Paul Kavanagh Memorial AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Jockeys With Three Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season) · 1m1f
SR 60 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 72 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
SR 67 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 60 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
SR 56 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Titian | 9/1 open 9.50 | 8/1 | 17/2 open 9.00 | 17/2 open 9.00 | 17/2 open 9.00 | 17/2 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Up The Jazz | 4/1 open 9.50 | 7/2 open 9.00 | 7/2 open 9.00 | 7/2 open 9.00 | 7/2 open 9.00 | 7/2 open 7.00 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Sanafi Zabeel | 15/8 open 2.63 | 2/1 open 2.88 | 2/1 open 2.75 | 2/1 open 2.75 | 2/1 open 2.75 | 9/4 open 3.00 | 9/4 Betfred |
| 4 Pedro The Poet | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Epidavros | 9/2 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 6 Spirit Catcher | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.50 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 5/1 open 5.50 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Eagles Dream | 20/1 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 | 16/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Jewel Maker | 15/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 7/1 open 7.00 | 15/2 Bet365 |
| 9 On The Bubble | 16/1 open 23.00 | 14/1 open 34.00 | 14/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 29.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Up The Jazz owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (40) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 72 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 67 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 56 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 60 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Up The Jazz (SR:72, 5/1, 11-4) leads the field on ability and is the subject of a dramatic 32% market move in, the strongest steaming in the field by some margin — money that is meaningful in an amateur jockeys' handicap. The form string 361275 reads right-to-left as a recent 5th, then 7th, then 2nd, 1, 6, 3 — the last win is live and the horse is on the same mark (+4) as that success, suggesting connections feel it is well-placed. Course:W1P1 at Carlisle adds a specialist edge rarely available in a 9-runner field at this level, and GoingFit:~ confirms the good ground is not a concern. The 32% steam combined with top SR and course form is a compelling multi-signal case. Each-way alternative: Sanafi Zabeel. Main danger: Sanafi Zabeel — Sanafi Zabeel (SR:70, 9/4) boasts the strongest distance and going fit in the race — DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ on today's good ground at 1m1f — and last-time-out form 933451 shows a recent win at the same class and same mark (+4), making it the most course-and-conditions-proven runner despite the 16% drift which may simply reflect the amateur nature of the booking.