Nottingham 16:47 RESULTED
Class 5 14 Oct 2026

Last Wednesday Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II) · 1m75y

Official Result

Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Vega's Virtue (IRE) David Allan · Tim Easterby
    9/2
  2. 2/1F
  3. 5/2
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Nottingham

13:19–17:22 · 8 races

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13:25–16:52 · 7 races

Punchestown

13:35–17:40 · 8 races

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13:45–17:13 · 7 races

Kempton (AW)

16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Ephron silks
Ephron Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-8
527167
69
—
69OR
3
9-8
—
—
SP
—
1
Lillie Margot silks
Lillie Margot
Age 3 · 9-9
721347
70
78
78
3
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
3/1 11/4 5/2
Lillie Margot has been in the frame in three of her last six, including a win four starts back and a third three starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our top-rated runner at 78 against an official 70, she is the one to beat despite a seventh last time out, and she lines up from draw seven after 35 days off.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Napolian silks
Napolian
Age 3 · 9-7
047265
68
58
70
3
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 13/2 10/1
Napolian has run over today's trip and on this going, and a second three starts back shows he can get involved, while 30 days since his last run is a fair break. The risk is that he is yet to win in his last six starts, finishing fifth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Trinculo silks
Trinculo
Age 3 · 9-6
-33507
67
55
70
3
9-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
10/1 15/2 7/1
Trinculo has been in decline since a pair of thirds four and five starts back, with a seventh last time out, though he's back quickly after nine days and has run over today's trip and going. Winless in his last five and carrying 132 lb from stall eight, he looks a midfield type, with our rating of 70 only slightly above his official 67.
AI verdict

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

5
Vega's Virtue silks
Vega's Virtue
Age 3 · 9-5
381314
66
69
68
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/1 9/2
Vega's Virtue arrives in solid shape, a fourth last time out, and a winner two starts back, with two wins in her last six and experience of both today's trip and the going. Carrying 131 lb from stall five and ranked sixth of nine on our rating of 68, she looks more a midfield player than a threat.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Shadow Run silks
Shadow Run
Age 3 · 9-5
025697
66
66
73
3
9-5
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2
Shadow Run is a leading danger on our figures, ranked second of nine with a speed rating of 78, and he has run over today's trip and going back in action after just 11 days. The risk is form that has tailed off, with a seventh last time out and yet to win in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Ice Cube silks
Ice Cube FAV
Age 3 · 9-3
561416
64
73
72
3
9-3
★★★☆☆
—
9/4 21/13 9/4
Ice Cube has won twice in his last six starts, taking a first two starts back and another four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before; our rating of 72 ranks him third of nine. The risk is a sixth last time out, 26 days ago, and he carries 129 lb from draw 3.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Fickle McSelfish silks
Fickle McSelfish
Age 3 · 9-3
451329
64
52
67
3
9-3
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 11/1 10/1
Fickle McSelfish was beaten into ninth last time out after a second and a third in the two runs before, and he's back quickly after just 13 days. He has run over today's trip and going, but carrying 129 lb from stall six, he looks hard to fancy, with our rating of 67 putting him seventh of nine.
AI verdict

SR 52 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Blue Hill silks
Blue Hill
Age 3 · 9-0
5455
61
59
65
3
9-0
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 7/1 6/1
Blue Hill is winless in her last four, finishing fifth last time out, fifth two starts back, a fourth three starts back and fifth again four starts back, which makes her hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 65 ranks her eighth of nine, though a 34-day break and a handicap mark of 61 give her a little to work with.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Far Far Out silks
Far Far Out
Age 3 · 8-6
58800
53
34
58
3
8-6
★★☆☆☆
—
50/1 100/1 35/1
Far Far Out is winless in his last five, with unplaced efforts last time out and two starts back after an eighth four starts back, so he is hard to fancy. He has at least run over today's trip and is fresh enough after 16 days, though our rating ranks him ninth of nine.
AI verdict

SR 34 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Ephron — — — — — — —
1 Lillie Margot 3/1 open 5.50 11/4 open 4.50 5/2 open 5.00 5/2 open 5.00 11/4 open 5.00 11/4 3/1 Bet365
3 Napolian 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 8.00 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 Bet365
4 Trinculo 10/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 9.00 7/1 open 8.50 7/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 Bet365
5 Vega's Virtue 5/1 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.50 5/1 Bet365
6 Shadow Run 13/2 open 21.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 17.00 13/2 open 17.00 13/2 open 17.00 13/2 13/2 Bet365
7 Ice Cube 9/4 open 2.63 9/4 open 2.63 9/4 open 2.63 9/4 open 2.63 9/4 open 2.62 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 Bet365
8 Fickle McSelfish 10/1 open 12.00 12/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 Paddy Power
9 Blue Hill 13/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 8.00 13/2 Bet365
10 Far Far Out 50/1 open 101.00 35/1 open 101.00 40/1 open 101.00 40/1 open 101.00 40/1 open 101.00 40/1 open 101.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Ice Cube

Speculative

Ice Cube owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/4 Richard Spencer Saffie Osborne
75% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Lillie Margot

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

3/1 · Jedd O'Keeffe
✓ Value Signal

Far Far Out

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Tony Carroll
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
90 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Ice Cube
56.1 9/4
2 1. Lillie Margot
51.7 3/1
3 5. Vega's Virtue
47.6 5/1
4 6. Shadow Run
46.6 13/2
5 9. Blue Hill
46.2 13/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Lillie Margot
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Ice Cube FAV
Age 3 · 9-3
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 3 · 9-9
3/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-5
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-5
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 9-0
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-7
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾 —

SR 58 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-6
10/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

8
Age 3 · 9-3
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 52 🐾 —

SR 52 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lillie Margot
Confidence: Speculative

Lillie Margot (SR 78, 11/4) is the standout on raw ability — the highest SR in the field by 5 points over Ice Cube (SR 73) — and carries a manageable 9-9 for a 3-year-old dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1). The market has spoken loudly with a 30% inward move, the strongest steaming signal in the field. She holds course form (Course:W1P2), proven at the trip (DistFit:+), and while GoingFit is unknown, the form string 721347 shows consistent competitiveness with a recent win. The combination of top SR, class drop, course record, and significant market support is the clearest multi-signal case in the race. Each-way alternative: Vega's Virtue. Main danger: Ice Cube — Ice Cube (SR 73, 11/4) shares the same price as the selection and has a consistent recent form line including a win (561416), with a lighter weight of 9-3 and an in-form jockey booking in Saffie Osborne (14% strike rate), though the confirmed poor distance record (DistFit:-) and a 43% market drift are serious concerns that keep it second in the shortlist.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 721347 shows the recent win was followed by a 7th — she may have regressed since that peak, and her last run was 35 days ago with no indication of an intended prep race to sharpen her up.
  • Jack Garritty's 11% strike rate from 687 rides is modest, and Ice Cube's jockey Saffie Osborne (14%) actually outperforms him — at identical 11/4 co-favourites, the market hasn't actually separated t…
  • GoingFit is unknown for Lillie Margot, a notable red flag given Nottingham can vary significantly in October — if conditions have shifted soft/heavy since her qualifying form, her SR advantage may be…
  • Ice Cube (SR 73) has drifted 43% out but Vega's Virtue (SR 69, 3-star rating, form 381314 showing a very recent 1) is on a stronger current form trajectory at 15/2 — Lillie Margot's last three runs r…
Shortlist Lillie Margot, Ice Cube, Vega's Virtue
Each-way: Vega's Virtue Danger: Ice Cube

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m75y Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Nottingham Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade