Cerulean Bay is a leading danger, fresh from a fifth last time out just 15 days ago, with experience of today's trip and going, and our rating of 107 sits above his official 102. The risk is he's yet to win in his last six, and 140 lb from stall eight is a hefty burden.
Form last 6842905
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR107RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Brian arrives in cracking nick, a winner last time out and a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. The one concern is a 36-day break, while 137 lb from draw 13 is a stiff enough task.
Form last 6-08721
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR101RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Balmacara is yet to win in his last six starts, but he has run over today's trip and going before, and our ratings put him top of the 13 with a 109 that sits well clear of his official 98. Last seen 25 days ago, he carries 136 lb from stall nine, and a third six starts back is the best of his recent form.
Form last 6376087
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR109RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Urban Lion has managed just one win in his last six starts, a victor six starts back, and has been unplaced or ninth since, though he is fresh enough after 15 days and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 135 lb from stall two, he rates sixth of 13 on our figures, so a midfield finish looks likelier.
Form last 6100990
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
64SR100RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Third last time out and only 15 days ago, Eternal Force is fresh and has run over today's trip and going, though he is yet to win in his last five starts and has finished seventh in two of them. Our rating of 99 sits above his official 96, but 134 lb from stall 12 leaves him a midfield sort.
Form last 6-72673
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
92SR99RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Unplaced in his last two outings, Supido has been out of the frame since a fourth three starts back, though he did win six starts back and has run over today's trip. Fresh after 36 days off and carrying 130 lb from stall four, he sits ninth of 13 on our rating of 95.
Form last 6137400
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
64SR95RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Wechaad is consistent without being a winner, finishing fourth last time out and third two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. A 28-day break is fine, but he's yet to win in his last five and carries 130 lb from draw 6.
Form last 63-4734
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR101RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Sword Maker won two of his last five, including four and five starts back, but he's gone fifth, second, fifth since and was beaten last time, 15 days ago. Carrying 130 lb from draw 10, with our figures ranking him tenth of 13, he's hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip.
Form last 611-525
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR92RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Naval Light won last time out, 22 days ago, and has won three of his last six, with a third two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 128 lb from stall one, he sits eighth of 13 on our rating of 97, which tempers the case.
Form last 6811731
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR97RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Al Mubhir has been below par lately, unplaced last time out and a ninth two starts back, but he has run over today's trip and going, and our 103 ranks him third of 13 against an official 89, so he looks a leading threat; the risk is that he is yet to win in his last five starts.
Form last 60-0590
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
69SR103RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in his last five and unplaced last time out, Goodwood Galaxy returns after 141 days off with fourths and a sixth the best of his recent efforts, so he is hard to fancy at 127 lb from stall seven. He has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him 12th of 13.
Form last 6474-60
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR90RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Crazee Icon won last time out and has won three of her last six, with a seventh two starts back the blip, and she has run over today's trip and going. Even so, our rating of 90 ranks her only eleventh of 13, and 124 lb from stall five makes her hard to fancy.
Form last 6251171
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
96SR91RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Storming Point is winless in his last five, out of the places lately with a fifth last time out and a sixth before that, and 51 days off makes him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going though, and was second three starts back, so a place-type run isn't impossible from 119 lb.
Form last 6-32265
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
91SR89RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Cerulean Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (53) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1David O'MearaCieren Fallon
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Naval Light
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · K. R. Burke✓ Value Signal
Urban Lion
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Jack Channon◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Cerulean Bay (SR:95, 6/1) combines the strongest course record in the field (W2P3 at Goodwood) with a 21% market shortening — the most significant steam of any runner — and proven ability on Good to Soft going (GoingFit:+). Carrying 10-0 is a concern in a competitive Class 2 handicap, but Cieren Fallon (18% strike rate, 1,893 career runners) is a high-quality booking and David O'Meara (13%, 2,923 runners) is a dependable handler in these conditions. The form string 842905 looks patchy but the market move of 21% inward is hard to dismiss at a track where this horse has won twice before — Goodwood specialists at Goodwood on their preferred going are a significant positive combination. The weight concedes ground to the lighter-weighted younger horses but the course-specific edge and money coming is sufficient to tip the balance.
Each-way alternative: Naval Light.
Main danger: Storming Point — Storming Point (SR:91, 15/2) has steamed in 27% — the second-largest market move in the race — carries only 8-7 (a full 7lb less than Cerulean Bay), and James Doyle's booking with 51 days freshness may signal a yard targeting this race specifically after a prep break.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 842905 includes a '0' (pulled up or last) most recently and shows no win in the last 6 outings — a horse in this kind of form slump rarely fires off a 21% market move alone.
Carries top weight of 10-0 against several lightly-weighted 3-year-olds (Wechaad 9-4, Naval Light 9-2, Crazee Icon 8-12) — the 10-12lb weight swing to the younger horses is a substantial ask in a Cla…
Wechaad (SR:97, 10/3 market leader) and Naval Light (SR:99, form 811731 inc recent win) both post higher Speed Ratings than Cerulean Bay's SR:95, with Naval Light arriving on a six-race form string c…
The 21% market move looks less compelling when Naval Light has drifted out 19% and Crazee Icon out 23% — the 'steam' may reflect stable confidence rather than superior information, and Cerulean Bay's…
ShortlistCerulean Bay, Naval Light, Storming Point, Wechaad