Newcastle (AW) 17:15 RESULTED
Class 4 16 Oct 2026

Today QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f

Official Result

QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Qila (GB) Harry Russell · Brian Ellison
    13/8F
  2. Second Ennoble (IRE)
    2/1
  3. 9/2
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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Ennoble silks
Ennoble
Age 3 · 9-7
6-U543
65
68
65OR
3
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 4/1 11/4
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Moretons silks
Moretons
Age 3 · 9-7
568906
45
22
45OR
3
9-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
80/1 33/1 66/1
SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
AI verdict

SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

3
Nip About silks
Nip About
Age 3 · 9-7
5
—
144
—
3
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
15/2 9/2 15/2
SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Qila silks
Qila FAV
Age 3 · 9-7
203332
70
84
70OR
3
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
evn Evs 5/6
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Celtic Arrow silks
Celtic Arrow
Age 3 · 9-2
225058
60
59
60OR
3
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 15/2 17/2
SR 59 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Sunday River silks
Sunday River
Age 3 · 9-2
0-3
—
151
—
3
9-2
★★★★☆
—
6/1 5/2 6/1
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Ennoble 10/3 open 5.50 3/1 open 6.00 11/4 open 5.50 11/4 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.00 10/3 Bet365
2 Moretons 80/1 open 34.00 100/1 open 51.00 66/1 open 41.00 66/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 41.00 100/1 Paddy Power
3 Nip About 15/2 open 6.50 8/1 open 5.50 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 Paddy Power
4 Qila evn open 2.38 10/11 open 2.00 10/11 open 2.20 10/11 open 2.20 5/6 open 2.20 1/1 open 2.10 evn Bet365
5 Celtic Arrow 9/1 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 17/2 open 10.00 9/1 Bet365
6 Sunday River 6/1 open 3.50 6/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 4.00 13/2 open 3.75 7/1 Coral

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Sunday River

Live signal

Sunday River owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (84) and market confidence (72). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/1 Brian Ellison Tom Kiely-Marshall(3)
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nip About

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

15/2 · Tracy Waggott
✓ Value Signal

Moretons

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

80/1 · Simon Waugh
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +31.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
72 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +15.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Live signal
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Sunday River
66.6 6/1
2 3. Nip About
64.3 15/2
3 4. Qila
53.6 evn
4 1. Ennoble
48.9 10/3
5 5. Celtic Arrow
45.2 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Qila
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 3 · 9-7
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-2
6/1
★★★★☆ SR 151 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
Age 3 · 9-7
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 144 🐾 —

SR 144 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-2
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Qila
Confidence: Medium

Qila (SR:84, 11/10) is the clear pick despite the SR ceiling — this is a Class 4 novice where SR:84 leads the realistic contenders once Sunday River's market drift of 38% is factored in. Qila has proven course form (W0P1 at Newcastle AW), is confirmed at the trip (DistFit:+) and on this going (GoingFit:+), and the market has tightened a further 6% since opening. The Brian Ellison yard runs two here but the market is emphatically signalling Qila as the stable's #1: the stablemate Sunday River has drifted dramatically to 4/1 from a shorter opening price. Qila's form of 2-0-3-3-3-2 shows consistent placing and the tongue-tie plus pads (HG:tp) are an established fit. Each-way alternative: Ennoble. Main danger: Sunday River — Sunday River carries the highest SR in the field at 151 — if that rating reflects latent ability and the horse handles the trip and going better than its unproven record (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?) suggests, it could outclass this field despite the 38% drift.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Sunday River holds a significant SR advantage (151 vs 84) — despite drifting 38%, if that drift is market noise rather than stable intelligence, Qila is facing a superior stablemate on raw ratings.
  • Qila's course form reads W0P1 — a single place at Newcastle AW with no win; consistent placing (2-3-3-3) suggests a horse that finds a way to be second or third rather than win.
  • Nip About (SR:144) is a lightly-raced debutant with only one run (Form:5) and a massive SR — if that figure reflects a promising trial or strong work, a 7/1 outsider could blow Qila away on debut imp…
  • Ennoble is tightening 20% into 7/2 with Connor Beasley-level jockey support — a live market mover at a fraction of Qila's price suggests the book is not as one-dimensional as the primary analyst impl…
Shortlist Qila, Ennoble, Sunday River
Each-way: Ennoble Danger: Sunday River

🗺 The Course Class 4

5f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade