Hereford 13:45 RESULTED
Class 4 13 Oct 2026

Last Tuesday Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race) · 2m0f53y

Official Result

Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Blue Topaz (GB) Jack Hogan · Fergal O'Brien
    2/1
  2. 1/2F
  3. 16/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

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16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 5 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Blue Topaz silks
Blue Topaz
Age 6 · 11-4
41P-73
100
105
100OR
6
11-4
★★★★☆
—
2/1 Evs 7/4
Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

2
Miss Denver silks
Miss Denver FAV
Age 6 · 11-4
432222
86
101
86OR
6
11-4
★★★★☆
—
4/7 Evs 2/5
Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
Upton Fern silks
Upton Fern
Age 5 · 11-4
50
—
123
—
5
11-4
★★☆☆☆
—
66/1 16/1 28/1
SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Vajra silks
Vajra
Age 7 · 11-4
—
—
133
—
7
11-4
★★☆☆☆
—
20/1 8/1 17/2
SR 133 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 133 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Esther Spring silks
Esther Spring
Age 4 · 11-3
8-6735
—
142
—
4
11-3
★★★☆☆
—
14/1 7/1 11/1
SR 142 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 142 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Blue Topaz 2/1 open 2.38 7/4 open 2.00 2/1 open 2.20 2/1 open 2.20 2/1 open 2.20 2/1 open 2.25 2/1 Bet365
2 Miss Denver 4/7 open 2.00 8/13 open 2.75 2/5 open 2.25 2/5 open 2.25 4/7 open 2.25 4/7 open 2.10 8/13 Paddy Power
3 Upton Fern 66/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 23.00 66/1 Bet365
4 Vajra 20/1 16/1 open 9.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 15/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 20/1 Bet365
5 Esther Spring 14/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 10.00 14/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Miss Denver

Live signal

Miss Denver owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/7 Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Esther Spring

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

14/1 · Christian Williams
✓ Value Signal

Upton Fern

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Debra Hamer
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +21.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
97 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +21.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Miss Denver
65.7 4/7
2 5. Esther Spring
64.3 14/1
3 1. Blue Topaz
58.7 2/1
4 4. Vajra
57.0 20/1
5 3. Upton Fern
49.2 66/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Miss Denver
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 6 · 11-4
4/7
★★★★☆ SR 101 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

1
Age 6 · 11-4
2/1
★★★★☆ SR 105 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Age 4 · 11-3
14/1
★★★☆☆ SR 142 🐾 —

SR 142 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 7 · 11-4
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 133 🐾 —

SR 133 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Miss Denver
Confidence: Medium

Miss Denver (SR 101, 4/5) is the standout selection despite a slightly lower SR than some rivals, because multiple signals align emphatically in her favour. The market has steamed in 22% from opening, reflecting strong confidence from connections — Sam Twiston-Davies (17% career strike rate, 1023 runners) is a top booking for the Twiston-Davies yard (14% SR). Her form string of 432222 shows consistent, reliable placed efforts suggesting she is knocking hard on the door in this class and the maiden tag could fall here. The field is weak — only five runners — and her two closest market rivals carry significant negatives that are not present on her line. Each-way alternative: Blue Topaz. Main danger: Blue Topaz — Blue Topaz (SR 105, 7/4) is the second-shortest price and Fergal O'Brien's yard at 15% strike rate is solid, but the 15% market drift and a recent form line of 73 after a pull-up (P) are specific concerns — if that drift proves wrong and she recaptures earlier form, she is the only other runner with market relevance.

Case against 4 clamped
  • SR of 101 is the second-lowest in the field; Blue Topaz (SR 105) and Upton Fern (SR 123) both carry higher ability ratings, meaning Miss Denver may simply lack the raw ceiling to win even in a weak f…
  • Form string 432222 reveals a horse that has finished second four times consecutively — a pattern of near-misses can indicate a horse that lacks the finishing kick to convert when it matters, not one…
  • 36 days since last run is a mildly extended absence for a horse that has never won; with no obvious prep run, she may need the race to peak, especially if rivals like Esther Spring (ran just 7 days a…
  • Blue Topaz at 7/4 has a higher SR (105) and trainer Fergal O'Brien hits 15% strike rate — a material rival whose drift of 15% out may reflect a market over-reacting to a single piece of form rather t…
Shortlist Miss Denver, Blue Topaz, Esther Spring
Each-way: Blue Topaz Danger: Blue Topaz

🗺 The Course Class 4

2m0f53y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
5 Confirmed runners
Hereford Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade