Sea The Light arrives a last-time-out winner after just ten days, which is a positive, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Against that, his previous four runs were a seventh, an unplaced effort, another seventh and a sixth, and he carries 144 lb from draw 13.
Form last 66-7071
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR72RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
A leading danger, this gelding won two starts back and has finished in the first four in three of the other recent runs, with a third and a second among them, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 76 sits above his official 70, but the main risk is a disappointing ninth last time out and a 56-day break.
Form last 6524319
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR76RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Regalian tops our ratings at 78 against an official mark of 69, and he's back after 17 days having run over today's trip and going before, so the speed figure of 79 makes him a threat. The risk is a poor run of form: he's yet to win and finished ninth last time out.
Form last 6888689
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR78RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pappa Louis has finished second in each of his last three starts, which makes him our pick on profile, and he has run over today's trip before; a 419-day absence is the one reservation, though he is rated 75 on our figures and drawn two.
Form last 665222-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR75RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
West Tyrone has been out of the first three in his last two runs, unplaced last time and a seventh two starts back, though he did win three starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 137 lb from draw 7, he looks hard to fancy, with our rating of 66 ranking him 11th of 13.
Form last 6803170
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR66RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Light Speed has run over today's trip and going, and is back quickly after 14 days; our 77 rating ranks him second of 13, with a speed figure of 80 standing out against an official mark of 67. The risk is a winless run in his last five, with a fourth three starts back his best finish.
Form last 6894-60
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR77RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Harlington was second last time out and fresh enough after 20 days, having run over today's trip and going before, but a fifth and an eighth in the two runs before that, plus 137 lb from stall five, temper the appeal. Our rating of 71 ranks him seventh of 13.
Form last 6133852
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR71RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Meet Me In Meraki won back-to-back two and three starts back, but he was only seventh last time out, so the form has cooled. He has run over today's trip and going and returns after 20 days, though 136 lb from draw 11 is a stiff ask for a ninth-ranked runner on our ratings.
Form last 6252117
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR67RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Chambers was fourth last time out and a winner two starts back, but he has been off 90 days and the rest of his recent form (seventh, fifth, fourth) is modest. He has run over today's trip and going, though our figures rank him 12th of 13, and 134 lb is a lot to carry.
Form last 6457-14
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR66RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mr Moonshine has slipped to a sixth last time out after a fourth two starts back, though he won four starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Only 13 days since his last run, he carries 133 lb from stall 8, and our rating of 72 ranks him fifth of 13.
Form last 6331046
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR72RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
King Chaos won four starts back but has since faded, finishing a seventh, then an eighth, before going unplaced last time, and he returns after 80 days off. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 68 ranks him eighth of 13, though 132 lb from stall 6 is a stiff ask.
Form last 64-1780
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR69RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Silky Lass is hard to fancy after a ninth last time out, an eighth and another ninth before that, though she was second four starts back and has run over today's trip and going. She's yet to win in her last six, and our figures rank her tenth of 13.
Form last 6332989
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR67RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Cobalt Comet bounced back with a second last time out, but three sevenths before that and a lone win five starts back make him hard to fancy, and our figures rank him last of 13. He has run on today's going and returns after 31 days, with 126 lb from stall 12.
Form last 6517772
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR61RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Mr Moonshine owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (43) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Richard & Peter FaheyOisin McSweeney
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
I'd Go Maniac
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Alan King✓ Value Signal
Silky Lass
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Joey Ramsden◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Mr Moonshine (SR:77, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries just 9-7 — a significant weight advantage over top-weight Sea The Light (SR:69, 10-4) and second-weight I'd Go Maniac (SR:75, 10-0). He is proven at both the trip (DistFit:+) and on this going (GoingFit:+), and holds a course win (Course:W1P1) at Southwell. The market has moved aggressively in his favour (Mkt:in45%), making him a joint-shortest price despite the lightest competitive weight in the field — the money has a clear reason. His form of 331046 shows a recent below-par run but the combination of SR leadership, weight, course-and-distance fitness, and strong market support outweighs that blip.
Each-way alternative: Harlington.
Main danger: Harlington — Harlington (SR:72, 7/2) is co-favourite, proven at this trip (DistFit:+), has been backed 22% into the market, holds a course place, and is off a mark 2lb lower than his last win (MarkMv:-2) — everything points to a horse ready to go close.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form figure '6' most recently (last 13 days ago) suggests a poor run at very short notice before today — back-to-back poor efforts a real risk at Southwell tonight.
Jockey Oisin McSweeney has a 10% strike rate from 650 rides — below the field average, and no noted previous association with this horse to inspire confidence.
Harlington (SR:72, 7/2) is joint-favourite, carries just 9-11, has a very consistent recent form of 133852, and is trained by Charlie Clover whose 21% strike rate is the standout trainer stat in the…
As a 3yo taking on older, more exposed rivals at Southwell on the all-weather, the age/experience differential may be exposed in a competitive 13-runner handicap.
ShortlistMr Moonshine, I'd Go Maniac, Harlington, Cobalt Comet