won last time out and has run over today's trip and conditions, giving him solid claims, but carrying 136 lb from stall one and ranking eleventh of seventeen on our rating suggests he faces a stiff ask against stronger company here.
Form last 6-31061
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR101RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Cerulean Bay shaped well when second one start back and has run over today's trip and conditions before, giving him a solid platform from stall nine on a quick turnaround of twelve days; the worry is his latest ninth suggests he can run below that level.
Form last 6258429
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
92SR111RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Centigrade arrives on the back of two wins in his last three starts, including a victory last time out, but the 63-day absence is a concern and our rating ranks him near the foot of this field, making it hard to fancy despite his recent winning thread.
Form last 621/1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
101SR96RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, giving The Lost King solid claims, though a 40-day break and a patchy recent sequence — unplaced one start back — temper enthusiasm; he carries 132 lb from stall 15.
Form last 6213401
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
99SR107RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bullet Point ran second last time out and returns quickly on 12 days' rest, having experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 108 suggesting he holds strong claims; the chief risk is a winless recent run of five starts.
Form last 670-702
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR108RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Checkandchallenge brings solid each-way claims after finishing third last time out, and his experience over today's trip and conditions is a genuine asset carrying 129 lb from stall six; the chief concern is that he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 69-0603
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR111RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts, Blue Brother at least shaped with a little promise when fourth one start back, though the eighth last time out is harder to spin; carrying 128 lb from stall five, he has run over today's trip and our rating of 108 offers some encouragement, but he needs to find improvement to force his way into contention.
Form last 6/60-48
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
96SR108RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Eternal Force won back-to-back races earlier in this sequence but has since finished seventh and second in his last two starts, with a sixth last time out after a 56-day absence; he has run over today's trip and going, though that layoff and the stall-12 draw add a degree of uncertainty.
Form last 611-726
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR102RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mezcala showed his quality with a win one start back, but comes here on the back of an unplaced effort and faces a stiff task from stall 17 carrying 128 lb; he has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 105 suggests he holds some claims.
Form last 67-1310
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
103SR105RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Hawksbill has run over today's trip and going before but arrives winless in his last six starts, with a fifth one run back the closest he has come to threatening; carrying 123 lb from stall seven, he looks a midfield trader at best.
Form last 6060757
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR101RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mirsky won in his last six starts but has posted three consecutive modest finishes since, and that string of nines and a seventh makes it hard to fancy him with confidence; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 123 lb from stall 16 rounds out a mixed profile.
Form last 6100799
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
69SR100RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked well down our figures, Nizam is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns after 63 days carrying 122 lb from stall four.
Form last 656-070
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
72SR98RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Third last time out, and a second the start before, show Yorkshire in fair recent nick, though he remains winless in his last five starts; the trainer's 38% strike rate over the past fortnight is an encouraging angle, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 69-0923
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR103RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Aalto is hard to fancy at the weights, yet he does arrive on the back of a third last time out and a win the start before, and has run over today's trip and going before, offering at least some platform.
Form last 6-90213
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR95RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 13 of 17 on our figures, Spell Master has been beaten into sixth and seventh in his last two starts, making him hard to fancy despite a third before that keeping some hope alive; distance and going experience and a 19-day turnaround offer little extra comfort.
Form last 61-8367
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR99RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked fifteenth of seventeen on our figures, The Angel King faces a stiff ask here, though a second last time out at least shows he can threaten the places, and he has experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6-70602
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR96RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Centigrade owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/4Ralph BeckettRossa Ryan
74%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Bullet Point
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · William Haggas✓ Value Signal
Mirsky
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · David O'Meara◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Centigrade (SR:101, 11/4) leads the field on Saturday Rating and carries a manageable 9-6, giving him a meaningful weight edge over heavier rivals while still sitting near the top of the ability rankings. His form of 21/1 — two recent wins bookending a break — shows a progressive 4-year-old in strong condition, and the market has firmed 12% since opening, indicating stable confidence in his chance. Ralph Beckett (17% strike rate, 932 career runners) is a shrewd handler of horses stepping up in class, and Rossa Ryan at 16% career strike rate is a reliable booking for a live chance. The unknowns on DistFit and GoingFit are the honest caveat, but a progressive 4-year-old with the best SR in the field and positive market drift is the most convincing case in a wide-open heritage handicap.
Each-way alternative: Mezcala.
Main danger: Mezcala — Mezcala (SR:103, 17/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries only 9-2 — 4lb less than Centigrade — and has confirmed GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ on today's conditions, with William Buick in the saddle at 20% career strike rate; if his last-run 0 (10th) is excused by a rough trip rather than a form collapse, he is the one most likely to overhaul the selection.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
63-day absence with no DistFit or GoingFit data is a significant unknown in a heritage handicap where rivals like Bullet Point, Cerulean Bay and Blue Brother arrive race-fit off 12-20 day breaks.
Mezcala carries a higher SR of 103 at 17/2 with William Buick booked and a MarkMv of +4, representing a stronger ability benchmark at a more generous price than Centigrade's 11/4.
The Lost King (SR:99, same weight 9-6) has a proven York course record of W1P1 and arrives 40 days fit versus Centigrade's 63-day layoff, offering comparable quality with a course edge.
Form string 21/1 — only three runs visible — gives the handicapper limited data to set an accurate mark; if the rating is slightly generous, rivals with more exposed form and race fitness could explo…
ShortlistCentigrade, Mezcala, The Lost King, Blue Brother