Baymount arrives fresh from a win last time out, with a second and a fourth before that, and has run over today's trip and going. However, she carries a hefty 155 lb, and our figures rank her only fifth of seven, so she is hard to fancy.
Form last 6-P3421
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
96SR94RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Diamond Tipp showed her hand when a fourth last time out just 12 days ago, so she arrives fit, has run over today's trip, and sits only 1 lb above her official mark of 96 on our figures. The risk is a winless run in her last six, with sixths twice in that spell, and she carries 155 lb.
Form last 6270664
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR97RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dunsy Rock won three starts back and has run over today's trip, while her official mark of 114 and 155 lb burden look manageable for the top-rated runner on our figures. The one reservation is a 155-day absence after an unplaced effort last time out.
Form last 641-50
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
114SR115RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Lightly raced mare who won two starts back, though she was unplaced last time and has been off for 227 days. Carrying 155 lb, she looks unexposed and open to improvement if that winning effort is a guide.
Form last 6010-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
96SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Somersby Roost has run over today's trip and on the going before, and she's fresh from a run 12 days ago, with a win five starts back showing her capability. Our rating has her third of seven, but an eighth last time and two pulled-up efforts since that win are the main worry.
Form last 6-1PP08
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR103RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won last time out, but that came 162 days ago and a seventh and an unseated rider precede it, so she's hard to fancy under 153 lb off 105. She has run over today's trip, though our rating of 88 ranks her sixth of seven.
Form last 6U-71
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR88RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Miss Mini Bee has run over today's trip and going and was third two starts back, while her figures of 104 on our ratings, second of seven, make her a leading danger despite a 148 lb burden. The risk is a long 198-day absence and a pulled-up effort last time out.
Form last 69753P-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR105RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Dunsy Rock owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2Gordon ElliottJack Kennedy
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Baymount
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/4 · Anthony Mullins✓ Value Signal
Dromana Mist
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Patrick John Kiely◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Dunsy Rock (SR:114, 9/4) is comfortably the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin — 16 points above the next best — and is trained by Gordon Elliott (18% career strike rate, 4,098 runners) with Jack Kennedy aboard (23% career strike rate, 1,250 runners), the standout yard and jockey combination in the race. The form string 41-50 shows a win and a fourth from four hurdle starts, with the '0' on the final run explainable after a 155-day absence and likely needing the run. At 9/4 co-favourite, the market is correctly pricing in the class edge. The unknowns on distance and going (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?) are a moderate concern given the step up to 2m4f90y on soft, but for a 5-year-old from a yard that handles these conditions as well as any, these are manageable risks rather than disqualifying flaws.
Each-way alternative: Baymount.
Main danger: Baymount — Baymount (SR:96, 9/4) shares the market favouritism, is trained by Anthony Mullins with Danny Mullins up (11% strike rate, 1,281 runners), and the form string -P3421 shows a recent progressive sequence culminating in a win — if Dunsy Rock needs another run to fully recover from 155 days off, Baymount's momentum could tell.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
155-day absence is significant — the '0' (pulled up or fell) on latest run after a break suggests fitness may again be a concern returning from another lengthy layoff at Wexford today.
DistFit and GoingFit both unknown: no confirmed evidence Dunsy Rock stays 2m4f90y or handles soft ground, making this a speculative step up in trip on testing going.
Co-favourite Baymount (SR:96, form -P3421) is fresher at 17 days, has a recent win, and shares the 9/4 price — market is not conceding any edge to Dunsy Rock despite the SR gap.
Form string 41-50 contains only four hurdle starts with a pulled-up/last run latest; limited profile leaves meaningful doubt about reliability under pressure in a 2m4f+ soft-ground test.