Beau De Maine is unexposed with no recorded form to go on, so this debut is a case of seeing what he offers. He carries 157 lb, and with so little known there should be scope for improvement.
★AI Rating★★★★☆
155SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Unraced and unexposed, Clos Du Mouche makes his debut with plenty of scope for improvement, and he carries 157 lb. His yard is in good form, having taken 8 of its last 31 runners over the past fortnight.
★AI Rating★★★★☆
156SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Ezenli is an unraced gelding with no recorded form, so he is totally unexposed and open to improvement. He carries 157 lb on what is a blank slate, and there is nothing yet to judge him on.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
144SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unraced and open to any amount of improvement, Francisco Alvares makes his debut with a clean slate, carrying 157 lb. The gelding is an unexposed type, and his yard is in fine form, with 22 winners from 86 in the last 14 days.
★AI Rating★★★★☆
150SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Clos Du Mouche owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/5Olly MurphySean Bowen
74%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Francisco Alvares
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Dan Skelton✓ Value Signal
Ezenli
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
10/1 · Archie Watson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Clos Du Mouche (SR 156, 11/8) leads the field on ability and carries the strongest connections profile in this race: Olly Murphy strikes at 23% career rate from 1,844 runners — the highest trainer strike rate in this field by a clear margin — and Sean Bowen at 24% from 2,445 runners is the standout jockey booking. The market has backed this horse in by 9% since opening, confirming confidence, and at 11/8 it is the shortest price for good reason. In a five-runner newcomers' bumper where all runners show blank form and unknown trip/going profiles, connections quality and SR become the primary differentiators, and this horse wins both tests.
Each-way alternative: Beau De Maine.
Main danger: Beau De Maine — Beau De Maine (SR 155, 3/1) is the second-highest rated horse in the race, has steamed in by 23% in the market — the biggest move of any runner — and Twiston-Davies at 14% strike rate with jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell at 17% represents a yard that clearly expects to run well.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Beau De Maine has drifted only 23% in from a longer price, suggesting stronger stable confidence than the raw SR comparison implies — Twiston-Davies at 14% from 281 runners is a decent bumper yard an…
Francisco Alvares is trained by Dan Skelton (22% strike rate, 2,668 runners) — almost identical trainer quality to Olly Murphy — yet has drifted 52% out, which may reflect inside knowledge that Skelt…
Beau De Maine's SR of 155 is within one point of Clos Du Mouche's 156, meaning the primary differentiator collapses to connections quality alone — a razor-thin margin in a five-runner field of comple…
At 11/8 in a five-runner bumper of debutants, Clos Du Mouche offers poor each-way value; a single poor draw, slow away or wide trip in a small field at Market Rasen's tight track could prove costly a…
ShortlistClos Du Mouche, Beau De Maine, Francisco Alvares