Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m1f0y
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 122 backed by market confidence at 9/4 — a genuine contender.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 119 backed by market confidence at 10/3 — a genuine contender.
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Le Roi Du Livet | — | 5/1 | — | — | — | — | 5/1 Paddy Power |
| 1 Belladaball | 17/2 open 4.00 | 12/1 open 4.50 | 12/1 open 4.00 | 12/1 open 4.00 | 11/1 open 4.00 | 12/1 open 4.00 | 12/1 Paddy Power |
| 2 Lips Freedom | 6/5 open 3.25 | 11/10 open 3.25 | 11/10 open 3.00 | 11/10 open 3.00 | 1/1 open 3.00 | evn open 3.00 | 6/5 Bet365 |
| 3 Cocofred | 5/1 open 5.50 | 9/2 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Firebrand | 4/1 open 4.50 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 3/1 open 4.50 | 3/1 open 4.50 | 7/2 | 7/2 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Celtic Alliance | 17/2 open 6.50 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 9/1 open 7.50 | 17/2 open 7.50 | 10/1 Paddy Power |
| 7 Rosenborg | 16/1 open 21.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 14/1 | 14/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 8 No Mon No Fun | 25/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 open 34.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 28/1 open 26.00 | 20/1 open 26.00 | 25/1 | 28/1 Coral |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Celtic Alliance owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (61). There is still enough pricing upside to keep the pick from looking overexposed. The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 122 backed by market confidence at 9/4 — a genuine contender.
SR 119 backed by market confidence at 10/3 — a genuine contender.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Celtic Alliance (SR:154) is the standout on ability in this field, carrying just 11-3 — a full 11lb less than top-weight Belladaball — and is trained by Gordon Elliott (18% career strike rate) with Jack Kennedy in the saddle (22% career strike rate), the strongest connections combination in the race. The market has shortened 7% since opening, confirming quiet confidence from the yard. The 164-day absence is a concern and distance/going are unproven (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?), but Elliott and Kennedy routinely debut returning novices off a long break with purpose, and the SR advantage of 11 points over the next-best runner (Belladaball at 143) is substantial at this level. Good ground suits a young progressive type, and at 6/1 there is genuine value against the SR and connections profile. Each-way alternative: Lips Freedom. Main danger: Lips Freedom — Lips Freedom (SR:122, 9/4) is the market leader, has run recently (15 days), and carries a manageable 11-12 — but a MarkMv:+14 means it is running off a mark 14lb above its last win, which is a significant ask for a horse trained by an 8% strike-rate handler in a yard without obvious marquee support.