Ranked second of 11 on our figures, Godwinson has run over today's trip and is rated 96 officially, so he looks a leading threat from stall nine. The concern is a poor recent run, unplaced in each of his last five starts, plus 85 days off.
Form last 600-000
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
73SR94RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
River King tops our ranking with a rating of 95 and arrives fresh after 21 days, having won four starts back and finished second five back, while he has run over today's trip. The risk is a slide since, with an unplaced run last time and a fourth and a fifth before it.
Form last 6-21540
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR95RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Cavolo Nero won two starts back and three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going, so a consecutive-win profile makes him a real threat from stall one. The risk is a ninth last time out and a 49-day break, which leaves fitness a question.
Form last 6234119
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR93RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Shipbourne won last time out and again four starts back, so he arrives in good heart after 32 days off, and he has run over today's trip. Against that, a ninth two starts back shows his inconsistency, and 135 lb off an official 93 looks a stiff ask.
Form last 63-1091
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR90RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Anyasi arrives in good heart, a second last time out and a winner three and four starts back, and he has run over today's trip before after a 29-day break. A fifth two starts back is the one blot, but his profile still makes him our pick from stall eight.
Form last 63-1152
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR90RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mr Professor was fifth last time out and a second two starts back, but he is yet to win in his last five and returns after 54 days off. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 91 ranks him fourth of 11, though 131 lb from stall six is no gift.
Form last 656-625
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR91RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Andesite won two starts back and three starts back, but was unplaced last time out, and he has been beaten in the earlier three runs of that sequence. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our figures rank him 11th of 11, and 129 lb from stall 3 looks a stiff ask.
Form last 6057110
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR83RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Desperate Dan has finished sixth last time out, a fourth two starts back, then a sixth and a ninth, so his only win in the last five came five starts ago, which makes him hard to fancy. He's quick back after eight days and has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him tenth of 11.
Form last 61-9646
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR84RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Monoceros won three starts back but has since finished a seventh then an eighth, and he's back quickly after just eight days. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 87 sits above his official 83, though ranking eighth of eleven suggests a modest ceiling from 125 lb in stall 5.
Form last 6595178
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR87RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lir Speciale arrives fresh from a third last time out just eight days ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before, but he's winless in his last six, a run that includes an eighth and a seventh. Our rating of 87 sits above his official 80, though 125 lb from stall seven asks plenty.
Form last 6578053
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR87RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
On The River is yet to win in his last six starts, though he was second last time out and a second three starts back, and he's fresh from just eight days ago. Ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, he's hard to fancy, but he has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6753272
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR87RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lir Speciale owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3Brian EllisonWilliam Buick
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Cavolo Nero
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
15/2 · Harry Eustace✓ Value Signal
Andesite
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Roger Fell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Lir Speciale (SR:88, 7/2) is the most comprehensively signalled runner in this field. Carrying the lightest weight in the competitive range at 8-13, it holds GoingFit:+ confirming genuine heavy-ground ability — critical in a race on heavy going at Doncaster where most rivals show GoingFit:? — and its Course:W3P4 record marks it as a genuine Doncaster specialist. William Buick's booking (25% career strike rate, 1,544 runners) is the strongest jockey signal in the field, and the market has shortened 11% to 7/2. The form string 578053 shows inconsistency, but the heavy-ground + course combination alone separates it from rivals that are untested in these conditions, and the MarkMv:+3 is a modest rise rather than a punishing hike.
Each-way alternative: Desperate Dan.
Main danger: Desperate Dan — Desperate Dan (SR:81, 15/2) also holds GoingFit:+ — proven heavy-ground form — plus Course:W1P1 at Doncaster, is freshened up with first-time blinkers, carries the lightest weight among course-proven runners at 9-1, and has been backed in 20% since opening, suggesting connections believe the headgear change unlocks improvement.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 578053 shows a win only 3 races ago (the '3') but the last two runs are '5' and '0' — a blank and a distant fifth, suggesting the horse is deteriorating rather than peaking into this race.
HG:p (placed on heavy ground, not won) undermines the GoingFit:+ claim; rivals Desperate Dan (HG:b, beaten) and Andesite (HG:t, tried) aside, Cavolo Nero's SR:94 and strong recent form 234119 represe…
Brian Ellison's 10% trainer strike rate is the weakest among the fancied runners and materially below the field average — the stable form signal does not support a market-priced favourite at 7/2.
River King (SR:90) has shortened 31% into 11/2 carrying 9-13 with a fresher 21-day break and better raw ability rating, suggesting the market may be backing the wrong shortener in this contest.
ShortlistLir Speciale, Desperate Dan, River King, On The River