Eastwatch is our top-rated runner, and while he is yet to win in his last five starts, a second four starts back shows his ability and he has run over today's trip and going before. Fresh enough after 21 days, he sits well clear on our rating of 109 against an official 98, though recent form has tailed off.
Form last 65-2780
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR109RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Benevento banked a win three starts back and a second two starts back, so he arrives after 22 days off with sound recent form and has run over today's trip before. Our rating of 99 ranks him third of 12, but he was unplaced last time out and carries 139 lb from stall eight.
Form last 6-73120
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR99RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Cristal Clere is a leading danger, having won four starts back and returning just 12 days after a fifth last time out, with experience of today's trip and going. Our rating of 101 is five clear of his official 96, though the main risk is a pair of modest efforts, a sixth and a ninth, in the middle of his recent form.
Form last 651-965
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
71SR101RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Truth Be Told won twice in his last five starts, a winner three starts back and again four starts back, and a second two starts back confirms he's in good heart, having also run over today's trip and going. The risk is a sixth last time out, and he carries 132 lb from stall six.
Form last 641-126
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR93RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Final Voyage has run over today's trip and going, and a second two starts back shows he can still pick up a cheque, but an eighth last time out and a 36-day break leave questions. Our rating of 93 sits above his official 88, though carrying 130 lb from stall five makes this a fair test.
Form last 6717028
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR93RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Johnny Soda was third last time out, and he has won twice in his last six, a winner four starts back and five starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before after 21 days off. Carrying 128 lb off an official mark of 90 from draw 4, though, our rating of 87 puts him eighth of twelve.
Form last 6711203
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR87RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Lady Lilac has been unplaced last time out, though she was third two starts back, and she is yet to win in her last six outings; a 68-day break is a question. She has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 93 sits well above her official 85, but 127 lb from draw 10 is a big ask.
Form last 6355730
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR93RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Retracement is winless in his last five, with a fourth two starts back his best finish, and he was unplaced last time out 21 days ago. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 88 sits above his official 85, but he needs to improve to land a blow from stall nine at 127 lb.
Form last 60-6740
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR89RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to win in his last five starts, Iamimmaculate was second last time out, 13 days ago, and has been second twice more, so he gets placed without quite finishing the job. He has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him ninth of 12, which makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 62-4262
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR87RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Fresh from a win last time out and just 18 days since that run, Noble Honour has placed finishes behind her, and she has run over today's trip; but a sixth two starts back and our rating of 78, 11th of 12, against an official 84 make her hard to fancy off 122 lb.
Form last 62-3261
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR78RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Won last time out and was second two starts back, so the form is sound and he's fresh from 13 days ago, having run over today's trip and going. Even so, our rating of 77 ranks him last of 12 and the weight of 120 lb from stall 12 makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 6200421
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR77RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Galileo Noir has finished fifth in each of his last two runs, and a win three starts back is his best recent effort, while a trainer going 1/21 does not help. He has run over today's trip and going, and is back quickly after 12 days, but our rating of 81 ranks him tenth of 12.
Form last 67-3155
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
81SR81RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Johnny Soda owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (52) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Adrian McGuinnessAdam Caffrey
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Iamimmaculate
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · G. O'Leary✓ Value Signal
Final Voyage
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · J. P. Murtagh◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Truth Be Told holds the highest SR in the field at 95, carries a workable 9-6, and the market has gently firmed (Mkt:in5%) despite a MarkMv:+10 penalty — suggesting connections and the market believe there is more improvement in this 4-year-old. W. J. Lee's booking (15% career strike rate, 1896 runners — the strongest jockey record in this field) adds significant weight to the selection. The GoingFit:- is a concern, but at 11/2 the SR advantage of 6+ points over the next-best contender and the positive market drift outweigh it. The form line 41-126 shows a recent second and a win earlier in the campaign, confirming consistent competitiveness at this level.
Each-way alternative: Noble Honour.
Main danger: Johnny Soda — Johnny Soda (SR:94, 9/2) is the only horse in the field with confirmed GoingFit:+ AND DistFit:+, meaning today's conditions genuinely suit, and despite a MarkMv:+10 penalty his 3-year-old allowance and course form (W0P1) keep him dangerous at a price where the market drift (Mkt:out19%) may be overdone.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
GoingFit:- is a concrete flag that today's ground is not ideal for Truth Be Told, and the Curragh can be testing in October — this is not a minor quibble given the form line includes recent runs that…
MarkMv:+10 penalty is the maximum shown in this field, meaning the handicapper has aggressively reassessed Truth Be Told upward; the 9-6 weight is now the joint-highest burden in a field where rivals…
Johnny Soda (SR:94, 9/2 market leader) is almost identical in SR yet carries 6lb less and is a 3-year-old getting the age/weight allowance — a materially lighter rival of near-equal rating is a direc…
Trainer M C Grassick strikes at only 9% (402 runners), the weakest trainer strike rate among the leading fancies, and the modest 5% market move in does not compensate for a handler whose conversion r…
ShortlistTruth Be Told, Johnny Soda, Iamimmaculate, Noble Honour