Won his only recent start last time out, but that was 323 days ago, so he returns after a long absence and a fitness question. Carrying 154 lb, he is unexposed and open to improvement on what little form there is.
Form last 61-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
105SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Masked Blagny showed up well with a third last time out and has run over today's trip and going before, so he looks the one to beat on our numbers (rated 104, top of six). The 250-day absence and 153 lb are the only reservations.
Form last 63-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR104RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unraced and unexposed, Motivaspeed Essef makes his debut with no form to go on, so there is plenty of scope for improvement. The gelding carries 153 lb, and what he shows first time out will tell us more.
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Won last time out, his only recent start, so Onetingfornuttin is unexposed and open to improvement, though he returns after 231 days off and carries 153 lb, which makes fitness the question to answer.
Form last 61-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
106SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Too Many Acres is a blank canvas on his debut, with no form to lean on and plenty of scope to improve as an unexposed type. He carries 153 lb, so it's all about what he shows first time out.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
101SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Roxy Rocks was third last time out and a fourth two starts back, and she has run over today's trip, so she merits respect as a leading danger on 147 lb; the one concern is a 177-day layoff, and our rating of 95 ranks her second of six.
Form last 643-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR95RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Old Coast Road owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/4Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Onetingfornuttin
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/8 · Mickey Bowen✓ Value Signal
Roxy Rocks
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
100/1 · Chris Honour◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Onetingfornuttin (SR:106, 5/2) edges out Old Coast Road as the pick on a combination of SR-leadership and meaningful market support — a 13% market contraction since opening is the clearest information signal in a field where almost every other runner has drifted. James Bowen (20% strike rate, 1211 career rides) and trainer Mickey Bowen (16%, 521 runners) are a competent combination in bumpers. At 4 years old it carries the same weight as the other 4-year-olds (10-13) versus Old Coast Road's 11-0, giving it a 1lb weight advantage over the favourite despite essentially matching it on SR. Old Coast Road (SR:105, 7/4) is narrowly behind on both SR and weight and has drifted 7% — not catastrophic, but the money is not flowing its way today.
Each-way alternative: Too Many Acres.
Main danger: Too Many Acres — Paul Nicholls (22% strike rate, 560 runners) is one of the strongest bumper trainers in the country and Too Many Acres at 2/1 — carrying the same weight as Onetingfornuttin — has an SR of 101 that, while below the top two, is backed by an elite yard that consistently produces bumper winners from unexposed stock.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Too Many Acres (SR:101, 2/1) is trained by Paul Nicholls (22% strike rate, 560 runners) with Sam Twiston-Davies aboard — a significantly stronger handler/jockey combination than Mickey/James Bowen, a…
Old Coast Road carries the superior trainer-jockey pairing of Dan Skelton (22%, 2588 runners) and Harry Skelton (26%, 1671 rides) — the most powerful bumper operation in Britain — making the 7% drift…
Onetingfornuttin's single-run form ('1-') is one bumper start, meaning the 13% market contraction may reflect stable confidence rather than independently verified racecourse ability against an unknow…
Mickey Bowen's 16% strike rate across 521 runners is notably Welsh-circuit skewed; Chepstow may suit, but James Bowen's 20% rate still trails Harry Skelton's 26% materially, a meaningful edge in a ti…
ShortlistOnetingfornuttin, Too Many Acres, Old Coast Road