Hereford 16:05 RESULTED
Class 5 13 Oct 2026

Last Tuesday tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race · 2m3f147y

Official Result

tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Barafundle Bay (GB) Adam Wedge · Christian Williams
    8/1
  2. 4/1
  3. 11/2
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Leicester

13:24–17:17 · 8 races

Punchestown

13:35–17:40 · 8 races

Hereford

13:45–16:38 · 6 races

Southwell

14:00–17:23 · 7 races

Wolverhampton (AW)

16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Mahon Falls silks
Mahon Falls
Age 5 · 12-0
2337-3
100
69
103
5
12-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 10/1 14/1
Mahon Falls is consistently in the frame, with a third last time out, a third four starts back and a second five starts back, and she is the top-ranked runner on our figures at 103 against an official mark of 100. The one concern is a 149-day layoff under 168 lb.
AI verdict

SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

2
Miracles Do Happen silks
Miracles Do Happen
Age 5 · 11-11
1-8P81
97
88
100
5
11-11
★★★☆☆
—
3/1 2/1 3/1
Winner last time out and again five starts back, Miracles Do Happen arrives fresh from a 21-day break and has run over today's trip and going before, which underpins our preference. A burden of 165 lb is the one reservation.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Siorai silks
Siorai
Age 4 · 11-8
226-42
96
88
94
4
11-8
★★☆☆☆
—
5/1 3/1 9/2
Siorai arrives in cracking nick, second last time out and runner-up in three of her last five, so she is a consistent threat after a 23-day break. Yet to win in that spell, though, and 162 lb is a hefty burden to carry.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Lady Dapple Rose silks
Lady Dapple Rose FAV
Age 5 · 11-5
835-F9
91
87
98
5
11-5
★★★☆☆
—
3/1 11/4 5/2
Lady Dapple Rose is yet to win in her last five starts, but a third four starts back shows she can bob up, and 28 days since her last run suggests she'll be fresh. Our rating of 98 sits well above her official 91, though a ninth last time out and a fall before that are the concern under 159 lb.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Zaraquelle silks
Zaraquelle
Age 4 · 11-3
42-
91
86
90
4
11-3
★★☆☆☆
—
9/2 11/4 4/1
Zaraquelle was second last time out, and a fourth two starts back, so she is yet to win in her last two starts; 77 days off is a concern, and 157 lb is a hefty burden from an official rating of 91. Our rating of 90 puts her fifth of seven.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Barafundle Bay silks
Barafundle Bay
Age 5 · 10-5
4-7804
77
78
88
5
10-5
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 10/1 13/2
Winless in her last five, Barafundle Bay was fourth last time out, 21 days ago, but before that came an unplaced run, an eighth and a seventh, and 145 lb is a big ask off 77. She has run over this trip and on this going, yet ranks sixth of seven on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Yanka Blue silks
Yanka Blue
Age 5 · 10-5
227P44
77
83
82
5
10-5
★★☆☆☆
—
11/2 11/2 5/1
Yanka Blue has finished fourth in her last two starts and is winless in her last six, with a pulled up three starts back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, and a second five starts back shows she can go close, but our figures rank her last of seven.
AI verdict

SR 83 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Mahon Falls 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 20/1 open 12.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 Bet365
2 Miracles Do Happen 3/1 open 3.00 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.00 3/1 open 3.00 10/3 open 3.00 10/3 open 3.50 10/3 William Hill
3 Siorai 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.33 9/2 open 4.33 5/1 open 4.33 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 Bet365
4 Lady Dapple Rose 3/1 open 6.00 3/1 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 11/4 open 5.50 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 Bet365
5 Zaraquelle 9/2 4/1 open 3.75 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 open 5.50 9/2 Bet365
6 Barafundle Bay 9/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 12.00 13/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 11.00 17/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 12.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Yanka Blue 11/2 open 13.00 6/1 open 12.00 5/1 open 12.00 5/1 open 12.00 11/2 open 12.00 5/1 open 6.50 6/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Lady Dapple Rose

Speculative

Lady Dapple Rose owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 Ben Pauling Beau Morgan(5)
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Siorai

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Harry Derham
✓ Value Signal

Mahon Falls

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

20/1 · Katy Price
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Lady Dapple Rose
57.2 3/1
2 3. Siorai
56.9 5/1
3 7. Yanka Blue
55.0 11/2
4 2. Miracles Do Happen
54.4 3/1
5 5. Zaraquelle
51.5 9/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Lady Dapple Rose
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 5 · 11-11
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 5 · 11-5
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 4 · 11-3
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾 —

SR 86 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 4 · 11-8
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 5 · 10-5
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 5 · 10-5
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 5 · 12-0
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lady Dapple Rose
Confidence: Speculative

Lady Dapple Rose (SR:87, 10/3) is the standout value pick here. She carries the lightest competitive weight at 11-5 among the top-rated trio, and critically is the only runner showing genuine market confidence — a 17% inward move (Mkt:in17%) in a field where four others are drifting significantly. Her trainer Ben Pauling (17% strike rate from 711 runners) books Beau Morgan, a 5lb claimer who brings a 17% strike rate of his own, meaning the effective weight is closer to 10-14, a real advantage. The most recent F in her form (835-F9) warrants scrutiny, but the market's deliberate move toward her — against the grain of the field — suggests connections are confident she's past that incident and ready to perform at this Class 5 level where she remains on the same mark. Each-way alternative: Yanka Blue. Main danger: Yanka Blue — Yanka Blue (SR:83, 4/1) has shortened 56% in the market — the most dramatic inward move in the field — carries a featherweight 10-5, and has confirmed good-to-firm form (GoingFit:+), all of which the market is clearly reacting to despite a poor distance record (DistFit:-).

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 835-F9 shows a fall followed by a finishing position of 9 — two consecutive poor runs suggest she is out of form, not simply recovering from the fall incident.
  • Miracles Do Happen and Siorai both carry superior SRs (88 vs 87) and are fresher in form; Siorai ran just 23 days ago, Lady Dapple Rose 28 days after a fall — stamina and confidence over jumps may st…
  • Yanka Blue shows a 56% inward market move, far eclipsing Lady Dapple Rose's 17% move — if market confidence is the key argument, the stronger money is actually landing on Yanka Blue at 4/1.
  • The 5lb claimer Beau Morgan brings a modest 135-ride sample at 17%; with a horse that fell last time out, jockey experience and jump-for-jump security matter more than weight allowance at this track.
Shortlist Lady Dapple Rose, Miracles Do Happen, Yanka Blue, Siorai
Each-way: Yanka Blue Danger: Yanka Blue

🗺 The Course Class 5

2m3f147y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Hereford Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade