Unplaced in his last three and yet to win in his last six, Elusive Duke is back quickly after seven days, though he has run over today's trip and going and was second four starts back, while our rating of 65 ranks him only 11th of 14.
Form last 6272000
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR65RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Felix Somary is yet to win in his last six, though thirds two and three starts back show he can get involved, and he has run over today's trip; unplaced last time out and 38 days off, he carries 138 lb from draw 10.
Form last 6990330
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR73RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Glamazon is yet to win in her last six starts, though a third two starts back and another third four starts back show she can get involved, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Sixth last time out just eight days ago and 126 lb from stall two hold her back, though our 69 rating sits well above her official mark of 60.
Form last 6493036
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR69RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tribal Moon showed up well with a second and two thirds in his last five, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 74 ranks him third of 14. Yet to win in that spell, and a sixth last time out leaves a question over his sharpness off 140 lb from stall 16.
Form last 6332-06
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR74RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Celtic Druid has run over today's trip and going and is back after just 16 days, but he's finished eighth in his last two and is winless in his last six. A second and third four and five starts back show he has ability, though he carries 137 lb from stall five.
Form last 6732788
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR65RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Comfort Line was eighth last time out, though a fifth two starts back and a third three starts back, with a win four starts back, show he can pick up a cheque; he has run over today's trip and going, and 25 days off is no concern. Carrying 136 lb from stall 17, he looks a mid-pack type, ranked sixth of 14 by our rating.
Form last 6641358
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR69RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Eastern Peace comes into this on the back of a third last time out, and she has run over today's trip and going before, with a month since that run. Yet to win in her last five starts, she still gets the nod on her overall profile from draw 1.
Form last 6-30573
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR75RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won last time out and was second two starts back, so the form is on the up, but this gelding returns after 50 days and has run over today's trip. Carrying 135 lb from draw 14 off an official 69, he looks a midfield sort, with our rating of 67 ranking him tenth of 14.
Form last 6753821
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR67RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Big Jake is winless in his last three, finishing fifth last time out, an eighth two starts back and a fourth three starts back, and he is hard to fancy off 135 lb. A quick turnaround of six days and previous experience over today's trip are the positives, while our rating leaves him among the lowest-rated in the field.
Form last 6485
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
52SR62RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Expound tops our ratings at 76 against an official mark of 64, and he has run over today's trip and on this going, with a fourth two starts back and another fourth four starts back showing he is rarely far away. The risk is a disappointing eighth last time and no win in his last six starts.
Form last 6404748
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR76RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Summer Snow has run over today's trip and on this going, and our rating of 73 ranks her fourth of 14, with a speed figure of 79 to back it up, so she's a threat off an official mark of 64. The risk is form that reads poorly, an eighth last time out and yet to win in her last six, with a third four starts back her only top-three finish.
Form last 6083008
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR73RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last six, Limestone Red was seventh last time out, 18 days ago, and a fifth two starts back leaves him hard to fancy at 133 lb from draw 13. He has run over today's trip and going, and a second four starts back is the best of his form.
Form last 6882357
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR60RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dancing Steve was unplaced last time out, though he did win two starts back and was third the run before, so there is some ability here; he has run over today's trip and going, but carrying 132 lb from stall four, and ranked 13th of 14 on our figures, he is hard to fancy.
Form last 6008310
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR63RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to win in her last six, Enchanted Lady has finished seventh, ninth and seventh in her last three before an unplaced latest effort, though she has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 68 sits above her official 61, but 42 days off and 132 lb in stall six temper enthusiasm.
Form last 6457970
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR68RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tyraxes has finished seventh in his last two starts and is winless in his last six, though he's back after just 16 days and has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 68 sits above his official 61, but a midfield ranking of ninth of 14 tempers the optimism from stall 8.
Form last 6045977
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR68RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Trumph is hard to fancy, unplaced last time out and again two starts back, with a sixth three starts back her best recent finish, and she is yet to win in her last five. She has run over today's trip and had 37 days off, but 131 lb from stall 12 and our rating of 54 against an official 65 leave plenty to prove.
Form last 68-0600
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR54RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Lamberella is hard to fancy, unplaced in her last two and winless in her last six, with a fourth three starts back the best of her recent efforts. She has run over today's trip and is fresh from a 19-day break, but 129 lb from draw 15 and a bottom-ranked 14 of 14 on our figures say plenty.
Form last 6580400
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
39SR63RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Felix Somary owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (59). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/1John S O'DonoghueTBA
63%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tribal Moon
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · Noel C. Kelly✓ Value Signal
Comfort Line
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Adrian McGuinness◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Avec Grand Plaisir (SR:77, 3/1) is the clear SR leader in this field by 7 points over Eastern Peace (SR:70), carries a competitive 9-9, and has confirmed form on this going (GoingFit:+) with a recent win in the form string (753821 — last run a win). The 50-day absence is a mild concern, but the trainer Jarlath Fahey runs at 8% and the horse arrives proven on this ground. The market drift of 19% is the one flag — however, the price remains shortest or joint-shortest in the race, and no rival has both the SR advantage and the going confirmation. Eastern Peace (SR:70, 7/2) is the obvious danger but carries GoingFit:- on today's going and is 4lb heavier-equivalent given its course record is modest (W1P1). The SR gap and proven ground preference justify siding with Avec Grand Plaisir despite the drift.
Each-way alternative: Eastern Peace.
Main danger: Eastern Peace — Eastern Peace (SR:70, 7/2) is the second-highest SR in the field, drops 4lb on its mark (MarkMv:-4), and has course form (W1P1) — the GoingFit:- is the only meaningful knock and it could outrun that on a flat AW surface.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
50-day absence is significant in a competitive AW handicap — the horse arrives ring-rusty and trainer Fahey's 8% strike rate offers little confidence that he excels bringing horses back from a break.
Jockey Nathan Crosse has a very poor 4% strike rate from 926 rides, a meaningful negative relative to rivals ridden by Coen (11%) and Lee (15%) — this is a quantifiable riding disadvantage.
A 19% market drift is a pointed signal: market movers at Dundalk AW tend to be well-informed, and money has actively moved away from this horse since morning, suggesting stable confidence is not stro…
Mark has risen +4 since last win, so Avec Grand Plaisir is now reassessed upward by the handicapper — the last win came on a lower mark and winning off this revised rating is a stiffer task.
ShortlistAvec Grand Plaisir, Eastern Peace, Enchanted Lady