Burdett Estate has slipped since a win five starts back, with a ninth and a seventh before an unplaced run last time, and our figures rank him 11th of 13. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip, and a 38-day break gives him a fresh look from stall 13.
Form last 61-3790
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR67RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Born Slippy tops our ratings at 82 and has run over today's trip, but he's been winless in his last five, with a third four starts back the best of it. The main risk is a seventh last time out and a 51-day break.
Form last 6038-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR82RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Won last time out and only ten days ago, so she arrives fit, with a second and a second also in her last six runs, and she has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 136 lb from stall three, she's ranked seventh of 13 by our rating of 73, which suggests a solid but unspectacular chance.
Form last 6352261
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR73RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Maharajas Express has won twice in his last six, including two starts back, and has run over today's trip and going, but he was eighth last time out, 30 days ago, and the yard is cold at 1/23 in the last fortnight. Our rating of 75 ranks him fifth of 13 under 135 lb from stall seven.
Form last 6182218
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR75RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Nogo's Dream was second last time out and has been in the frame in two of his last six, having also finished a second four starts back, while he has run over today's trip and going before. Fresh after 31 days, he is yet to win but our figures rate him second of 13.
Form last 6642642
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR82RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mumayaz arrives a last-time-out winner and has run over today's trip, while our rating of 76 ranks him fourth of 13, so he looks a leading threat from stall six. The one concern is a stable cold at 1 from 35 over the last 14 days, with 132 lb to carry.
Form last 6356751
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR76RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Perfect Location showed she can win with a victory four starts back, and she's had a fairly fresh 22 days since her last run, having run over today's trip before. Our rating of 77 sits well above her official 70, though a sixth and a fifth since that win, then an unplaced last time, is the worry.
Form last 6781560
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Musical Soldier arrives in cracking recent form, second last time out and second two starts back after three straight wins before that, and he has run over today's trip. Against that, 50 days off and a yard cold at 1/24 temper the case, while carrying 131 lb from draw 11.
Form last 6211122
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR68RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kiss And Run has finished sixth, seventh and sixth in her last three, though she did win four starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Fresh enough after 21 days, but she carries 130 lb from stall 10, and our rating of 73 ranks her sixth of 13.
Form last 6531676
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR73RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Gelato has finished fifth in both her last two outings, and a break of 55 days raises fitness questions, so she is hard to fancy; on the plus side, she won three starts back and has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating ranks her tenth of 13.
Form last 69-6155
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR67RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Punchbowl Flyer has finished fifth, fourth, seventh and sixth in his last four runs since winning twice earlier in the sequence, so the trend is going the wrong way. He has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him 12th of 13 from stall 12.
Form last 6116745
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR65RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Thunderous Love is yet to win in her last six, though a fifth last time out, nine days ago, follows two seconds five and six starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going. Eighth of 13 on our rating, she carries 124 lb from stall four.
Form last 6229485
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR69RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pedros Dream filled the runner-up spot twice in a row, a second last time out and another two starts back, yet he is yet to win in his last five and our figures rank him 13th of 13. A yard struggling at 1/35 and a 21-day break do little to help his cause, though he has run over today's trip.
Form last 649-522
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
70SR59RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Pedros Dream owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Tony CarrollDavid Probert
76%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Kiss And Run
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Rachel Cook & John Bridger✓ Value Signal
Perfect Location
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Tom Ward◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Burdett Estate (SR:62, 10/1) has steamed in 43% in the market — the most dramatic move in the field — which is a significant signal in a 13-runner Class 5 handicap where market intelligence matters. It drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), carries a manageable 9-11, and has proven form at this trip (DistFit:+), the only runner with a confirmed plus rating at 5f160y. The form string shows a recent '1' (rightmost) meaning it won last time out, giving it live confidence heading into today. Brian Toomey (12%) and Jack Callan (14%) are modest but competent connections, and the class drop combined with that market move makes this a compelling case.
Each-way alternative: Kiss And Run.
Main danger: Kiss And Run — Kiss And Run (SR:73, 5/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries only 9-4, has confirmed GoingFit:+ on heavy ground, is a course specialist (W1P6 at Bath), and has had modest but real market support (Mkt:in9%) — the combination of top SR, proven going, and course form makes it the most likely alternative winner.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string '1-3790' shows the recent win is bookended by a lengthy gap (the '-') and prior finishes of 7th, 9th, 0 — the form before the last win was poor, raising questions about consistency at thi…
SR:62 is the second-lowest rating in the top half of the field; Over Spiced (71), Kiss And Run (73), Pedros Dream (70) and Nogo's Dream (69) all carry superior speed ratings into this race.
38 days since last run — not a major concern alone, but combined with a modest trainer strike rate of 12% and jockey at 14%, connections offer limited confidence in placing horses fresh off a break.
Market move of in43% is dramatic but Thunderous Love (in35%, 9 days since last run, very fresh) and Pedros Dream (in16%, 11/4 favourite with top connections) both suggest the market's primary money i…
ShortlistBurdett Estate, Kiss And Run, Over Spiced