Mt Fugi Park arrives in cracking form, a winner last time out and again two starts back, with three wins in his last five, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is his burden of 168 lb off a 39-day break.
Form last 6F1-P11
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
123SR129RPR136OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 123 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Uncle Bert is a winner four starts back and has run over today's trip and going, while his trainer's yard is flying at 8 from 25 in the last fortnight; our rating of 136 has him top of nine, but two sevenths since and 196 days off are the concern.
Form last 6/1F77-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
127SR136RPR135OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 127 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Katate Dori has been off 189 days and was pulled up last time, but he was second three starts back and has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 164 lb off 132, he is our pick on overall profile despite a long absence.
Form last 67628P-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
123SR132RPR132OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 123 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Shannon Royale has run over today's trip and going, and his 132 rating ranks second of nine, with a fifth last time out and another fifth two starts back suggesting he's competitive off 162 lb. The main risk is a 177-day layoff after a winless run of recent starts.
Form last 65P755-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
102SR132RPR130OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Moon D'Orange has been winless in his last five, finishing seventh last time out, though a third four starts back shows he can still get involved, and he has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 157 lb off 125 after 29 days off, he looks a midfield sort, with our rating of 128 ranking him fifth of nine.
Form last 6037-07
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
116SR128RPR125OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Diamond Dealer won last time out and has three wins in his last five starts, with a second two runs before, but he's had 217 days off and carries 155 lb. Our rating of 118 ranks him eighth of nine, and he has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 611P21-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
127SR118RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 127 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Without a win in his last five, Here Comes Georgie has been placed twice recently, a third last time out and another third two starts back, but a 231-day absence is a concern, and carrying 155 lb makes him hard to fancy. He has run on today's going, and our figures rank him seventh of nine.
Form last 662633-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
123SR123RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-1 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Karnaval Point is a fresh-enough 17 days since finishing second last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going, but he's a one-time winner six starts back and a sixth two starts back shows the inconsistency. Carrying 153 lb off 121, he looks a mid-pack type, with our rating of 124 ranking him sixth of nine.
Form last 6163562
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
111SR124RPR121OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 111 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Neo King was pulled up last time out and returns after 224 days off, which makes him hard to fancy, especially with a yard that is 0/31 in the last 14 days and 151 lb on his back. On the plus side, he was a winner three starts back, a third two starts back, and has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 62613P-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
102SR115RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Here Comes Georgie owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (68) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/2Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Uncle Bert
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies✓ Value Signal
Neo King
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Mrs C. Williams◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Diamond Dealer (SR 127, 9/2) is Dan Skelton's yard-first runner here: ridden by Tristan Durrell rather than Harry Skelton, but crucially has steamed in 25% in the market versus stablemate Here Comes Georgie's more modest 10% drift — strong money is on Diamond Dealer. GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good-to-soft, which is a key edge over most rivals who carry unknown or negative going records. At 7 years old and carrying 11-1 (lighter than top-weighted Mt Fugi Park by a full 13lb), the weight profile is favourable. The form line 11P21- shows three wins and a near-miss at this level, and the 25% market move at a yard with a 22% strike rate (Skelton, 2662 runners) signals genuine stable confidence ahead of a 217-day layoff.
Each-way alternative: Here Comes Georgie.
Main danger: Here Comes Georgie — Here Comes Georgie (SR 123, 7/2) shares the same trainer and going preference (GoingFit:+), carries the same weight as Diamond Dealer (11-1), is ridden by the more powerful Harry Skelton (27% career strike rate vs 15%), and has also been backed in — if Skelton decides to switch his riding instructions in the race, Here Comes Georgie has the tools to beat the yard's market-mover.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
217-day layoff is a significant fitness question at Cheltenham, where race-fit rivals like Karnaval Point (17 days) and Mt Fugi Park (39 days) have a clear freshness edge over a horse returning from…
Harry Skelton (27% strike rate, 1715 runners) is on stablemate Here Comes Georgie, not Diamond Dealer — when a yard splits runners, the booking of the stable's #1 jockey is the stronger form signal,…
GoingFit is listed as 't' (tubed/tongue-tie only?) rather than 'ht' like Here Comes Georgie, suggesting Diamond Dealer's going suitability evidence is thinner and less confirmed on good-to-soft Chelt…
Form 11P21- includes a pulled-up run (P) and the last completed effort was a second — the layoff follows a dash (-) suggesting the horse may have been off due to an issue, and the +3 MarkMv indicates…
ShortlistDiamond Dealer, Here Comes Georgie, Uncle Bert
Each-way: Here Comes GeorgieDanger: Here Comes Georgie