Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race) · 2m0f87y
SR 99 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 94 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 94 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 11-1 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 90 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
SR 74 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 90 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 98 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 89 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 96 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 I've Got A Friend | 14/1 | 11/1 open 26.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Littlebobbydazzler | 12/1 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 17/2 open 15.00 | 17/2 open 13.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Port Isaac | 9/1 open 6.50 | 17/2 open 6.50 | 8/1 open 6.50 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 9/1 open 6.00 | 9/1 open 6.50 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Tythingman | 13/2 open 8.50 | 11/2 open 5.50 | 13/2 open 6.50 | 13/2 open 7.00 | 13/2 open 7.00 | 13/2 open 6.00 | 13/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Delusionofgrandeur | 12/1 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 14/1 | 14/1 Betfred |
| 6 Ballycrystal Boy | 15/8 open 5.00 | 7/4 open 6.00 | 7/4 open 5.50 | 7/4 open 5.50 | 15/8 open 5.00 | 15/8 open 5.50 | 15/8 Bet365 |
| 7 Cask Of Pimlico | 18/1 open 17.00 | 16/1 open 21.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 16/1 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Dennis's Honor | 40/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 50/1 open 23.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 50/1 William Hill |
| 9 Freetobe | 17/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 9/1 open 12.00 | 9/1 open 12.00 | 9/1 open 12.00 | 9/1 open 13.00 | 9/1 Coral |
| 10 Micky Haller | 6/1 open 13.00 | 11/2 open 13.00 | 11/2 open 15.00 | 11/2 open 15.00 | 7/1 open 15.00 | 13/2 open 12.00 | 7/1 William Hill |
| 11 Milord D'anjou | 15/2 open 12.00 | 13/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 Bet365 |
| 12 Newgrove | 10/3 open 5.00 | 10/3 open 3.75 | 7/2 open 4.33 | 7/2 open 4.33 | 7/2 open 4.33 | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 Coral |
| 13 Ask Millie | 16/1 open 23.00 | 12/1 open 34.00 | 12/1 open 23.00 | 12/1 open 23.00 | 14/1 open 23.00 | 16/1 open 26.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 14 Stoner's Sister | 16/1 open 12.00 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 14/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Ballycrystal Boy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-1 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 110 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 98 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 90 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 94 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 94 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 99 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 89 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 96 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 90 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Ballycrystal Boy (SR:113, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries just 11-1 — a favourable weight for a bumper at this level. The market has moved dramatically in his favour (Mkt:in33%), the strongest steaming of any horse in the race, suggesting significant stable/market confidence. Trainer Jamie Snowden posts a 26% career strike rate from 854 runners — outstanding for a National Hunt yard — and Gavin Sheehan (22%, 1320 runners) is an experienced booking who knows Cheltenham. While every runner in this bumper shows DistFit:? and GoingFit:? given their inexperience, Ballycrystal Boy's SR leads the field by 3 points over Newgrove (SR:110) and his connections signal clearly they expect to win. Each-way alternative: Newgrove. Main danger: Newgrove — Newgrove (SR:110, 10/3) is ridden by Harry Skelton (27%, 1715 runners — the highest jockey strike rate in the field) and is Dan Skelton's clear #1 runner over stablemate Micky Haller, making him the most dangerous threat to the selection.