I Am Lorenzo has been consistent for much of his recent run, with a win four starts back and thirds two and three starts back, but he was only ninth last time out and returns after 177 days off. He has run over today's trip and going, though 166 lb is a hefty burden.
Form last 631339-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
114SR123RPR127OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 114 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Five wins in his last five starts makes Fountain House a leading threat, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. The main risk is a 176-day absence, so fitness is the question, along with a big weight of 164 lb.
Form last 611111-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
126SR125RPR125OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Miss Doyenne won two and three starts back before a fourth last time out, and she has run over today's trip, so the profile is solid. Carrying 162 lb off an official mark of 123 looks a big ask, though, and our rating of 114 ranks her only seventh of ten.
Form last 6331-14
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR114RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
The Great Nudie arrives in solid form, third last time out and third two starts back, with a winner four starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating has her top of the ten, but 194 days off and 162 lb are the main risk.
Form last 631433-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
124SR128RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 124 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Watch The Weather has hit the frame in four straight runs, finishing second last time out, then a third two starts back, a third three starts back, and a third four starts back. He has run over today's trip and going, and a 29-day break looks no concern, though he is yet to win in that spell and carries 162 lb.
Form last 6053332
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
119SR126RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 119 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Luimneach arrives in cracking form, a winner last time out, a second two starts back and a winner three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 153 lb off an official mark of 114 is a stiff ask though, and our figures rank him only eighth of ten.
Form last 6P-5121
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR111RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Choccabloc has had a rough time of it, with a fourth four starts back his best recent finish, but our rating of 124 ranks him fourth of ten and he has run over today's trip and going. The risk is obvious: he fell last time out, is winless, and returns after 198 days off carrying 151 lb.
Form last 6P4PPF-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
78SR124RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Scalpnagoon has been consistent without getting his head in front, finishing fourth last time out and a third six starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 149 lb off 110 after 31 days off, he is yet to win in his last six, and our rating of 120 only ranks him sixth of ten.
Form last 6342354
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR120RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kobalt St Georges won three of his last five, but he has slipped to a fourth and then a fifth last time out, and a 220-day layoff makes him hard to fancy under 146 lb. He has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 106 ranks him ninth of ten.
Form last 611145-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR107RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Duffys Hodey finished third last time out, and a winner two starts back, but he's had 198 days off, carries 143 lb and comes from a yard 0/23 lately. He has run over this trip and on this going, yet ranks last of ten on our figures.
Form last 627813-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR106RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Watch The Weather owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (66) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1R P CodyJack Kennedy
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
The Great Nudie
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Colin Bowe✓ Value Signal
Choccabloc
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Andrew McNamara◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Watch The Weather (SR:119, 9/2) is the standout on combined signals. Two wins and four places at Wexford (Course:W2P4) is exceptional course form on a specialist track — this horse clearly loves the venue. Running off a mark 4lb below his last win (MarkMv:-4) gives a handicap edge, the market has firmed 10% (Mkt:in10%), and Jack Kennedy at 23% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the race. GoingFit:~ shows he handles soft adequately, and DistFit:~ confirms he is not out of his depth at this trip. The form string 053332 shows consistent placing, and today's course advantage over rivals who have never won here is the decisive edge.
Each-way alternative: The Great Nudie.
Main danger: The Great Nudie — The Great Nudie (SR:124, 6/1) has steamed in 27% in the market — the strongest move in the field — carries joint-low weight at 11-8 and has the second-highest SR among the realistic contenders, which makes him the most likely improver if the market knows something today.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Watch The Weather is 10 years old and his form string 053332 shows no win in at least six runs — a horse of this age failing to convert consistent placings may lack the finishing kick to win off this…
Fountain House (SR:126, 7/2) carries a superior speed rating of 7 points higher with a form string of 11111-, representing a significant class and form threat that Watch The Weather's course form alo…
The Great Nudie has been backed in most aggressively in the field (Mkt:in27%) at 6/1 with a higher SR:124, suggesting the market sees a stronger winning case there than for Watch The Weather at 9/2 w…
GoingFit:~ is merely adequate rather than ideal, and with HG:t flagged, any deterioration in conditions at Wexford today could blunt his effectiveness on ground softer than he truly prefers.
ShortlistWatch The Weather, The Great Nudie, Fountain House, Miss Doyenne