Monaco Rules showed his hand with a second two starts back and has run over today's trip, while carrying 168 lb and our top-ranked 115 suggests he's a leading threat from an official 110. The main risk is a 168-day absence after a seventh last time out.
Form last 6P/42-7
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
101SR115RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 101 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two Auld Pals arrives in solid shape, third last time out and a winner three starts back, with only 22 days since that run and experience of today's trip and going. The main risk is the 165 lb he must carry.
Form last 638-143
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR108RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Travis Wheatley won three starts back and was third two runs ago, but he was eighth last time out and returns after 153 days off. He has run over today's trip and on the going, though 161 lb is a stiff burden for a midfield type.
Form last 66813-8
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR103RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Heart Above signed off with a third last time out just 20 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 106 ranks him fourth of eight. The risk is a burden of 160 lb, with only one win in his last five starts.
Form last 6-1P953
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR106RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ashdown Forest arrives in fine fettle, a winner last time out and again four starts back, with two thirds between, and he has run over today's trip and going. Back out after just seven days and carrying 158 lb off 101, though, he looks plenty to do, and our rating of 98 has him last of eight.
Form last 66-1331
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR98RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Boston Jury has been well beaten recently, with a seventh last time out and a sixth three starts back, but he has run over today's trip and going, returns after 31 days and sits second on our figures at 109. The 158 lb burden is the one concern.
Form last 687-6P7
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
67SR109RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Scots Poet won twice in his last six starts, though those wins came five and six starts back, and he's been a fourth last time out and a fifth before that. He has run over today's trip and going, but 156 lb and a 38-day break temper the appeal, with our rating of 100 placing him sixth of eight.
Form last 611U254
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR100RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Character Testing is consistent but yet to win in his last six starts, with fourths last time out and two starts back, and seconds three and six runs ago. Carrying 150 lb, he's hard to fancy, ranked seventh of eight on our figures, though he has run over today's trip and going and is fit after 17 days.
Form last 6244244
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR99RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Ashdown Forest owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (62) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/8Dan SkeltonMiss Heidi Palin(5)
79%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Monaco Rules
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
8/1 · Micky Hammond✓ Value Signal
Boston Jury
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Andrew Hamilton◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Ashdown Forest (SR 112, 6/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin of 5 points over Two Auld Pals (SR 107), carries a fair 11-4, and comes in off a recent 6-1331 form string — a last-time-out winner — with the market affirming confidence via an 11% shortening. Dan Skelton's 22% career strike rate is the strongest training record in this field, and Miss Heidi Palin matches that 22% strike rate personally, an unusually potent combination. GoingFit:+ confirms the good ground suits, which is today's going, removing a key risk for a 4-year-old stepping up one class. The class rise (ClassMv:↑1) and a 6lb rise in mark (MarkMv:+6) are the only reservations, but a trainer of Skelton's calibre running a last-time-out winner back just seven days later signals genuine confidence that this horse is well within itself.
Each-way alternative: Two Auld Pals.
Main danger: Two Auld Pals — Two Auld Pals (SR 107, 4/1) has the second-best SR, is proven at this trip (DistFit:+), has course form (W0P1 at Kelso), has been backed 15%, and drops a class — if Ashdown Forest finds the step up in class tougher than expected, Two Auld Pals is the most likely beneficiary, despite running off a mark 8lb higher than the last win.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Runs just 7 days after last victory — quick back-to-back turnaround for a 4-year-old stepping up in class risks residual fatigue at a track like Kelso that demands jumping accuracy.
MarkMv:+6 combined with ClassMv:↑1 means the handicapper has reacted swiftly; Ashdown Forest has never been tested at this mark or class level, so the form string of 6-1331 may not translate.
Two Auld Pals (SR 107, 4/1) has a course placing (W0P1) at Kelso and was beaten only 4lb on adjusted ratings last time, offering a live threat with 22 days' fresher prep and a jockey who knows the tr…
Heart Above holds W3P10 at this course — by far the most prolific course record in the field — and races off a mark 2lb lower than last time (MarkMv:-2), a dangerous combination at a track where loca…
ShortlistAshdown Forest, Two Auld Pals, Monaco Rules, Heart Above