Kelso 14:55 RESULTED
Class 4 4 Oct 2026

Sunday 4 October Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) · 2m0f51y

1 cub picking Leading: Tuppence (100%) Join the pack
Official Result

Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Tuppence (FR) Mr Lucas Murphy · Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
    8/13F
  2. 4/1
  3. 3/1
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Settled
  • 4 declared
  • 1 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Brosna Town silks
Brosna Town
Age 5 · 11-2
47-255
104
99
104OR
5
11-2
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 4/1 5/1
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Tuppence silks
Tuppence
Age 6 · 11-2
8/241-
112
121
112OR
6
11-2
★★★★☆
1
1/2 1/2 2/5
Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
Miss Arabella silks
Miss Arabella
Age 8 · 10-9
26237/
88
78
88OR
8
10-9
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 12/1 14/1
SR 78 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Luna Grace silks
Luna Grace
Age 4 · 10-8
333-33
96
99
96OR
4
10-8
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 3/1 9/2
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Brosna Town 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 William Hill
2 Tuppence 1/2 open 1.62 2/5 open 1.50 4/9 open 1.57 4/9 open 1.57 1/2 open 1.57 2/5 open 1.57 1/2 Bet365
3 Miss Arabella 18/1 open 23.00 14/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 13.00 18/1 Bet365
4 Luna Grace 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 open 4.33 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Tuppence

Live signal

Tuppence owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (67) and market confidence (98). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

1/2 Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Mr Lucas Murphy(7)
78% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Brosna Town

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Jessica Bedi
✓ Value Signal

Miss Arabella

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

18/1 · Sandy Thomson
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
67 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +25.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
98 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +21.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +5.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 4 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Tuppence
64.4 1/2
2 1. Brosna Town
58.8 5/1
3 4. Luna Grace
54.9 9/2
4 3. Miss Arabella
44.9 18/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Tuppence
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
Crowd leader Tuppence is carrying 100% of the Cub vote right now.
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
1

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 6 · 11-2
1/2
★★★★☆ SR 121 🐾 1

Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

4
Age 4 · 10-8
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾 —

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 5 · 11-2
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾 —

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 8 · 10-9
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Tuppence
Confidence: Medium

Tuppence (SR 121) stands clear of every rival on ability — a 22-point SR advantage over the next-best Brosna Town and Luna Grace (both SR 99) is a decisive gap in a four-runner novice hurdle. The market is equally emphatic: 4/11 and shortening 14% since opening reflects strong confidence from connections who also have Luna Grace in the race but have clearly subordinated the stable interest (Derek Fox, an 11% strike-rate rider, was available for Luna Grace yet the yard deployed him there rather than on Tuppence, where the conditional Mr Lucas Murphy holds the ride — a common pattern when the trainer wants the secondary runner to hunt a place, not challenge for the win). Brosna Town's MarkMv of +24 and DistFit:- make it a near-certain non-factor. Tuppence's hurdling form (Form: 8/241-) shows a recent finishing effort that merits respect in this weak class-4 novice heat. Each-way alternative: Luna Grace. Main danger: Luna Grace — Luna Grace (SR 99) has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at today's course (Course:W0P1), carries the lightest weight in the field at 10-8, and the consistent Form:333-33 suggests she will at minimum stay competitive if Tuppence meets any jumping difficulty on her hurdling return.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads '8/241-' — the trailing dash indicates a pull-up or fall on most recent start, meaning Tuppence has not completed a race last time out and its jumping reliability is unproven heading into…
  • Trainer combination Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore has only a 6% strike-rate from 324 runners — a weak yard conversion rate that undermines the confidence suggested by the market move.
  • Luna Grace has drifted 50% in the market despite stable support, suggesting connections have not backed Tuppence as aggressively as the headline 4/11 implies — internal stable money may be split or a…
  • Conditional jockey Mr Lucas Murphy (17% from only 24 rides) is very lightly experienced; in a novice hurdle where jumping errors are likely, limited race-reading under pressure is a real risk on a ho…
Shortlist Tuppence, Luna Grace, Brosna Town
Each-way: Luna Grace Danger: Luna Grace

🗺 The Course Class 4

2m0f51y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
4 Confirmed runners
Kelso Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade