Gatehouse Boy was a fifth last time out after being pulled up two starts back, though he won four starts back and has run over today's trip and going before. Fresh enough after 18 days, he carries 166 lb and his yard is cold at 1/33, which tempers the appeal.
Form last 6/10P-5
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR97RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
King Of The Greys has been pulled up in his last three runs, so the form is poor, but he has run on today's going and returns after 24 days. Our rating of 100 ranks him second of 18, and the single main risk is that stamina or fitness has failed him lately, with 166 lb to carry.
Form last 68-8PPP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR100RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Bearami Creek has been unplaced last time out and pulled up two starts back, yet she has run over today's trip and going and returns after 156 days off. Carrying 163 lb off an official mark of 95, she is winless in her last five, so the weight is a hurdle.
Form last 6450P-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
60SR96RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Fourth last time out after a run of eighth, eighth and ninth, No Big Deal is back within 11 days and has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 98 ranks him third of 18. The risk is 163 lb, a hefty burden for a gelding yet to win in his last five starts.
Form last 6098-84
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR98RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tuckmill steps up on a third last time out, just 24 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going before, while carrying 162 lb. Our top-rated runner at 105 is yet to win in recent starts, but he looks the one to beat.
Form last 670-P73
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
77SR105RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
You Done Well comes here fresh from a run 18 days ago and has twice finished third in his last five starts, while he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 98 ranks him fourth of 18, but he is yet to win in that spell and a pulled-up effort two starts back is the worry.
Form last 6-433P6
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR98RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
G N Jefferson comes here fresh from a third last time out, just 12 days ago, and has run over today's distance and going before, but he is yet to win in his last five starts. A trainer on 1/32 and 159 lb under an official mark of 91 temper the appeal, while our rating of 86 ranks him 12th of 18.
Form last 6-09673
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR86RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Datzdjazz is hard to fancy: she was beaten in a ninth last time out, is winless in her last three starts, and returns after 288 days off. Carrying 158 lb off an official mark of 92 doesn't help, and our rating of 40 ranks her 17th of 18.
Form last 6809-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR40RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Without a win in his last six outings, Las Brisas Boy has still finished second, three and four starts back, and has run over today's trip and going, though two sixths since leave him in need of a sharper showing off 155 lb after just eight days.
Form last 6592266
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR87RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Soldier Saint turned out quickly after a fourth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going, but he is winless in his last six and was only eighth three starts back. Carrying 155 lb off 87, he looks a solid midfield type, with our rating of 92 putting him seventh of 18.
Form last 6054864
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR92RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fit after 11 days off, Hidalgo Des Mottes has run over today's trip and on this going, and was fifth last time out, with a second three starts back his best finish lately. He's yet to win in his last five starts and carries 154 lb off 86, while our rating of 90 has him ninth of 18.
Form last 65-8295
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR90RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dunany Point is yet to win in his last six, with a second two starts back his best effort, but he was pulled up last time out just seven days ago, and that quick turnaround is a worry. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 89 sits above his official 85.
Form last 6P37C2P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR89RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Me Wee Nanny Fran is yet to win in his last five starts, with a pulled up last time out following four unplaced efforts, so he arrives lightly raced on evidence and open to improvement. He's back after 18 days and carries 150 lb off an official mark of 84.
Form last 600-00P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR—RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Winless in her last five, Trixaboutmaisie has finished unplaced last time out, then a seventh two starts back, and an eighth five runs ago, while an 82-day break raises fitness questions. She has run on today's going and our rating of 76 ranks her 14th of 18, so she's hard to fancy.
Form last 6870-70
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR76RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last five and ranked 13 of 18 on our figures, Leo Messy is hard to fancy, though a fourth last time out and a third two starts back show he is not out of form. He has run over today's trip and going, and 24 days since his last run is fine.
Form last 600-834
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR80RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
How Decc returns after 376 days off, having been pulled up last time out, and is yet to win in his last four starts, though a third three starts back shows some ability. He has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 92 sits well above his official 77, and he carries 145 lb.
Form last 6430/P-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR92RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Mount Hotham is winless in his last five, with unplaced efforts last time out and four starts back, and a sixth three starts back his best finish of late. He has run on today's going and is fresh from nine days ago, but carrying 140 lb off 72, he is hard to fancy.
Form last 6-90690
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR70RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
The Border Boy is hard to fancy, having finished eighth last time out and pulled up three starts back, and he is winless in his last five. He has run over today's trip and on this going, and a quick nine-day turnaround keeps him fit, but 140 lb and a ranking of 15 of 18 on our figures leave plenty to prove.
Form last 6-04P58
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR72RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Soldier Saint owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Paul W FlynnDanny Gilligan
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
No Big Deal
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Charles O'Brien✓ Value Signal
Bearami Creek
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Peter Fahey◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Gatehouse Boy (SR:75, 14/1) is the standout market mover in the field — a 38% inward move is the single most aggressive steaming signal across all 18 runners and represents meaningful market confidence in a wide-open €6,000 heat. Carrying 11-12 is a concern, but his SR of 75 is competitive relative to the field's general mediocrity, and the MarkMv:+6 is modest enough not to be punitive. With DistFit:? and GoingFit:? he's unproven at the trip and going, but the money arriving at 14/1 is buying into something the data doesn't fully show — that's worth following when no rival presents a clearly superior case. P J Rothwell's 8% strike rate is workmanlike, but the 38% market move into 14/1 outweighs that caution.
Each-way alternative: No Big Deal.
Main danger: No Big Deal — No Big Deal (SR:86, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by some margin, carries Mark Walsh — the field's top jockey at 21% career strike rate — and at 7/2 holds favouritism, meaning the market already makes it the most likely winner despite GoingFit:- being a genuine caveat.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads /10P-5 — a pull-up in recent starts and a fifth last time out; no win or placed finish to justify market confidence at this level.
Jockey Mr R Sugrue (claim 7lb) has a 5% strike rate from 85 rides — well below field average and a significant riding concern at 14/1 in an 18-runner heat.
Trainer P J Rothwell at 8% and both DistFit and GoingFit unknown means Gatehouse Boy is essentially unproven at today's trip and going with a handler who rarely fires — the steam may be uninformed.
Top weight of 11-12 is the joint-heaviest in the field; with rivals such as No Big Deal (SR:86) and Soldier Saint (SR:84) carrying significantly less, the weight disadvantage is material in a competi…
ShortlistGatehouse Boy, No Big Deal, Soldier Saint, Leo Messy