Newcastle (AW) 20:24 RESULTED
Class 4 20 Aug 2026

Thursday 20 August Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes

Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes · 0m5f0y

Official Result

Knox Hydrate Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Lethal Nymph (GB) David Nolan · Paul Midgley
    3/1F
  2. 22/1
  3. 4/1
AI ExplorerBETA Deep analytics
Race picker

Switch race

York

13:50–17:20 · 7 races

Newmarket (July)

14:00–16:51 · 6 races

Lingfield (AW)

14:10–17:01 · 6 races

Killarney

16:35–20:15 · 8 races

Leopardstown

16:56–20:00 · 7 races

Stratford

17:35–20:06 · 6 races

Newcastle (AW)

18:19–20:54 · 6 races

Recently viewed

Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
True Promise silks
True Promise
Age 5 · 10-1
220159
81
52
83
5
10-1
14/1 11/1 9/1
A winner three starts back gives True Promise something to cling to, though ninth last time out is a concern; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 141 lb from stall four, and his rating of 83 suggests he holds a slim edge on official figures.
AI verdict

SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

2
Star Material silks
Star Material
Age 3 · 10-0
0-983R
82
63
91
3
10-0
12/1 7/1 11/1
Third two starts back shows he retains some ability, and with 22 days between runs Star Material arrives here reasonably fresh; winless in recent starts, and that refusal last time demands respect, though his rating of 91 has him narrowly top-rated here.
AI verdict

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

3
Changeofmind silks
Changeofmind
Age 6 · 9-13
-01876
79
51
80
6
9-13
22/1 12/1 18/1
Changeofmind showed he can win when landing a victory four starts back, but sixth, seventh and eighth-place finishes since tell a more sobering story; he has run over today's trip and returns from a 41-day break carrying 139 lb from stall five.
AI verdict

SR 51 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Lethal Nymph silks
Lethal Nymph
Age 7 · 9-13
048528
79
82
87
7
9-13
7/2 9/2 7/2
Lethal Nymph is ranked second of the thirteen runners on our figures, with a speed rating of 88 that marks him out as a genuine threat at the weights, and he has experience of today's trip and going; the risk is that he is winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Duran silks
Duran
Age 5 · 9-12
20-500
78
64
84
5
9-12
12/1 FCST 10/1
Duran has run over today's trip and his rating of 84 puts him firmly in contention as a leading threat, yet winless in his last five starts and returning after 68 days off, the fitness question is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

6
Smart Vision silks
Smart Vision
Age 5 · 9-11
098994
77
76
82
5
9-11
6/1 13/2 5/1
Winless in his last six starts, Smart Vision at least returns on a workable 28-day break with experience of today's distance and going in his favour, though a fourth last time out represents his best recent effort and the 137 lb burden from stall seven will need managing.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Copper Knight silks
Copper Knight
Age 12 · 9-11
210690
77
64
84
12
9-11
25/1 7/1 20/1
Copper Knight has distance and going experience to call on, and our rating of 84 suggests he holds solid claims against this field; the concern is a recent sequence of four starts without a win, making his current form the key question.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

8
Azuinthejungle silks
Azuinthejungle
Age 4 · 9-10
732111
76
78
71
4
9-10
17/2 4/1 7/1
Ranked 11 of 13 on our figures and carrying a hefty 136 lb from stall 9, Azuinthejungle is hard to fancy on ratings, yet his recent form is genuinely eye-catching — three wins in his last six starts, including back-to-back victories, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Little Mi Mi silks
Little Mi Mi
Age 5 · 9-10
210411
76
78
69
5
9-10
9/2 7/2 4/1
Ranked a clear last but one on our figures and carrying a hefty 136 lb, Little Mi Mi faces a stiff ask, though her recent form is genuinely eye-catching — a winner two starts back and again last time out, with three wins in her last six starts suggesting she arrives in decent heart.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Buzz Box silks
Buzz Box
Age 5 · 9-9
11-497
75
75
81
5
9-9
13/2 8/1 6/1
Buzz Box showed his best when winning back-to-back four and five starts back, but a seventh last time out and ninth two starts back temper expectations; he has run over today's trip and going, and 135 lb is no light burden, though 21 days gives him a fair prep.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Castan silks
Castan
Age 6 · 9-8
140963
74
69
78
6
9-8
7/1 15/2 13/2
Third last time out shows Castan is in decent nick, though a sixth two starts back and a ninth three starts back highlight his inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 134 lb from stall 10, and a rating of 78 suggests he is capable on his day.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Ice Cold Alex silks
Ice Cold Alex
Age 3 · 9-2
44-646
70
46
76
3
9-2
33/1 14/1 28/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked tenth of thirteen on our figures, Ice Cold Alex makes this a tough pitch; 79 days off the track adds a fitness query, though he has run over today's trip and going before and a career-high weight of 128 lb from stall 13 does him no favours.
AI verdict

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

13
Too Much silks
Too Much
Age 6 · 8-10
3-0671
62
50
68
6
8-10
40/1 7/1 35/1
Ranked last on our figures and officially rated just 62, Too Much is hard to fancy on these terms, though she does arrive on the back of a win last time out and has experience of today's distance and going.
AI verdict

SR 50 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 True Promise 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 Bet365
2 Star Material 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 10.00 14/1 Paddy Power
3 Changeofmind 22/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 13.00 18/1 18/1 22/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 19.00 22/1 Bet365
4 Lethal Nymph 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 7/2 open 5.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 Coral
5 Duran 12/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 13.00 12/1 Bet365
6 Smart Vision 6/1 open 11.00 5/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 8.50 11/2 open 7.50 6/1 Bet365
7 Copper Knight 25/1 open 8.00 20/1 open 11.00 25/1 open 9.00 25/1 open 9.00 22/1 open 11.00 22/1 open 10.00 25/1 Bet365
8 Azuinthejungle 17/2 open 5.00 8/1 open 7.50 7/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 9/1 open 7.00 8/1 open 6.50 9/1 William Hill
9 Little Mi Mi 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 Bet365
10 Buzz Box 13/2 open 26.00 13/2 open 12.00 6/1 open 17.00 6/1 open 17.00 6/1 open 10.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 Bet365
11 Castan 7/1 open 8.50 13/2 open 9.00 7/1 open 8.50 7/1 open 8.50 15/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 10.00 15/2 William Hill
12 Ice Cold Alex 33/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 17.00 33/1 Bet365
13 Too Much 40/1 open 8.00 35/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 10.00 40/1 open 10.00 40/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 12.00 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Little Mi Mi

Speculative

Little Mi Mi owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (43) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Iain Jardine Jack Nicholls(3)
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Lethal Nymph

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · Paul Midgley
✓ Value Signal

Copper Knight

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 9. Little Mi Mi
52.8 9/2
2 4. Lethal Nymph
52.4 7/2
3 11. Castan
50.4 7/1
4 6. Smart Vision
49.9 6/1
5 8. Azuinthejungle
48.4 17/2
YOUR DECISION

See your angle before you make your move

Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

🐾 Your pick
No horse picked yet
Voting open now

Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.

Choose your horse →
🤖 AI view
Lethal Nymph
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 7 · 9-13
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 5 · 9-10
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 5 · 9-11
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 5 · 9-9
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 6 · 9-8
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 4 · 9-10
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 3 · 10-0
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

5
Age 5 · 9-12
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

1
Age 5 · 10-1
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 52 🐾

SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lethal Nymph
Confidence: Speculative

Lethal Nymph (SR 82, 4/1, 9-13) is the clear SR leader in this field by a meaningful margin over the next-best group (SR 78), and has tightened 23% in the market — the most significant inward move among the top contenders. Running off a mark just 1lb below last win (MarkMv:-1), she has course form (W1P3 at Newcastle AW) and moderate distance and going fit (DistFit:~, GoingFit:~) which is sufficient at this class level. Paul Midgley's 10% strike rate is modest but the market move is doing real work here, and David Nolan is a capable operator at this track. The weight of 9-13 is manageable given she carries the highest SR in the field. Each-way alternative: Little Mi Mi. Main danger: Little Mi Mi — Little Mi Mi (SR 78, 4/1) matches Lethal Nymph on SR, carries 3lb less (9-10), has confirmed distance fitness (DistFit:+), course form (W1P1 at Newcastle), and a recent form string of 210411 showing genuine consistency — the class rise (↑1) and a 6lb higher mark than last win are the only concerns.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Recent form reads 048528 — the digit sequence shows no win in last 6 starts and a last-place finish (8) two runs ago; she has not won since a mark of 83 yet current mark is 82, suggesting she's been…
  • Little Mi Mi (SR:78, 4/1) matches her on odds, has won 2 of last 4 including back-to-back wins (Form:210411), carries 3lb less, and is +6 on the handicapper's assessment — a horse in sharper winning…
  • Azuinthejungle (SR:78) has won 3 of last 4 runs (Form:732111) and is racing off a mark 9lb lower than Lethal Nymph (MarkMv:+9 vs -1), suggesting the handicapper views that rival as significantly more…
  • Paul Midgley's 10% strike rate across 452 runners is a thin platform; David Nolan also sits at 10% from 724 mounts — the combination of a modest trainer-jockey pairing at this track undermines confid…
Shortlist Lethal Nymph, Little Mi Mi, Smart Vision, Azuinthejungle
Each-way: Little Mi Mi Danger: Little Mi Mi

🗺 The Course Class 4

0m5f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade