Virgin Bet Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race) · 1m1f11y
Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 139 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Donegan | 5/1 open 4.00 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.33 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Bundaberg | 16/1 open 10.00 | 14/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Iron Curtain | 4/1 open 3.50 | 7/2 open 3.25 | 7/2 open 3.00 | 7/2 open 3.00 | 7/2 open 3.50 | 7/2 open 3.50 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Royal Acclamation | 4/6 open 2.38 | 8/13 open 2.20 | 4/6 open 2.25 | 4/6 open 2.25 | 4/6 open 2.25 | 4/7 open 2.25 | 4/6 Bet365 |
| 5 Wilcox Bridge | 18/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 11.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 16/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Donegan owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (85) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 139 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Royal Acclamation (SR:104, 8/11) has shortened 23% in the market — the most significant move in this field — which combined with Charlie Appleby's exceptional 33% strike rate (the highest trainer SR here) and Billy Loughnane's solid 18% win rate makes this a powerful connections case. The 3-2-2 form string shows consistent engagement at the business end, and coming back in 15 days suggests the yard is happy and targeting this race deliberately. Yes, the SR of 104 looks low against Donegan (153) and Iron Curtain (152), but this is a 2yo novice where form-based SRs are inherently limited by race experience, and the market — which knows Appleby's string intimately — has made this a strong favourite. The main reservation is that both Donegan and Iron Curtain have produced higher-rated debut/second-run performances, meaning raw ability could override connections confidence. Each-way alternative: Donegan. Main danger: Donegan — Donegan (SR:153, 9/2) brings the highest rating in the field from a winning debut, is trained by in-form Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy (22% strike rate), and despite a 19% drift may simply have more raw ability than the market favourite has yet been asked to show.