Punchestown 17:07 RESULTED
14 Oct 2026

Last Wednesday Matchbook Betting Exchange (Q.R.) Handicap Steeplechase

Matchbook Betting Exchange (Q.R.) Handicap Steeplechase · 2m5f69y

Official Result

Matchbook Betting Exchange (Q.R.) Handicap Steeplechase

Confirmed
  1. Winner Giant Haystacks (IRE) Mr D McGill · Ross O'Sullivan
    7/2
  2. 9/1
  3. 5/4F
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Nottingham

13:19–17:22 · 8 races

Wetherby

13:25–16:52 · 7 races

Punchestown

13:35–17:40 · 8 races

Ffos Las

13:45–17:13 · 7 races

Kempton (AW)

16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 3 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Secret She Keeps silks
Secret She Keeps
Age 9 · 12-4
84/P4-
110
70
116
9
12-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 FCST 28/1
Fourth last time out and fourth again three starts back, Secret She Keeps has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 116 puts her top of the ten. The risk is a 193-day absence, with 172 lb to carry.
AI verdict

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

2
Harbour Highway silks
Harbour Highway
Age 7 · 12-2
-25P63
108
97
112
7
12-2
★★☆☆☆
—
7/2 3/1 7/2
Harbour Highway arrives fresh from a third last time out just 18 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before, which makes him our pick on overall profile. Carrying 170 lb is a reservation, but our 112 rating supports the call.
AI verdict

SR 97 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Mags Nelson silks
Mags Nelson
Age 7 · 12-0
3183-4
106
93
105
7
12-0
★★★☆☆
—
17/2 13/2 7/1
Mags Nelson comes in fit after a fourth last time out just 14 days ago, with a third two starts back and a win four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before; a weight of 168 lb is the main risk.
AI verdict

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Aurea Fortuna silks
Aurea Fortuna FAV
Age 7 · 11-11
059P-4
103
92
107
7
11-11
★★☆☆☆
—
6/4 32/17 18/13
Fit after 19 days off and fourth last time out, Aurea Fortuna has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 107 puts him third of ten, so he rates a live threat off 103. The risk is a winless run in recent starts, including a pulled up two starts back, with 165 lb to carry.
AI verdict

SR 92 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Giant Haystacks silks
Giant Haystacks
Age 7 · 11-8
-43109
100
93
103
7
11-8
★★☆☆☆
—
7/2 6/1 10/3
Beaten in a ninth last time out and unplaced the run before, this gelding is a winner three starts back who has run over today's trip and going, though 47 days off and 162 lb temper enthusiasm; our rating of 103 ranks him fifth of ten.
AI verdict

SR 93 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Western Model silks
Western Model
Age 7 · 11-5
831423
97
99
100
7
11-5
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 7/2 4/1
Western Model arrives fit after 14 days, third last time out and second the run before, with a winner four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 159 lb off 97 is a hefty burden, though, and our rating of 100 ranks him only sixth of ten.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
My Cullen silks
My Cullen
Age 6 · 10-12
2402P2
90
88
95
6
10-12
★★★☆☆
—
7/1 4/1 13/2
Winless in his last six, My Cullen was second last time out just eight days ago, but he was pulled up two starts back and has been second three times without breaking through. He has run over today's trip and going, yet 152 lb is a big ask, and our figures rank him ninth of ten.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Fr Gilligansvoyge silks
Fr Gilligansvoyge
Age 13 · 10-10
112067
88
61
84
13
10-10
★☆☆☆☆
—
18/1 22/1 16/1
Hard to fancy after finishing seventh last time out and a sixth before that, with those two wins now five and six starts back, and he is quick to reappear after just five days. Carrying 150 lb off a mark of 88 is a stiff task, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

9
Revolut Ned silks
Revolut Ned
Age 7 · 10-7
0-1370
84
66
99
7
10-7
★★☆☆☆
—
28/1 22/1 25/1
Revolut Ned won four starts back and was a third three starts back, but he has since slipped to a seventh and then unplaced last time, though he is fresh enough after 14 days and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 147 lb off 84, he rates a midfield sort on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Subset silks
Subset
Age 12 · 10-7
/2-P0P
72
50
96
12
10-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
100/1 50/1 80/1
Subset has been pulled up in two of his last three outings, including last time five days ago, and is winless in recent starts, so he is hard to fancy under 147 lb. A second four starts back and experience of today's trip and going are the only real positives.
AI verdict

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 150/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Secret She Keeps 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 28/1 33/1 Bet365
2 Harbour Highway 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 Bet365
3 Mags Nelson 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 8.00 7/1 7/1 8/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 8.00 17/2 Bet365
4 Aurea Fortuna 6/4 open 5.00 11/8 open 2.88 6/4 open 3.25 6/4 open 3.25 6/4 open 3.25 11/8 open 3.00 6/4 Bet365
5 Giant Haystacks 7/2 open 9.50 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.50 7/2 open 7.50 7/2 open 7.50 10/3 open 7.50 7/2 Bet365
6 Western Model 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 Bet365
7 My Cullen 7/1 open 5.00 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 Bet365
8 Fr Gilligansvoyge 18/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 34.00 16/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 29.00 18/1 Bet365
9 Revolut Ned 28/1 open 23.00 25/1 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 28/1 Bet365
10 Subset 100/1 80/1 open 151.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 open 101.00 80/1 open 101.00 100/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Aurea Fortuna

Live signal

Aurea Fortuna owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/4 A. J. Martin Mr Finian Maguire
77% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Western Model

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · Andrew Kinirons
✓ Value Signal

Revolut Ned

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · William P Murphy
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
93 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Aurea Fortuna
63.1 6/4
2 6. Western Model
57.4 4/1
3 5. Giant Haystacks
56.5 7/2
4 7. My Cullen
56.1 7/1
5 2. Harbour Highway
55.5 7/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Harbour Highway
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 7 · 11-11
6/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 92 🐾 —

SR 92 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 7 · 12-2
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 97 🐾 —

SR 97 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 7 · 11-8
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 93 🐾 —

SR 93 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 11-5
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾 —

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 6 · 10-12
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 7 · 12-0
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 93 🐾 —

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 13 · 10-10
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Harbour Highway
Confidence: Speculative

Harbour Highway (SR 97, 11/4) is the highest-rated runner in the field and the market has backed it in 14% since opening — the only steamer in the race. Trainer Emmet Mullins runs at 14% career strike rate, well above most rivals here, and jockey Mr Derek O'Connor is a strong amateur booking at 20%. The form string 25P63 is mixed but the P came on a bad day and the horse has run recently (18 days), suggesting the yard is happy with its condition. At joint-shortest price it carries 12-2 but still holds a SR edge over every rival; the market money and connections strength are the decisive tie-breakers. Each-way alternative: Western Model. Main danger: Western Model — Western Model (SR 99, 4/1) is actually the top SR in the field, proven on today's going (GoingFit:+), has course form (W1P2), runs off the same mark as his last win (MarkMv:=), and carries only 11-5 — a significant weight advantage over Harbour Highway — making him a live threat if the money is simply not there yet.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Western Model holds a higher SR (99 vs 97) and is at joint-favourite price (4/1) without drifting — actually the market has NOT moved against it — representing a superior-rated rival the analyst unde…
  • Form string -25P63 shows a pulled-up run and a recent sixth; the last completed run was a third at best, and the sequence offers no win in the visible recent form, a concern at a competitive Punchest…
  • Harbour Highway carries top weight 12-2 in what appears a hunter-chase/amateur handicap context; Aurea Fortuna (W1P2 at course, only 11-11) and Western Model (W1P2 at course, 11-5) both carry less we…
  • The 14% market move inward is modest (+4 marks) and shared with other movers in the race; Aurea Fortuna moved +7 and Giant Haystacks +5, diluting the significance of Harbour Highway's steam as a lone…
Shortlist Harbour Highway, Western Model, Mags Nelson
Each-way: Western Model Danger: Western Model

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m5f69y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Punchestown Track and setting