Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Steeplechase · 2m7f100y
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
SR 104 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 78 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ballystone | 9/2 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 7.50 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 2 Fort Dino | 7/2 open 11.00 | 3/1 open 11.00 | 10/3 open 11.00 | 10/3 open 11.00 | 3/1 open 12.00 | 10/3 open 10.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Happy Me | 66/1 open 51.00 | 70/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 | 70/1 Paddy Power |
| 4 Heroes Rise | 14/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 Paddy Power |
| 5 Lemmy Caution | 3/1 open 5.00 | 3/1 open 5.00 | 3/1 open 5.00 | 3/1 open 5.00 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 3/1 open 5.50 | 10/3 William Hill |
| 6 Themanintheanorak | 14/1 open 19.00 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 19.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Where's My Jet | 3/1 open 3.75 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 11/4 | 11/4 open 3.50 | 3/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Affinity Rock | 13/8 open 2.88 | 6/4 open 2.63 | 13/8 | 13/8 | 13/8 open 2.88 | 6/4 open 2.63 | 13/8 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Affinity Rock owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (71) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 104 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 78 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Affinity Rock (SR:128, 2/1) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — 16 SR points clear of second-best Where's My Jet and 18 clear of Lemmy Caution — and carries a favourable 11-5, 7lb lighter than every rival at 11-12, a meaningful edge in a beginners' chase over 2m7f on good ground. The form line /10-22 shows consistency at chase level with two recent placed efforts confirming current fitness and jumping competence; a beginners' chase at Killarney is the right opportunity to convert. The 5% market drift is modest and explainable given the 91-day absence, but the SR advantage and weight relief outweigh that concern. Cian Collins (7% trainer SR) is a smaller yard but Danny Gilligan (10%, 448 career runs) is a competent booking for the task. Each-way alternative: Fort Dino. Main danger: Fort Dino — Fort Dino (SR:92, 7/1) has been dramatically steamed 33% in the market — the strongest market move in the race — and Henry De Bromhead (14% strike rate, 1044 runners) is a serious operator who does not steam a horse 33% by accident; despite the 112-day absence and modest SR, market confidence of this magnitude on a young 5-year-old in a beginners' chase demands respect.