Monbeg Genius brings a consistent profile, a third two starts back and a fifth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating has him second of five. The main risk is a 202-day layoff under 168 lb, which leaves fitness the big question.
Form last 6P5735-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
134SR136RPR142OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 134 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Knappers Hill is the one to beat on our numbers: he has run over today's trip and going, finished third three starts back and fourth four starts back, and his 143 rating tops this field of five. Two pulled-up runs most recently and 218 days off are the concerns, while 164 lb is a stiff burden.
Form last 6/43PP-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
130SR143RPR138OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 130 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Hard to fancy on our figures, ranked last of five and carrying 156 lb off an official rating of 130, but he's in decent nick with a second last time out, a win two starts back and just 11 days since his last run. He has also run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6-39512
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
128SR117RPR130OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 128 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Kitty's Light has run over today's trip and going and sits third of five on our figures, with a 133 against an official 127 hinting at untapped scope, while two fifths in his last two starts show him heading the right way. The risk is a 174-day absence, and he carries 153 lb.
Form last 69P85/5
★AI Rating★★★★☆
123SR133RPR127OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Grozni looks a leading threat on form, a winner two starts back before a fourth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The main risk is fitness, as he returns after 266 days off and carries 152 lb.
Form last 6/5614-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
124SR118RPR126OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 10-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Knappers Hill owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (72) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Paul NichollsFreddie Gingell
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Monbeg Genius
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill✓ Value Signal
Grozni
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
- · Sandy Thomson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Monbeg Genius (SR 134, 11/4) carries the heaviest weight at 12-0 but has the strongest SR in the field and is steaming in the market (Mkt:in11%), suggesting stable confidence from a yard (Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill, 11% strike rate) that knows this horse well. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. at 15% career strike rate is a solid booking on a horse whose recent form, while mixed (P5735-), shows competitive runs at this level. The market support is meaningful in a five-runner field — when both the connections and the money align on a Class 2 handicap chase at Aintree, that carries genuine weight. Hold Your Fort (SR 128, 11/4) is the co-favourite at the same price with a recent second last time (form -39512, Days:11), but steps up 4lb on the mark (MarkMv:+4) and is trained by a small yard (Debra Hamer, 15%, 53 runners) whose jockey Shane Fenelon has only a 9% career strike rate.
Each-way alternative: Hold Your Fort.
Main danger: Knappers Hill — Knappers Hill (SR 130, 7/2) is steaming in the market (Mkt:in12%), carries a fair 11-10, and Paul Nicholls (22% career strike rate, 567 runners) is the strongest training operation in the field — if connections have freshened this horse up after the PP-heavy recent form, it represents a serious threat.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string P5735- ends with a dash (most recent run unknown/pulled up indicator context unclear), but the visible finishes show a pull-up and no win in last 5 starts — no recent winning form to anch…
Top weight of 12-0 in a 5-runner Class 2 handicap at Aintree is a significant burden; no other runner carries more than 11-10, giving rivals a structural weight-for-age advantage across the field.
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill yard strike rate of only 11% is below-average for a fancied runner; market move of 11% inward in a thin 5-runner field can reflect small-field compression rather than genuine sta…
At age 10 with a form line showing a pull-up (P) and multiple mid-field finishes, there is a pattern of inconsistency at this level that the SR of 134 alone does not resolve — he has the rating but h…
ShortlistMonbeg Genius, Hold Your Fort, Knappers Hill