Keep Em Quite sets a solid standard with a second three starts back and a fourth two runs ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before. He comes here after 30 days off, though he was unplaced last time and is yet to win in recent starts.
Form last 65-5240
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR99RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Nolans Rocco has the profile of a mid-pack mare: she won three starts back and was second four starts back, but she was seventh last time out and pulled up two starts back. She has run over today's trip and going, and 164 lb is a hefty burden off an official mark of 96, which holds her back, with our rating of 90 putting her seventh of 15.
Form last 6P21P-7
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR90RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kilkee Bay won four starts back and was a second three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating ranks him fourth of 15. The risk is a clear one: he unseated last time out and again six starts back, and he returns after 45 days carrying 162 lb.
Form last 6U8125U
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR97RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Our top-rated runner at 104 against an official 91, King Ferdinand has run over today's trip and going and is fit after just eight days off, but he was unplaced last time and pulled up in three of his last five, so the big 159 lb burden is the concern.
Form last 6/P0PP0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
56SR104RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Barryroe Madam is winless in her last six, with a fifth two starts back and a fourth four starts back the best of it, though she has run over today's trip and on this going and is fresh from a run eight days ago. Carrying 154 lb off 86, she needs to improve, even if our rating of 90 hints at a little in hand.
Form last 6004050
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR90RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Cullenwaine was beaten into seventh last time out, and he is 37 days since that run, though a second two starts back and a win three starts back show he can go well. He has run over today's trip and going, but 154 lb off 86 and an 11th-of-15 ranking on our figures make him hard to fancy.
Form last 6254127
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
85SR81RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ellens Pride has been busy, back after just ten days, and has run over today's trip and going, but she's yet to win in her last six starts, with a fourth two starts back her best recent effort. Carrying 154 lb off 86, she looks a midfield type, with our rating of 84 ranking her ninth of 15.
Form last 64P7640
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR84RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Zolpharine has failed to win in his last four, a fifth last time out followed by two unplaced runs, and he's back quickly after just four days, so he's hard to fancy. Carrying 154 lb off an official rating of 86 doesn't help either, though he has won twice in his last six and has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6114005
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR80RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pulled up last time out and twice more in his last five, Avec Espoir is winless in recent starts, yet he has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 98 ranks him third of 15 against an official 85. The risk is plain: he carries 153 lb and has not completed with any conviction lately.
Form last 6P00-PP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR98RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Pulled up last time out and without a win in her last six starts, It's Time Again has plenty to prove, though she has run over today's trip and going before and a 41-day break gives her a fresh slate. Carrying 153 lb off 85, she looks a midfielder on our rating of 89, ranked eighth of 15.
Form last 60PF89P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR89RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Joe's Turn arrives winless in his last five, with sixths in his last two runs and a second five starts back as his best effort, though a 44-day break is a mild question. He has run over today's trip and going and is rated 85 officially, and carries 153 lb.
Form last 62F-866
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR83RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
True Harmony is yet to win in his last five starts, with a fifth last time out and two sixths before that, so he is hard to fancy after 37 days off. He has run over today's trip and going and was second four starts back, but 150 lb is a big burden, and our rating of 79 ranks him 13th of 15.
Form last 6-92665
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR79RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Kilashee is winless in her last five, pulled up three times with a seventh two starts back and another seventh five starts back, and she's quick to return after six days. She has run over today's trip and going and our rating of 90 ranks her fifth of 15, but 146 lb is a hefty burden.
Form last 67-PP7P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR91RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Backinabit has been beaten in each of his last four runs, finishing seventh last time out, a fifth two starts back, then a ninth and an eighth, so the win five starts back looks a long way off. He has run on today's going and is back after 15 days, but 144 lb and a ranking of 14 of 15 on our figures make him hard to fancy.
Form last 6P18957
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
70SR75RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five, he finished eighth last time out and eighth again two starts back, so he is hard to fancy off 144 lb. He has run over today's trip and going and is fresh after 37 days, but our rating of 72 ranks him last of 15.
Form last 606-088
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR72RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Kilkee Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (68). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/1E McNamaraMr J Dunne(7)
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Cullenwaine
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · David O'Sullivan✓ Value Signal
King Ferdinand
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Eugene M O'Sullivan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Zolpharine (SR:75, 17/2) is the standout selection driven by a dramatic 34% market move in — the strongest steamer in the field by a considerable margin — which in a competitive 15-runner handicap chase signals meaningful stable/market confidence. As John Patrick Ryan's #1 runner (Kilashee at SR:49 with a 24% drift is clearly the yard's second string), Zolpharine also carries a light 11-0 and has Course:W0P4 at Killarney, confirming this track suits. Although DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flag distance and going concerns on raw record, the market money at this price overrides statistical hesitation — the connections clearly believe conditions are workable today. At 17/2 with that level of support, the SR-to-weight ratio also compares favourably against the top-rated Cullenwaine (SR:85) who carries the same weight but has DistFit:- and GoingFit:- with a drifting market.
Each-way alternative: Cullenwaine.
Main danger: Cullenwaine — Cullenwaine holds the field's best SR (85) off a light 11-0, and a recent form figure of 7 from form 254127 is forgiven easily — the prior '1' and '2' show genuine ability and at 9/2 the market has not fully abandoned this horse despite the going and distance flags.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads 114005 — the last three runs are 0, 0, 5, meaning Zolpharine has completely lost the thread since its winning burst and was beaten a combined large distance in those efforts.
Course:W0P4 at Killarney is a double-edged stat — four prior visits without a win suggests the track may not suit as well as implied; placed but never sealed the deal here.
DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are both flagged with only 4 days since last run, raising a real concern that today's trip/ground combination is untested territory for a horse out of form.
Cullenwaine (SR:85) carries the same 11-0 but is rated 10 points higher, is shorter in the market at 9/2, and posted a '7' last time out — sharper recent form than Zolpharine's consecutive zeros.
ShortlistZolpharine, Cullenwaine, True Harmony, Keep Em Quite