Southwell (AW) 18:00 29 Oct 2026
Class 6 29 Oct 2026

Today AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)

AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 7f15y

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  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Edmond Halley Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 11 hours, 26 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Edmond Halley silks
Edmond Halley
Age 4 · 9-13
335331
54
64
61
4
9-13
★★★☆☆
—
15/8 3/1 31/19
Won last time out and was placed in four of his previous five, so Edmond Halley arrives in cracking form, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Only five days since that success and 139 lb on his back is the main risk, with our rating of 61 ranking him top of 13.
AI verdict

SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Ramon di Loria silks
Ramon di Loria
Age 8 · 9-9
633268
55
32
59
8
9-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 20/1 28/1
Ramon di Loria brings solid placed form, with a second three starts back and thirds four and five runs ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 59 ranks him second of 13. The risk is a fading profile, with a sixth then an eighth last time out, though he's fit after 17 days off.
AI verdict

SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

3
Jenni silks
Jenni
Age 5 · 9-8
904658
54
28
56
5
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
28/1 16/1 25/1
Winless in her last six, Jenni was eighth last time out and a fifth two starts back, though she has run over today's trip and going before and our rating of 56 ranks her fifth of 13. Her 45-day break and 134 lb from stall 12 leave questions to answer.
AI verdict

SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

4
Crystal Dagger silks
Crystal Dagger
Age 4 · 9-8
684880
54
29
56
4
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
80/1 33/1 50/1
Crystal Dagger is yet to win in her last six, with a fourth four starts back her best finish, though she has run over today's trip and going and returns after 28 days off. Carrying 134 lb from stall five, she looks a midfield type, rated 56 by us.
AI verdict

SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

5
Homme de Fer silks
Homme de Fer
Age 5 · 9-6
335544
52
54
53
5
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
11/2 13/2 9/2
Homme de Fer is consistent without cracking it, finishing fourth in his last two outings and third six starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. Yet to win in his last six, he's burdened by 132 lb from stall 8, and the yard's 1/35 form is a worry.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Keep Me Stable silks
Keep Me Stable
Age 6 · 9-5
377063
51
34
52
6
9-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 17/2 18/1
Winless in her last six, Keep Me Stable did at least finish third last time out, 17 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going before. Still, a string of sevenths and a sixth, plus 131 lb from stall 1, makes her hard to fancy, ranked 10 of 13 on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

7
Miss Willows silks
Miss Willows
Age 7 · 9-5
284070
51
28
55
7
9-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 33/1 40/1
Miss Willows is winless in her last six, with an unplaced effort last time and a seventh two starts back, though she has run over today's trip and going and returns after just 13 days. Carrying 131 lb from stall six, she sits seventh of 13 on our rating of 55, a few pounds above her official 51.
AI verdict

SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

8
Distillate silks
Distillate
Age 6 · 9-4
038811
50
46
59
6
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
5/4 4/5 5/4
Distillate arrives in cracking nick, having won last time out and again two starts back, and she's only 10 days off the last run. She has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 59 backs the pick, though a pair of eighths earlier in the sequence temper things slightly.
AI verdict

SR 46 suggests ability but evn reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Al Suil Eile silks
Al Suil Eile
Age 10 · 9-4
0-6450
50
55
53
10
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 10/1 12/1
Al Suil Eile is yet to win in his last five, with a fifth two starts back and a fourth three starts back his best efforts, and he was unplaced last time just five days ago. He has run over today's trip and going, but 130 lb from draw 7 is a stiff ask.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Brother Dave silks
Brother Dave
Age 6 · 9-1
243369
47
30
50
6
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 18/1 28/1
Brother Dave is hard to fancy after a ninth last time out and a sixth two starts back, with 184 days off the track and no win in his last six outings. In his favour, he has run over today's trip and going, and he was third three starts back, from draw 2.
AI verdict

SR 30 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Sovereign Class silks
Sovereign Class
Age 4 · 9-0
-36006
46
29
50
4
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
28/1 33/1 25/1
Winless in her last five, Sovereign Class was sixth last time out 38 days ago and unplaced in the two runs before, so she is hard to fancy. A third five starts back and experience of today's trip and going are the best points, while our rating of 50 ranks her twelfth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

12
Joshuas Dream silks
Joshuas Dream
Age 4 · 9-0
8-0909
46
21
41
4
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
28/1 33/1 22/1
Joshuas Dream is winless in his last five, finishing a ninth last time out and no better than eighth in that spell, and he returns after 66 days off. He has run over today's trip and going, but carrying 126 lb from draw 10, he is hard to fancy as our 13th-ranked runner of 13.
AI verdict

SR 21 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

13
Mister Sky Blue silks
Mister Sky Blue
Age 4 · 9-0
434444
45
34
57
4
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 8/1 16/1
Mister Sky Blue is admirably consistent, finishing fourth in each of his last four outings and third five starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 57 against an official 45 makes him a leading threat, though he is yet to win in recent starts, and that is the main risk.
AI verdict

SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Edmond Halley 15/8 open 6.00 13/8 open 4.00 15/8 open 4.50 15/8 open 4.50 15/8 open 4.50 15/8 open 5.00 15/8 Bet365
2 Ramon di Loria 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 28/1 33/1 Bet365
3 Jenni 28/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 19.00 28/1 Bet365
4 Crystal Dagger 80/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 41.00 80/1 Bet365
5 Homme de Fer 11/2 open 8.00 9/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 open 8.00 11/2 Bet365
6 Keep Me Stable 22/1 open 11.00 18/1 open 9.50 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 18/1 open 11.00 22/1 Bet365
7 Miss Willows 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 40/1 50/1 Bet365
8 Distillate 5/4 open 1.80 5/4 open 2.10 11/8 open 1.91 11/8 open 1.91 11/8 open 2.00 5/4 open 1.80 11/8 Coral
9 Al Suil Eile 14/1 open 29.00 14/1 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 12/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 Coral
10 Brother Dave 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 26.00 33/1 Bet365
11 Sovereign Class 28/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 28/1 Bet365
12 Joshuas Dream 28/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 41.00 28/1 Bet365
13 Mister Sky Blue 20/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 9.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 18/1 open 10.00 20/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Edmond Halley

Speculative

Edmond Halley owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (36) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

15/8 Edward Bethell Ryan Sexton
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Distillate

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/4 · Adrian McGuinness
✓ Value Signal

Sovereign Class

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · Grant Tuer
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.1 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
30 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.0 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Edmond Halley
47.8 15/8
2 8. Distillate
45.9 5/4
3 5. Homme de Fer
43.3 11/2
4 9. Al Suil Eile
38.5 14/1
5 11. Sovereign Class
32.9 28/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Edmond Halley
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 6 · 9-4
5/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 46 🐾 —

SR 46 suggests ability but evn reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 9-13
15/8
★★★☆☆ SR 64 🐾 —

SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 5 · 9-6
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 10 · 9-4
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Age 4 · 9-0
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 34 🐾 —

SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Edmond Halley
Confidence: Speculative

Edmond Halley (SR:64, 10/3) is the clear class leader in this field by a significant margin — the next-best SR is 55 (Al Suil Eile) and 54 (Homme de Fer), but Edmond Halley's SR of 64 is comfortably superior. The 12% market move in (Mkt:in12%) confirms money is arriving, and Edward Bethell's 17% strike rate is the strongest trainer figure in the field. The recent form 335331 shows a win last time out and consistent competitiveness, while GoingFit:+ confirms he handles this going bucket, and Course:W1P1 adds a Southwell course winner stamp at 7f. Carrying 9-13 as top-weight is a minor concern in a Class 6 sprint, but the SR advantage of 9+ points over the nearest rivals makes this manageable. Each-way alternative: Distillate. Main danger: Distillate — Distillate (SR:46, evens) is the market favourite with Course:W2P2 and a recent 038811 form string showing two consecutive wins, and although GoingFit:- is a concern and the 5% drift is a mild negative signal, the course specialist record and back-to-back winning form make it the most likely danger to the selection.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Carrying 9-13 as top-weight in a Class 6 AW sprint at Southwell — concedes 9lb to Distillate (evens, SR:46, Course:W2P2) who is the market favourite and is shorter in the market despite lower SR.
  • Distillate drifted only 5% out and is at evens — the market as a whole is NOT endorsing Edmond Halley as favourite despite the 12% in-move, suggesting the money flow may be insufficient to overcome t…
  • Only 5 days since last run (Days:5) — a very quick turnaround following a win last time out; fitness risk of a horse being asked to back up so sharply, especially top-weighted.
  • Jockey Ryan Sexton has only a 12% strike rate from 769 rides — weaker than Clifford Lee (17%) on Homme de Fer and Robert Havlin (15%) on Al Suil Eile, both dangers with superior jockey form today.
Shortlist Edmond Halley, Al Suil Eile, Homme de Fer, Distillate
Each-way: Distillate Danger: Distillate

🗺 The Course Class 6

7f15y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 6 Race grade