Sycamore Gap won last time out and again five starts back, and he's turned out quickly just seven days later, with experience of both today's trip and going; our rating of 63 ranks him third of twelve. The risk is a 139 lb burden after a ninth and an eighth in the middle of his recent form.
Form last 61/5891
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
62SR63RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Charlie Darling won twice, four and five starts back, but he has tailed off since, with an eighth two starts back and an unplaced run last time out. Fresh enough after 13 days and with experience of today's trip and going, he carries 138 lb off a mark of 60, and our rating of 60 puts him eighth of 12.
Form last 6311680
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR61RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Fleur de Mer arrives fresh from a win last time out just 12 days ago, and she has run over today's trip and on this going before. Carrying 138 lb off an official mark of 60, she looks the one to beat, with our top rating of 67 backing that up, though a seventh two starts back shows she can have off days.
Form last 6432571
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
64SR67RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Sevenkingsmustdie won last time out and was third two starts back, so he arrives in good heart after 30 days off, and he has run on today's going before. Carrying 137 lb off an official mark of 59, the main risk is that a rise for that win stretches him.
Form last 605731
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR64RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Edwardtheninth is hard to fancy after an eighth last time out, 21 days ago, and he sits 11th of 12 on our figures at 57, but he is a winner two starts back and four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6451318
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR57RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Revelio has finished fourth last time out, and a fifth two starts back, so he is consistent but yet to win in his last six, with a second five runs ago his best effort. He has run on today's going and returns after 23 days, though 136 lb looks a burden off an official 58.
Form last 6025454
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR62RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fram Castle has been consistent, a fourth last time out, and a second two starts back, with a win four starts back, and he's fit after just seven days off, having run over today's trip and going. However, 136 lb is a stiff burden off an official mark of 58, and our rating of 63 only ranks him fifth of twelve.
Form last 6231V24
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR63RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Smokey Malone has won three of his last six and was second last time out, but he's now had a fourth and a fifth since those wins, and a 141-day absence raises fitness questions. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 62 ranks him seventh of twelve under 136 lb.
Form last 6111542
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
45SR62RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Crystal Jet is winless in her last three, finishing unplaced last time out, then a sixth two starts back and an eighth three starts back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, but 136 lb and a ranking of tenth of twelve on our figures leave plenty to do.
Form last 6860
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR58RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Bulldog Spirit has been consistent without a win, finishing fourth two starts back and third five starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 63 sits well above his official 55, though 40 days off and a sixth last time out are the concern.
Form last 6534546
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR63RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Beaune is winless in his last six, though he was second last time out and has been placed in a couple of the runs before that, so he is not without a run. Ranked ninth of twelve on our figures and carrying 132 lb, he is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip and going before after 23 days off.
Form last 6434302
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
52SR59RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six, Togeather Forever has been beaten in every run, though back-to-back fourths show some consistency and he's fresh enough after 13 days. He has run over today's trip and going, but ranking 12th of 12 on our figures makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 6650844
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR52RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Sevenkingsmustdie owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2Alan KingSean Levey
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Fram Castle
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Michael Wigham✓ Value Signal
Charlie Darling
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Alan Brown◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Sevenkingsmustdie (SR 69, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and arrives on the back of a win (form rightmost digit: 1), running off a mark only 2lb higher than that last victory. The 14% market move inward is the strongest steaming signal in the race and Alan King (16% strike rate, 1,271 runners) with Sean Levey (13%) is a powerful booking. At 9-11 he's lightly weighted compared to the top-weights, and while GoingFit:~ on AW good is a mild query, nothing in the data suggests the ground will stop him. Fram Castle (SR 74) has the superior SR but carries GoingFit:- on today's surface, is running off a mark 6lb higher than his last win, and his form string includes a void (V) run — the 44% drift inward on him is market-driven enthusiasm I'm not fully convinced by given those negatives.
Each-way alternative: Sycamore Gap.
Main danger: Fram Castle — Fram Castle carries the highest SR in the field (74), is proven at the trip (DistFit:+), has steamed 44% in the market, and despite the GoingFit:- flag the AW surface at Southwell can minimise ground concerns.
⚖Case against4▾
GoingFit:h (handicap/headgear flag) on an AW good surface is a mild unknown, and with only a '~' fit rating the horse's suitability to today's Southwell Fibresand conditions is not confirmed.
Form string 05731 shows inconsistency — the 0 and 5 finishes suggest vulnerability when conditions or competition don't suit, and a 30-day absence adds a fitness query.
Running off a mark 2lb higher than last win in a 12-runner handicap, Fram Castle (SR 74) is still the highest-rated horse despite going concerns and represents a legitimate threat at 4/1 with a fresh…
Sean Levey's 13% strike rate is modest for a horse at 11/4, and the 14% market move — while notable — is less dramatic than Fram Castle's 44% drift in, suggesting the market is not overwhelmingly con…
ShortlistSevenkingsmustdie, Fram Castle, Sycamore Gap, Fleur de Mer