EBF And Charlie Longsdon Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB Race) · 2m70y
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 136 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 145 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 142 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 123 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 161 and market confidence at 15/8 make this the class act.
SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 123 suggests ability but 250/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 124 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Red Metal | 6/4 open 3.50 | 13/8 | 13/8 open 3.00 | 13/8 open 3.00 | 13/8 open 3.00 | 13/8 open 3.00 | 13/8 Paddy Power |
| 2 Brecharnon | 7/2 open 3.25 | 3/1 open 2.88 | 7/2 open 3.00 | 7/2 open 3.00 | 10/3 open 3.00 | 10/3 open 3.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Killarney | 25/1 open 11.00 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 open 15.00 | 20/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Mr Maximillian | 14/1 open 19.00 | 12/1 open 19.00 | 10/1 open 19.00 | 10/1 open 19.00 | 10/1 open 19.00 | 11/1 open 19.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Posh Dude | 14/1 open 10.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 14/1 open 13.00 | 14/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 Coral |
| 6 River Don | 125/1 open 34.00 | 100/1 | 100/1 open 51.00 | 100/1 open 51.00 | 100/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 125/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Smile John Boy | 13/8 open 2.88 | 7/4 open 2.88 | 13/8 open 2.88 | 13/8 open 2.88 | 7/4 open 2.88 | 6/4 open 2.88 | 7/4 Paddy Power |
| 8 Whiteoak Duffy | 200/1 open 151.00 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 150/1 open 201.00 | 200/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Jersey Tex | 200/1 open 151.00 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 150/1 open 201.00 | 200/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Unbelievable Jeff | 50/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 open 29.00 | 40/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Red Metal owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (89) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 161 and market confidence at 15/8 make this the class act.
Favourable weight of 11-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 145 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 142 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Smile John Boy (SR:161, 15/8) is the joint-highest-rated horse in the field and carries 11-0 versus Red Metal's 11-5 — a clear 5lb weight advantage against the only rival matching his ability. He drops three class tiers (ClassMv:↓3), making this race significantly easier than his recent assignments, and Ben Pauling's 16% strike rate with Kielan Woods (15%) is a reliable combination. The 201-day absence is a flag, but the dramatic class drop and weight edge tip the balance; the market's 15/8 implies confidence that connections have him ready. Red Metal (the market second at 2/1) is proven at this course (Course:W1P2) and is the chief danger, but the 5lb penalty at 11-5 in soft ground is a real burden, and GoingFit:? means he has no confirmed credentials on soft, dulling the appeal of his course record. Each-way alternative: Red Metal. Main danger: Red Metal — Red Metal (SR:161, 2/1) matches Smile John Boy on ability, has a winning course record (Course:W1P2) at Stratford, and was in action just 24 days ago suggesting peak fitness — the 5lb weight concession in soft ground is the only concrete reason to side against him.