Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Passage Guenot owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (85) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Philip Hobbs & Johnson WhiteHarry Cobden
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Kimai
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Tom Ellis✓ Value Signal
Tottie's Moon
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Mickey Bowen◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Passage Guenot (SR:153, 5/2) combines the second-highest SR in the field with the strongest connections available — Philip Hobbs & Johnson White at 18% strike rate paired with Harry Cobden at 22% from 907 career rides, a pairing that commands respect. The market has nudged in 6% which is modest but directionally positive, and the weight (11-3) is competitive. The key opposition is Kimai (SR:158, 10/3) who holds a raw SR edge but has drifted 13% from opening, a meaningful signal of market discomfort, and carries the same unproven distance and going profile. Elusive Pb (SR:150, 6/1) drifted 13% and wears a hat for the first time — unexplained headgear debut on a horse already drifting is a compound negative. Passage Guenot's SR, elite jockey booking, and stable confidence make it the clearest positive-signal package in this field.
Each-way alternative: Kimai.
Main danger: Kimai — Kimai holds the highest SR in the field at 158 and carries a favourable weight of 10-11, meaning if the drift reflects nothing more than a quiet stable day rather than a genuine concern, the raw ability edge could prove decisive.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Passage Guenot's form reads '2-' — just one recorded run resulting in a second, with a subsequent absence. Extremely thin profile offers almost no evidence of ability at this level or trip.
At 4yo against 5yo rivals with more jumps experience, Passage Guenot is the youngest in the field and may lack the physical and technical maturity to dominate on just a second career start over obsta…
A market move of only 6% in Cobden's booking is underwhelming for a horse with elite connections — stable confidence signals are muted at best, not the strong drift-in that would validate favourite s…
Kimai (SR:158) holds a superior SR, carries 6lb less weight at 10-11, and any market drift could reflect ante-post positioning rather than genuine discomfort — the weight advantage is a concrete race…