B U Train is unraced on our figures, so she arrives a blank canvas and plenty remains open to improvement. She carries 165 lb on debut, and with nothing to go on yet she is best judged on what she shows here.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
86SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Back In Favour is a leading danger, having made the frame in two of her last three starts, a third two starts back and another three starts back, after winning five starts back, and she's fit after just 12 days off. The main risk is an unplaced run last time out, while 165 lb is a hefty burden.
Form last 61-8330
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR92RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lightly raced and unexposed, Better Be Elusive was unplaced on her only recent start and returns after 316 days off, so fitness is the question. Winless in that sole run, she carries 165 lb and may have more to offer.
Form last 60-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Certavi Et Vici arrives fit enough after a third last time out 30 days ago, and she is yet to win in her last start but ranks second of 11 on our rating, making her a leading threat. The main risk is the 165 lb she must carry.
Form last 63
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR93RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Payslip has finished second in each of her last three starts, a consistent run that makes her the one to beat, and she tops our ratings at 101 on 165 lb. The only reservation is a 103-day layoff, though she remains yet to win in that spell.
Form last 622-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR101RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Slaney Valley is unexposed and open to improvement, with just one recent run on her card, when she was pulled up 79 days ago. She is yet to win in that sample and carries 165 lb, so she needs to bounce back from that setback.
Form last 6P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
66SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Itsasham is an unexposed filly with no recorded form to lean on, so she's one to learn about on the day, and she shoulders 164 lb. Lightly raced, she's open to improvement, though there's nothing on the page yet to prove it.
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lake Pippaway is lightly raced and yet to win, but she showed more in a sixth two starts back before a seventh last time out, and a 48-day break could help her. Carrying 164 lb, she remains unexposed and open to improvement.
Form last 6PU-67
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
69SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Fifth on her only recent start and she has had a long break, but she has run on today's going before and our rating of 88 ranks her fourth of 11, which makes her a leading danger. The main risk is fitness, with 295 days since her last run and 164 lb to carry.
Form last 65-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR88RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Morning Rose is unraced, so she's a blank canvas with no form to lean on and plenty of scope for improvement. She carries 164 lb on debut, and this unexposed filly will have to show what she can do.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Socrates Smiled is an unraced filly with no form to assess, so she's a pure unknown on debut. Carrying 164 lb, she's wide open to improvement and plenty remains to be learned about her.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Socrates Smiled owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (96). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/6A. SlatteryMr A P Ryan(3)
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Payslip
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/2 · Gavin Cromwell✓ Value Signal
Itsasham
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · M A Cahill◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Payslip (SR:100, 5/2) carries the highest Saturday Rating in the field and is the only runner with a meaningful form record in competitive company — three second-place finishes (Form:22-2) demonstrates consistent ability to run to a high level without winning, suggesting she is well-placed to convert in a mares' bumper of this class. Gavin Cromwell (11% strike rate across 3,242 runners) is a serious handler for this type of race, and Mr D G Lavery at 12% on 176 rides is a competent amateur. The 103-day absence is a minor concern but Cromwell routinely produces horses fit fresh. Against the two dangers — Socrates Smiled (SR:97, 11/4) and Certavi Et Vici (SR:92, 11/2) — Payslip's advantage is proven racecourse form: those three rivals are all unraced (Form:------) or have only one bumper start, making Payslip's 22-2 form line a material edge when conditions are soft and experience matters.
Each-way alternative: Certavi Et Vici.
Main danger: Socrates Smiled — Socrates Smiled (SR:97, 11/4) has the second-highest SR, carries the lightest weight in the top group (11-10), is backed (Mkt:in6%), and A. Slattery's 11% strike rate across a large sample of 1,609 runners signals a stable that knows when to send a bumper horse out ready to run.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Payslip's form reads 22-2 — three runner-up finishes with no win; she has a demonstrated pattern of finding one too good and may be a serial bridesmaid, particularly worrying at 5/2 in a field she 's…
103-day absence is non-trivial for a mare with a headgear flag (h) whose trainer strikes at only 11% — no market support (no 'in' movement shown) to suggest connections are confident she's spot-on.
Morning Rose (SR:94, 10/3) is trained by Emmet Mullins (14% strike rate, 669 runners) with Mr J L Gleeson aboard at 19% on 356 rides — a significantly stronger trainer/jockey combination than Payslip…
Socrates Smiled (SR:97, 11/4) is drifting only marginally and is trained by A. Slattery (11%, 1,609 runners) with Mr A P Ryan (14%, 269 rides) — a well-supported, well-connected debutante from a high…
ShortlistPayslip, Socrates Smiled, Certavi Et Vici, Lest Ye Forget