One Horse Town has been placed in three of his last five, including a second three starts back and another second four starts back, and he is fit after 23 days off, having run over today's trip and going before. The risk is a sixth last time out and top weight of 162 lb.
Form last 632206-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
122SR130RPR129OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 122 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Three wins in her last five starts and a third last time out is strong form, and she has run over today's trip and going, but 182 days off is a concern and she carries 155 lb off an official mark of 125. Our rating of 118 ranks her fifth of seven.
Form last 611513-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
127SR118RPR125OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 127 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Indian River returns after 28 days with two wins in his last five starts, having won four and five starts back, plus a third two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. A seventh last time out is the one blot, but his profile makes him our pick.
Form last 61103-7
★AI Rating★★★★☆
131SR134RPR134OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-0 gives a real edge in this handicap.
In The Minus arrives in good heart after a second last time out and a third before that, and he has run over today's trip and going, but 43 days off and 154 lb on a mark of 121 make him hard to fancy. Our figures rank him sixth of seven.
Form last 6-50132
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
96SR115RPR121OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lord Byron is consistent, with a second two starts back and a fourth the time before, and he's fresh from a 15-day break having run over today's trip and going before; our rating has him top of seven. The risk is that he's yet to win in his last five and carries 154 lb after a sixth last time out.
Form last 64542-6
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
139SR135RPR147OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
North Shore showed he's in good heart with a fourth last time out, 15 days ago, and a winner two starts back, while he has run over today's trip and on the going before. The main risk is 154 lb on an official rating of 135, with our rating of 131 putting him third of seven.
Form last 640F-14
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
131SR131RPR135OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 131 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Tunisya returns after 189 days off, having been unplaced last time out, and a fourth two starts back follows a win three starts back, so the trend is downwards. She has run over today's trip, but 151 lb and a bottom-ranked 106 on our figures make her hard to fancy.
Form last 6140-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR106RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
North Shore owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (73) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Indian River
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/4 · Adrian Keatley✓ Value Signal
Tunisya
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
80/1 · Faye Bramley◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Indian River (SR 131, 9/4) is the most compelling case in the field. The 20% market move in — the strongest steamer in this race — signals informed money, and Brian Hughes (19% strike rate across 1,000 runners) is a confident booking. Running off the same class mark (ClassMv:=) means no step into the unknown, and at 11-0 he carries a meaningful weight advantage over One Horse Town (11-8) and a 6lb pull on Lord Byron (11-0, SR 139) who is hampered by DistFit:- and GoingFit:- — two specific negatives that undercut the higher SR. The form of 1103-7 shows he can win at this level and the most recent run seventh is counterbalanced by that sharp market move suggesting connections are confident today.
Each-way alternative: North Shore.
Main danger: Lord Byron — Lord Byron has the highest SR in the field (139) with Harry Cobden (22% strike rate) booked, and despite the GoingFit:- and DistFit:- concerns and an 8% drift, the class drop (ClassMv:↓1) and fresh legs at only 15 days mean he cannot be ignored if he adapts to conditions.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Indian River's most recent run was a seventh — a sharp drop in form — and the 20% market move may reflect connections' hope rather than genuine improvement evidence.
North Shore (SR:131, same rating) is trained by Dan Skelton (22% strike rate) and ridden by Harry Skelton (27%), a significantly stronger trainer-jockey combination than Keatley/Hughes, and has won m…
Form of 1103-7 shows the last two runs are a fall/unseated (3) and a seventh — consecutive below-par efforts suggesting a horse that may have had a problem or lost its way at this level.
North Shore drifted 20% out in the market, but Lord Byron at 3/1 with Harry Cobden (22% SR, 894 runners) and a fresher 15-day turnaround represents strong market competition that squeezes Indian Rive…