Winless in his last six starts, Impressor nonetheless holds a clear edge on ratings over his 12 rivals and has experience of today's trip and conditions; drawn 12 carrying 135 lb, the concern is a dip in recent form, but six days on from his last run he arrives fresh enough to confirm that superiority.
Form last 6063608
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR68RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Bibendum won three starts back but has since posted a sixth and a fifth, and with his trainer firing at just 5% in the past fortnight he faces a stiff task, though he has run over today's trip and going and returns after a 22-day break with experience on his side.
Form last 6450165
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR60RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and off the track for 52 days, Hvar faces a stiff ask, though he has run over today's distance and going before and draws stall one carrying 133 lb.
Form last 6-00709
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR60RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Without Flaw arrives on the back of a win last time out, which gives her a clear fitness and form boost, though her record in recent starts also includes several mid-to-rear finishes that temper expectations; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 132 lb from stall 7 are the key variables to weigh.
Form last 6747761
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR60RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Harry Mole has been a model of consistency in recent starts, placing in four of his last five completed efforts including thirds last time out and two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before; the concern is that he remains yet to win in his last six starts.
Form last 6052233
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
66SR62RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Opal Storm showed she can win, landing a victory four starts back, but a fourth last time out and a lean recent spell — including an eighth and ninth in her last six starts — temper confidence, and her quick three-day turnaround adds further doubt at 130 lb from stall six.
Form last 6081894
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR57RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Never Dark nonetheless showed clear ability when second two starts back, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions; the main risk is whether he can reproduce that form from stall 13 carrying 130 lb.
Form last 6-66726
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR62RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked well adrift of the field on our figures, Crafty Spirit faces a stiff ask here, and his official mark of 54 does little to encourage; third last time out at least suggests some recent consistency, though, and he has experience of today's trip and going.
Form last 67-2113
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR56RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fourth last time and well held ninth two starts back, Supremissy faces a stiff task ranked tenth of thirteen on our figures, though she does bring distance and going experience to the table and a win three starts back shows she can find the winner's enclosure.
Form last 6-93194
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR57RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked second of 13 on our rating, Keep The Gold arrives on a quick 19-day turnaround with experience of today's distance and going in his favour, and a fourth three starts back hints at better lurking; winless in his last five starts, however, and the 129 lb burden from stall 14 is the key concern.
Form last 6-25497
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR63RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts, Kyber Crystal has shown little to suggest she can reverse that trend from stall 11 carrying 124 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and our rating edges above her official mark.
Form last 6050557
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR55RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Royal Duke is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns just three days after his latest outing.
Form last 6756507
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
40SR51RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Harry Mole owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Steph HollinsheadDougie Costello
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Crafty Spirit
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
15/2 · John Wainwright✓ Value Signal
Hvar
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · John & Sean Quinn◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Harry Mole (SR:66, 4/1) is the clear class leader in this field — his SR of 66 is the highest by 5 points over Crafty Spirit (SR:61) and he is the only runner combining DistFit:+ AND GoingFit:+ at today's 5f on good ground. His form of 052233 shows consistent place involvement at this class level, and Carlisle's sharp 5f track rewards horses who handle the going well — he does exactly that. Trainer Steph Hollinshead's 5% strike rate is a mild concern, but Dougie Costello (7%) is an experienced northern claimer who knows the track, and critically there is no market drift — the 4/1 holds without shortening or lengthening, suggesting quiet confidence. The weight of 9-5 is manageable, sitting mid-field in the handicap with no punishing top-weight burden.
Each-way alternative: Kyber Crystal.
Main danger: Keep The Gold — Keep The Gold has steamed in 30% from its opening price, jockey Connor Beasley posts a 15% career strike rate, and the 9-3 weight is lenient for an SR of 57 — the market move is the strongest single signal in the race and demands respect even though the DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are genuine concerns.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Trainer Steph Hollinshead's 5% strike rate (98 runners) is notably poor — only 1 in 20 runners wins, making it statistically hard to trust even a class-leader from this yard.
Jockey Dougie Costello's 7% strike rate across 177 rides is below-par for a northern claimer; no market support (odds unmoved at 4/1) suggests insiders see no particular confidence today.
Form of 052233 shows Harry Mole has not won in 6 consecutive starts — consistent placing but a horse that keeps getting beaten, raising questions about his ability to convert under today's conditions.
Keep The Gold (SR:57) has been backed in sharply by 30% with a capable 15%-strike jockey (Connor Beasley), suggesting market intelligence points away from Harry Mole despite his superior SR.
ShortlistHarry Mole, Kyber Crystal, Keep The Gold, Never Dark